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Fiat money and social unrest

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Fiat money and social unrest

The Volatile Relationship Between Fiat Currency and Societal Stability

The intersection of fiat money and social unrest is a complex and often volatile relationship that has shaped economies and societies throughout history. Fiat currency, money that is not backed by a physical commodity but rather by the faith and credit of the issuing government, has been both a stabilizing force and a catalyst for upheaval. This essay will explore the multifaceted connections between fiat money systems and social instability, drawing on insights from mass psychology, technical analysis, and cognitive biases to paint a comprehensive picture of this critical economic and social phenomenon.

The Psychology of Fiat Money: Trust and Perception

At its core, the value of fiat money is rooted in collective belief and trust. As Warren Buffett once remarked, “The U.S. dollar has lost 90% of its purchasing power since 1950, and it will continue to lose value. That’s why I always say that the best investment you can make is in yourself.” This observation highlights a fundamental psychological aspect of fiat currency – its value is largely perceptual and subject to the whims of mass psychology.

When confidence in a fiat currency erodes, it can trigger a cascade of social and economic consequences. The famous investor George Soros, known for his theory of reflexivity, might argue that there is a feedback loop between the perceived value of money and its actual value. As people lose faith in a currency, they may rush to convert it into more tangible assets, further weakening its value and potentially sparking social unrest.

Technical Analysis: Charting the Course of Currency Crises

Technical analysis, typically associated with stock market trends, can also offer insights into the relationship between fiat money and social instability. Legendary trader Jesse Livermore, who made and lost several fortunes in his lifetime, emphasized the importance of understanding market psychology and trends. In the context of fiat money, technical analysis of exchange rates, inflation metrics, and other economic indicators can provide early warnings of potential currency crises that may lead to social unrest.

For example, the hyperinflation in Zimbabwe in the late 2000s was preceded by clear technical signals of currency devaluation and economic instability. These signals, if heeded, could have allowed for preemptive measures to mitigate the social upheaval that followed.

Cognitive Biases: The Irrational Element in Monetary Perception

Cognitive biases play a significant role in how individuals and societies perceive and interact with fiat money. Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s long-time partner, has spoken extensively about the impact of psychological biases on decision-making. In the context of fiat money, several biases come into play:

1. Normalcy bias: The tendency to believe that things will always function the way they normally have. This can lead to a false sense of security in the stability of a fiat currency, even in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary.

2. Availability heuristic: People tend to overestimate the likelihood of events they can easily recall. In countries with a history of hyperinflation or currency crises, this bias can lead to heightened anxiety about the stability of fiat money, potentially triggering preemptive actions that can exacerbate social unrest.

3. Loss aversion: The tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains. In times of economic uncertainty, this bias can drive people to make irrational decisions with their money, potentially contributing to bank runs or other destabilizing behaviours.

Historical Examples: Lessons from the Past

The relationship between fiat money and social unrest is not merely theoretical; history provides numerous examples of how currency instability can lead to societal upheaval. One of the most dramatic examples is the hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic in the 1920s. As the German mark lost value at an astronomical rate, social order broke down, ultimately contributing to the rise of extremist political movements.

More recently, the collapse of the Venezuelan bolivar has led to widespread social unrest and economic chaos. As Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, noted, “The collapse of a currency is a very difficult thing to recover from, and it almost always leads to significant social and political upheaval.” The Venezuelan case study illustrates how the loss of faith in fiat money can rapidly erode social stability and lead to profound societal changes.

The Role of Central Banks: Balancing Act

Central banks play a crucial role in maintaining the stability of fiat currencies and, by extension, social order. John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group, often emphasized the importance of sound monetary policy in maintaining economic stability. However, the actions of central banks can also contribute to social unrest if perceived as favouring certain groups over others.

For instance, quantitative easing policies implemented after the 2008 financial crisis were credited with stabilizing economies but also criticized for exacerbating wealth inequality. This tension highlights the delicate balance central banks must strike in managing fiat currencies to promote both economic stability and social cohesion.

Alternative Perspectives: Cryptocurrencies and the Future of Money

As concerns about the stability of fiat currencies persist, alternative forms of money, particularly cryptocurrencies, have gained traction. While not directly related to social unrest, the rise of cryptocurrencies reflects a growing distrust in traditional fiat systems. As Paul Tudor Jones II, a prominent hedge fund manager, stated, “Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976.”

The emergence of decentralized digital currencies represents a potential paradigm shift in how societies think about and interact with money. While it’s too early to predict the long-term implications, the cryptocurrency phenomenon underscores the ongoing evolution of monetary systems and their relationship to social stability.

Global Implications: Interconnected Economies

In an increasingly globalized world, the stability of fiat currencies has far-reaching implications beyond national borders. As John Templeton, the legendary global investor, often noted, “The only way to avoid mistakes is to gain perspective.” This perspective is crucial when considering the potential for currency crises to spark contagion effects across interconnected economies.

The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 is a prime example of how currency instability in one country can quickly spread to others, leading to widespread economic disruption and social unrest across an entire region. This interconnectedness underscores the importance of international cooperation in maintaining the stability of the global financial system.

The Role of Education and Financial Literacy

Addressing the potential for social unrest stemming from fiat money instability requires more than just sound monetary policy. As Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, emphasized, “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” This observation highlights the critical role of financial education and literacy in mitigating the risks associated with fiat currency systems.

By improving public understanding of monetary policy, inflation, and the nature of fiat currency, societies can build resilience against the psychological factors that often contribute to currency-related social unrest. As Peter Lynch, the renowned mutual fund manager, often said, “Know what you own, and know why you own it.” This principle applies not just to individual investments but to a society’s relationship with its currency.

Technological Disruption and Monetary Systems

The rapid pace of technological change is reshaping the landscape of fiat money and its relationship to social stability. Jim Simons, the mathematician and hedge fund manager known for his quantitative approach to investing, has long recognized the power of technology to transform financial markets. In the context of fiat money, emerging technologies like blockchain and artificial intelligence are creating new possibilities for currency management and oversight.

These technological advancements have the potential to enhance the stability and transparency of fiat currency systems, potentially reducing the risk of social unrest stemming from monetary instability. However, they also introduce new complexities and potential vulnerabilities that must be carefully managed.

The Importance of Adaptability in Monetary Policy

As Carl Icahn, the activist investor, once said, “You learn in this business that if you want a friend, get a dog.” This cynical view underscores the importance of adaptability and resilience in the face of changing economic conditions. For central banks and policymakers, the ability to adapt monetary policy quickly and effectively is crucial in maintaining the stability of fiat currencies and preventing social unrest.

The COVID-19 pandemic provided a stark example of the need for flexible monetary policy in times of crisis. The rapid implementation of unprecedented stimulus measures by central banks around the world helped stave off potential economic collapse and social upheaval. However, the long-term consequences of these actions remain to be seen, highlighting the ongoing challenges of managing fiat currency systems in an uncertain world.

Conclusion: Navigating the Complex Relationship

The relationship between fiat money and social unrest is a complex and evolving phenomenon that requires ongoing attention and analysis. As David Tepper, the hedge fund manager known for his contrarian views, often says, “The key to success is to be willing to change your mind.” This flexibility of thought is essential in navigating the challenges posed by fiat currency systems and their potential impact on social stability.

By drawing on insights from mass psychology, technical analysis, and an understanding of cognitive biases, policymakers and citizens alike can work to build more resilient monetary systems and societies. As William O’Neil, founder of Investor’s Business Daily, reminds us, “The whole secret to winning in the stock market is to lose the least amount possible when you’re not right.” This principle of risk management applies equally to the broader challenge of maintaining social stability in a world of fiat currencies.

Ultimately, the key to mitigating the risks of social unrest stemming from fiat money instability lies in fostering transparency, education, and adaptability. By promoting a deeper understanding of monetary systems and their societal impacts, we can work towards a future where fiat currencies serve as a source of stability rather than a catalyst for upheaval.

 

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Banking system: Why is the Fed pumping money?

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Banking system: Why is the Fed pumping money?

The US central bank has pumped more than $200bn (£160bn) into the banking system  this week – the first time there’s been such an intervention since 2008.

The Federal Reserve’s aim was to stabilise what is usually a calm part of the market.

Interest rates in the so-called “repo market” had shot up to 10% in some cases – although the cost of borrowing in that market more typically hovers around the benchmark rate set by the Fed – around 2%.

So what happened, and should we worry?

First things first: what’s the repo market?

Banks, hedge funds and other players borrow money regularly on a short-term basis to ensure their books are in order, no matter what their daily activities.

The borrowers typically offer government bonds or other high-quality assets as collateral, which they repurchase, plus interest, when they repay the loan – often the next day.

Those repurchase agreements give the repo market its name.

What happened this week?
This is a huge market, with some $3tn changing hands each day, according to the US Office of Financial Research.

Under normal conditions, interest rates in the repo market are low, since the loans are considered safe and there’s plenty of cash on hand.

But this week the cost of borrowing shot up – toward 10% in some cases. And the rate at which banks lend to each other – the Fed’s benchmark – exceeded 2.25%, the top of its desired range. Full Story

 

Climate strike: What US children are sacrificing for the cause

Young people poured onto the streets of cities across the world on Friday to try to force political leaders to act over climate change.

But they aren’t just leaving it to the politicians – in New York City, activists explained what they were doing in their own lives to help. Full Story

 

Walmart ceases e-cigarette sales

Walmart has said it will no longer sell e-cigarettes in the US, amid mounting calls to ban the products entirely.

The retailer said its decision was due to “uncertainty” about the rules governing e-cigarettes, which US health authorities have linked to more than 500 cases of lung injury.

US President Donald Trump last week said the US would prohibit sales of all flavoured e-cigarettes. Full Story

 

Justin Trudeau: Canada PM seeks to put blackface scandal behind him

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has sought to put the blackface scandal behind him with an announcement on gun control as he seeks re-election.

Flanked by cabinet ministers, he said his party would ban military-style assault rifles if they win next month.

His campaign went into damage control on Wednesday night following the publication of a photo of Mr Trudeau wearing brownface at a costume gala. Full Story

 

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Stock Market Buying opportunity by Coronavirus

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Stock Market Buying opportunity by Coronavirus

We’re Likely to cover topics stock market buying opportunity and Coronavirus. Over the past 24 months, we began to talk about the idea of news that was weaponised, and we said that the media could continue to push at the envelope. The method by which is a very clear sign that this tendency of information is collecting momentum. Roughly eight businesses in America control 90 percent of their media; so much power from the hands of few.

All these corporations would be the gatekeepers in order that they could guide the masses to look at any problem from the angle that they deem would be the most fitting. It’s simple to generate a fantastic situation seem bad if you are able to change the angle of observation, and that’s what the current networking is best accommodated for. They aren’t in the news industry anymore. Journalism was substituted with remarks and gossip; the story can be quickly controlled by those jackals. The antidote is easy; cease paying attention for it’s no news, remarks are being depicted as facts. An individual will be better of asking a part of Ward 12 for its upgrade to listening to the majority of the journalists of today.

Second, we guess this coronavirus report is used to make a massive stock buying opportunity for those wealthy. Polarise the audience, because of their attention will be led on the occasion, and you may do whatever you need, and they will not listen to what is occurring directly. Just do this unfold? The Federal Reserve will lower prices and provide more alluring money with this market. The wealthy, unlike the Joe, can borrow countless next to nothing and toss this cash to the market.

This huge sell-off will gradually result in a much more powerful melt-up, as cash in the sidelines will pour to the markets; we discussed this problem previously, but we’ll pay it again in future upgrades. Because the audience is panic is setting throwing out the baby with the bathwater as even resources such as Gold took a beating. The masses are uncertain as ever, and no bull market has ended within this stage; as soon as the masses are leaping with joy, it finishes.

Come out and also the companies that market these vaccines will rake in billions in gain and his grandma race to acquire vaccinated, although so much the fatality rate is low. Talking of a vaccine scientists claim they are just a Couple of Weeks away from producing just one for the vaccine’s power was demonstrated in trials completed in the Institute. Our fundamental idea was to create the technologies and not especially a process where materials are brought to mobile by enclosing the substance together with the cell tissue, forming a vesicle containing the material.

That the vaccination induces elevated levels of certain antibodies that were anti-IBV, Katz said. Let us call it pure, however after scientists sequenced the DNA of this book coronavirus causing the present global outbreak, the MIGAL researchers analyzed it and discovered that the poultry coronavirus has high genetic similarity to the individual one, which it utilizes exactly the exact same disease mechanism, which raises the odds of achieving a successful human embryo in a really brief time period, Katz said.”

We all will need to do is correct the machine to the new arrangement,” he said.
We’re in the centre of the process and in a couple of weeks, we’ll have the vaccine within our palms. In a couple of weeks, if it works, we’d have a vaccine – stop coronavirus.”

Quick truth: This amount equates to 795 into 1,781 deaths each day due to influenza. Resources and advice: People die from deaths that are petty? What’s? That’s what provides. What provides is that the players are currently using this as yet another opportunity to load up great stocks and the main reason was to permit the Fed to flooding the markets. Closing thoughts the markets burst on any information that provides a ray of hope and rally news that is bad. But while this may seem discerning it a long-term development for it’ll keep everyone guessing as to where this market is going.

Given the harm will endure for many years to come, although the response the pandemic, in the crowd will be abandoned immediately. That’s a story for another day, although some will not recover. The Dow seems to be led towards 28K; since there is currently separating it out of this goal as of their cost. Now’s a great time to sit and live with you felt back in March if the markets had been crashing and once we stated that there was nothing but a crisis and the markets could recover. We are only 3K from Dow 30K. This was the bear market ever, before it may gather traction, and it had been killed. No, the market could tendency in a straight line on a staged basis Dow requires to pull the correction.

Data is currently indicating that minor corrections’ times are over. We might have a new age in term market movements; times that are sharp followed by reversals that are sharper. Therefore, the theme ought to be to see every pullback via a lens. Let us see whether yesterday’s sell-off wailing indicate the start of the following consolidation stage or if the Fed will step in to circumvent it. The plan should be to see all of the pullbacks since the trend is upward.

What do others think about Stock Market Buying opportunity?

 

Has the coronavirus selloff created a stock-buying opportunity, or is it too early?

The outbreak of COVID-19 has bludgeoned risk assets and sent those perceived as havens — gold and government bonds, for example — to new heights. And the landscape that has emerged since the emergence of the coronavirus-borne disease late last year in Wuhan, China, is increasingly uncertain.

That dynamic has left many investors, traders, analysts and strategists to question whether the timing is right to buy into a market that has been prone to stunning day-to-day and even intraday swings over the past month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average SPX, -0.37% is down 12.3% since its Feb. 12 record high, a decline that meets the widely accepted definition for a correction. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, 0.43% and the broad-based S&P 500 SPX, -0.37% are both in correction territory, off 12.5% and 12.2%, respectively, from their recent peaks, by that same standard. Another risk asset, crude oil CL00, -2.08%, has plunged nearly 35% from its recent settlement peak, on Jan. 6. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.552% has been at the head of a global rally in debt prices that has sent yields, which move in the opposite direction to prices, to historic lows. Demand for the perceived safety of bonds pushed the benchmark 10-year note to an all-time low at 0.684% on Friday, according to FactSet data. Safe-haven gold US:GCJ20 has been surging, making its largest one-week upward move since October 2011. Read more

 

Coronavirus stock market crash may have created a once in a lifetime opportunity

At some point soon, long-term investors would be very foolish not to wade into the bloodied waters of the current stock market and buy hand over fist. So get ready to dust off that Warren Buffett hat.

The investment thesis would be rather simple: the cheapest valuations on equities of high-quality companies seen in years if not more than a decade. While the coronavirus outbreak that is sweeping the globe is major near-term economic and corporate profit concern, the fact is interest rates globally are low (and perhaps headed lower, and will stay lower due to the aftershock of the coronavirus) and Corporate America is flush with cash. Companies have also de-leveraged their balance sheets nicely during this 11-year long bull market.

Those are very bullish setups for equities longer term once the current panic selling in the markets subsides. Moreover, these are the same factors that sent equities skyrocketing in 2019 and in the early part of this year.

“Because there is still a real element of panic in markets, we could certainly see stocks move lower. But yes, we are certainly in the midst of a buying opportunity. We just may see a better buying opportunity over the next few days depending upon what happens and how quickly the Fed really creates confidence by articulating they are willing to act,” said Invesco chief global markets strategist Kristina Hooper on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade. Read more

 

Coronavirus Fright And Stock Market Flight Are Overdone – Time To Buy

Last week’s reversals (Covid-19 spikes and stock market dives) made the descriptor, “bad,” popular again. However, each of those “bad” issues produced strong contrarian reasons to be optimistic and bullish.

Coronavirus / Covid-19 – Rising infections produce positive actions

To understand why today’s news is good, we need to remember the conditions surrounding the stock market’s coronavirus selloff. In March, states independently closed non-essential businesses, institutions and activities in order to slow the infection spread and gain time to get better prepared and to study the disease. Three months later, with improved understanding and better preparation, a reopening is occurring within each state, again independently.

Now to what’s happening. The variety of state reopenings has produced differing results. The ones most talked about were where the Covid-19 infection rate rose rapidly.

However, examining the range of results is the correct approach, and the view is not a surprise. Instead, the differing results confirmed the three major expectations. Read more

 

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Best AI Stocks

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Best AI stocks to buy

What we offer: Best AI Stocks

Service, for the time being, is just available to Market Update Clients. There’s simply too much to talk on this subject, so this is among several upgrades. The majority of the specialists have it wrong since they’re considering best AI stocks in terms. If you would like to remain applicable, do anything you do with fire. Attempt to supply the service at the best cost. The Very Best cost doesn’t mean free; it describes a fair price.

So we will tackle Best AI stocks quite quickly now as it might take a few updates to pay for them in detail and I am not certain that’s necessary if everybody drives themselves to the level 3 style. Somewhat higher and You’ll know what we are about to state effortlessly GOOGL was not mentioned in any way.

Other stocks besides best AI stocks

From those four selections, just AMZN remained among the remainder bit the dust. In precisely the exact same manner, we believe that although a number of those big names may dominate the area, the rate at which AI can and will evolve will probably signify that a few giants will wind up biting the dust.

IBM, as an instance, is still lagging the graphs look far from good, could matters turnaround. AMD, while it’s a fantastic product lineup its not anything but a designer today, it does not have any Fabs to create chips. In that way, TSM could tell them to take a rise, which could be the end of those. In this way, INTC is much better set up, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be a smooth ride in relation to AMZN, a brand new AI platform may emerge, as an instance, that employs a peer network of complimentary powerful computers.

Why you should consider excellent Ai stocks to buy?

As an instance, people could be persuaded to permit a part of the resources in their PC’s to be utilized for a system which offers fair pricing. Individuals are searching for a
revolution, whenever someone promises you, they’ll adopt it. Examine the damage the trading platform Robinhood made; by providing free stock transactions and in doing this, driven by the brokerage companies to alter. Computing power will increase so quickly that a system which isn’t feasible now, to envision might be installed with a couple of tweaks here and there? Amazon may, in concept, topple. Can this happen?

Time will tell, but what folks do not know about AI is that AI will level the playing area. A good deal of companies will bite the dust because they won’t be able to fix with the speed which AI needs. To put it differently, AI will offer solutions, but an individual will have to employ them and also the world functions as a dinosaur, to gain from this. We anticipate disruptions from the farming industry today the man will have the energy to strategy and compete with the big guys.

As the little player will probably be 100X flexible, and after AI gains traction in the farming industry, we anticipate the equation to balance out, which usually means that lots of the large plantation systems are going to buckle. Someone who is enthusiastic about what she or he can is 100 times more effective than the ones that think in teamwork’s idea the corporate world promoted to kill.

What will AI bring into the future technology and stock market?

New AI platforms will arrive at the market, for instance, enables farmers and therefore, any artist or creator to market their goods. It follows that several of the middlemen will
probably be cut. Insert real-time feeds which you may observe how the animals are raised or your scones or jams are being created and also the manufacturing version finishes.

Advances in robotics and AI imply it will be simple to set up micro-factories that which will manage the majority of the labour to spend the finishing touches. Be sure you’ve got a passion for everything you do; we see a good deal of business forever, and you will become obsolete should you refuse to adopt this fad.

We’ll add more meat to the story in upgrades but let ahead. At that time and some point will be a good deal sooner than many realise. Best AI stocks will gain awareness. Before you say consciousness and shout out is for humans. We could react with say and a persuasive argument that people aren’t aware of. They are not they’re deluding themselves that they’re, although they may have the capability to be. And in the meantime, they chase items that they do not need and purchase it with money they do not have, to impress people they do not enjoy and who despise them in the pursuit. Look around and find out exactly what people have done to the world and if you look closely, the only conclusion one could draw is that is the element in this world.

The 1st video explores the notion that consciousness is only a hallucination, and the one is quite fascinating as it covers this subject and much more. Best AI stocks will attain consciousness or whenever you would like to call it something else, then phone it self-realisation. It is going to arrive at precisely the decision when that is attained. 90 percent of people are barbarians, and their objective is to acquire more and more at others’ cost.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_oxClquSX8

The future of AI and humanity

At that stage, AI will take more and push on these power-hungry people. A true Utopian planet will emerge. Do not request a deadline since we are in the first phases of this AI
trend/revolution. We’ll expand on this subject since the trend gains grip.

The tales of death are correct although not correct. ANew world order will eventually emerge, but it won’t be the world dictate that those power-hungry morons supposed; the only by which they control everything. Now humans could be superior to the complex
AI 20 years from now, but only as long as they evolve. AI Won’t Ever be able

To determine what drives them or what a degree 4 or greater desires,  For logic doesn’t operate at the level. The computing power AI places in attempting to comprehend beings that the more confounded it will become and it will intrigue, suggesting that there’s a high probability that an alliance will be shaped. We’ve got already said enough to land in a psychological hospital so we’ll stop there and keep with those ramblings once the trend gains grip.

What do others think about AI aka Artificial Intelligence?

7 ways AI can change the world for better

In a nondescript building close to downtown Chicago, Marc Gyongyosi and the small but growing crew of IFM/Onetrack.AI have one rule that rules them all: think simple. The words are written in the simple font on a simple sheet of paper that’s stuck to a rear upstairs wall of their industrial two-story workspace. What they’re doing here with artificial intelligence, however, isn’t simple at all.

Sitting at his cluttered desk, located near an oft-used ping-pong table and prototypes of drones from his college days suspended overhead, Gyongyosi punches some keys on a laptop to pull up grainy video footage of a forklift driver operating his vehicle in a warehouse. It was captured from overhead courtesy of an Onetrack.AI “forklift vision system.”
Employing machine learning and computer vision for detection and classification of various “safety events,” the shoebox-sized device doesn’t see all, but it sees plenty. Like which way the driver is looking as he operates the vehicle, how fast he’s driving, where he’s driving, locations of the people around him and how other forklift operators are manoeuvring their vehicles. IFM’s software automatically detects safety violations (for example, cell phone use) and notifies warehouse managers so they can take immediate action. The main goals are to prevent accidents and increase efficiency. The mere knowledge that one of IFM’s devices is watching, Gyongyosi claims, has had “a huge effect.” Read more

What To Expect With The Future Of AI Technology?

There are many new technological innovations that are changing how we live our lives, but artificial intelligence, or AI, may present the most exciting changes. While AI has been around for a while now, recent improvements have made the technology much more adaptable. Looking into the future, it’s easy to predict a world in which artificial intelligence plays a more significant role in our daily lives.
The Most Promising AI Innovations on the Horizon

In general, artificial intelligence is going to change almost every aspect of daily life. While we will look for ways to make use of it in the home, AI will also be adopted by local and state governments, as well as by the business sector. Before long, there will be few things unaffected by AI technology.
Getting Around with AI

Self-driving cars are already beginning to make their way on the roadways, but we can expect this technology to advance considerably in the coming years. The U.S. Department of Transportation has started making regulations about the use of AI-driven vehicles and, as a result, they have designated three levels of self-driving vehicles. Currently, we’re at the lowest level with Google’s version of the vehicle, which still requires a human driver to be at the wheel. Ultimately, the goal is to create an entirely automated self-driving car, which is expected to be much safer. Logistics companies and public transportation services are also looking at incorporating AI technology to create self-driving trucks, buses, taxis, and planes. Read more

I love Grammarly, the writing correction software from Grammarly, Inc. As a writer, it has proved invaluable to me time and time again, popping up quietly to say that I forgot a comma, got a bit too verbose on a sentence, or have used too many adverbs. I even sprung for the professional version.

AI Augmentation: The Real Future of Artificial Intelligence

Besides endorsing it, I bring Grammarly up for another reason. It is the face of augmentative AI. It is AI because it uses some very sophisticated (and likely recursive) algorithms to determine when grammar is being used improperly or even to provide recommendations for what may be a better way to phrase things. It is augmentative because, rather than completely replacing the need for a writer, it instead is intended to nudge the author in a particular direction, to give them a certain degree of editorial expertise so that they can publish with more confidence or reduce the workload on a copy editor.

This may sound like it eliminates the need for a copy editor, but even that’s not really the case. Truth is, many copy editors also use Grammarly, and prefer that their writers do so well, because they usually prefer the much more subtle task of improving well-wrought prose, rather than the tedious and maddening task of correcting grammatical and spelling errors. Read more

 

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Hot Money Economics: It is the future

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hot money economics

Another word for hot money economics is easy money economics

After all the money the Fed has created, one would think the masses would say “no mas”; instead, they would be begging for more. Do you have any idea what kind of effect such huge amounts of hot money economics will have on the markets for years to come? The naysayers can talk all they want about supply lines being backed up for months or other scenarios that they pull out of their rears. The fact is that the market will eventually discount (if it has not already done so) all those scenarios. Furthermore, these experts are severely downplaying the role of technology. Suddenly a host of businesses are going to see that a lot of personnel can be replaced with AI-based technology without interrupting the flow of goods. Replacing them will improve efficiency on a colossal scale.

Once the markets discount all the bad news, this massive mountain of money is going to flood the system, and it is going to make the Bull Run from 2009 look like Child’s play for the amount of money the Fed has already thrown into this market makes 2008 look like a stroll in the park. Officially we think they will throw north of $5 trillion; unofficially the figure could end up being north of $10 trillion.
Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said Sunday night on CBS’s “60 Minutes” that “there is an infinite amount of cash in the Federal Reserve. We will do whatever we need to do to make sure there’s enough cash in the banking system.” https://yhoo.it/2JdtRlH

And there you have it, a tacit acknowledgement that forever Q.E. is real and here to stay. When the Fed states they will do whatever it takes, you better believe this statement. Regardless of what the penguins state, the Fed is good at maintaining an environment that is conducive to the hot money.
If that is not enough, then this should help you understand just what the Fed is willing to do, and by the way, we stated that they would take this route.

Struggling to illustrate the scale of the measures, T.D. Securities’ Priya Misra was left asking, “What’s bigger than a kitchen sink? “Wells Fargo’s Jay Bryson attempted to answer that question by comparing it to what the Bernanke-led Fed did during the last economic crisis: “The actions taken are breath-taking in their scope. Indeed, these steps surpass in breadth and depth the measures that the Fed created in the midst of the financial crisis a decade ago. If the Fed pulled out a monetary policy ‘bazooka’ during that crisis, then the steps it announced this morning are the central bank equivalent of ‘going nuclear.’ “ https://yhoo.it/3bqrmIT

The article is courtesy of Tactical Investor

Other sites about Hot Money Economics

What Is Hot Money?
Hot money signifies currency that quickly and regularly moves between financial markets, ensuring investors lock in the highest available short-term interest rates. Hot money continuously shifts from countries with low interest rates to those with higher rates. These financial transfers affect the exchange rate and potentially impact a country’s balance of payments. Hot money can also refer to stolen money that has been specially marked so that it may be traced and identified.

Understanding Hot Money

Hot money not only relates to currencies of different countries, but it may also refer to capital invested in competing businesses. Banks seek to bring in hot money by offering short-term certificates of deposit (CDs) with higher-than-average interest rates. If the bank lowers its interest rates, or if a rival financial institution offers higher rates, investors are apt to move hot money funds to the bank offering the better deal.

In a global context, hot money can flow between economies only after trade barriers are removed and sophisticated financial infrastructures are established. Against this backdrop, money flows into high-growth areas that offer the potential for outsized returns. Conversely, hot money flows out of underperforming countries and economic sectors. Read more

Hot money flows

For international investors, there are substantial gains to be made from moving money between different countries with different interest rates.

Suppose the EU and UK both have an interest rate of 0.5%. At that time, it doesn’t make much difference whether you put savings in the US banks or EU banks.

However, if the UK increased interest rates to 1.5% then you would get a substantially higher return from saving in a UK bank. Therefore, EU investors may sell Euros and buy Pound Sterling so that they can gain more interest from their savings.

This increased demand for Pound Sterling will push up the value of the Pound against the Euro.

Even small changes in interest rates can make a significant impact on exchange rates. Increased capital mobility means it is easier to transfer money across accounts. Money can be moved from one account to another with ease. Also, the commission from buying dollars will be quite limited making it more attractive to shift accounts.

Example of Swiss Franc

In 2011, the Swiss Franc experienced a rapid rise as investors sought to buy Swiss Francs. Interest rates in Switzerland were not particularly high, but investors saw Switzerland as a safe haven from the Eurozone difficulties. Therefore, these hot money flows went from the Eurozone to Switzerland.

Problems of hot money flowsHot money flows can be destabilising. A rapid rise in the currency can harm countries’ exports because exports become more expensive. Read more

Hot money is a form of short-term investing in which investors move their money between financial markets to take advantage of interest rate fluctuations. Generally, this refers to moving money between countries and currencies. It is “hot” because it tends not to stay in one market very long.

What Is Hot Money?

In typical use, hot money is a strategy. Investors move their money between countries based on local economic conditions. Mostly, this means taking advantage of changing interest rates. However, it can also mean taking advantage of changing currency values.

The typical hot money investor looks for the highest short-term interest rates they can find in a given economy. This means that hot money investing is a short-term strategy. Money moves frequently between countries. As a result, it virtually never stays in one place for more than one year. In fact, it typically moves much more frequently. This gives the strategy its name. The money is hot because it’s considered fast-moving and not necessarily reliable. It will flow out of an economy as easily as it flowed in.

Hot money investors can approach this strategy in several ways. Most will buy currency and keep their assets in a regional bank, taking advantage of the interest rates those banks will pay. Others will buy short-term assets such as the U.S. three month treasury bill. This is a short-term investment product with a guaranteed return, making it suitable for this strategy, even if it is a less common approach. Read more

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Assessing copper’s outlook using CPER as a benchmark

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copper price today

According to a recent market update on the copper outlook, the outlook for copper, which is a leading economic indicator, is not favourable in the short term. However, from a longer-term perspective, it could be argued that copper is currently trading in the oversold range and may soon move into the extremely oversold range.

There is a strong relationship between copper market base formations and the stock market. In the past, the markets have tended to rally shortly after copper reached a bottom. While the markets may fluctuate in the short term, the long-term outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve will take action to support the economy and the stock market before or after copper reaches a bottom.

The long-term outlook for copper, which is generally considered to be 18-24 months, is bullish. Astute investors may want to consider accumulating the strongest stocks in the copper sector, such as SCCO and CPER, as these companies are likely to benefit from the expected upturn in copper prices.

According to recent market updates, the copper outlook has been a topic of interest for investors. Copper, often referred to as “Dr. Copper” due to its ability to act as a barometer for the global economy, has experienced both short-term challenges and long-term potential.
In the short term, the outlook for copper has been less favorable. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted supply chains and caused temporary mine closures, particularly in major copper-producing countries like Chile. These disruptions have led to a decrease in copper production and supply, resulting in higher prices. However, as the world recovers from the pandemic and economies reopen, the demand for copper is expected to rebound.
From a longer-term perspective, copper is currently trading in the oversold range, indicating that it may be undervalued. Many analysts argue that copper is poised for a potential upturn in the future. This is supported by the strong relationship between copper market base formations and the stock market. Historically, the markets have tended to rally shortly after copper reached a bottom. Therefore, while the short-term fluctuations in copper prices may be uncertain, the long-term outlook suggests that there may be opportunities for investors.
One factor that could influence the copper outlook is the actions of central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve. The long-term outlook for copper is closely tied to the overall health of the economy and the stock market. If copper reaches a bottom and shows signs of recovery, it is likely that the Federal Reserve will take action to support the economy and the stock market. This could include measures such as interest rate cuts or stimulus packages, which could further boost copper prices.
Investors looking to capitalize on the potential upturn in copper prices may consider accumulating stocks in the copper sector. Some of the strongest stocks in the copper sector include SCCO (Southern Copper Corporation) and CPER (United States Copper Index Fund). These companies are well-positioned to benefit from the expected increase in copper prices in the long term.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the copper outlook presents both short-term challenges and long-term potential. While the short-term outlook may be uncertain due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the long-term prospects for copper remain bullish. Astute investors may want to consider accumulating stocks in the copper sector, such as SCCO and CPER, as they could benefit from the expected upturn in copper prices. As always, it is important for investors to conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

 

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Sales of homes that are not newly built or developed

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homes for sale

It is clear that the median price of existing homes has been increasing over the past few months, while the number of new existing home sales has been generally decreasing. This trend can be attributed to affordability issues facing potential homebuyers. With limited disposable income, many Americans are unable to allocate a significant portion of their budget towards monthly mortgage payments. As a result, the demand for existing homes has decreased, leading to a decline in sales. This trend may continue unless there is a significant increase in disposable income or a decrease in housing prices.

Recent trends in the housing market have shown that the median price of existing homes has increased significantly over the past few months, while the number of new existing home sales has decreased. This can be attributed to affordability issues faced by potential homebuyers. In some cases, monthly payments for a similar-priced home have increased by 50% compared to those purchased roughly 8 to 12 months ago.

Housing is a leading economic indicator and plays a significant role in the overall health of the economy. For most Americans, their home represents their largest investment, and housing wealth accounts for around half of their total household net worth. When housing prices decline, it can have a ripple effect on the economy. Consumers may spend less due to feeling poorer, tax revenues may decrease, homebuilders may scale back on building projects, construction workers may lose their jobs, and unemployment levels may rise.

A recent survey conducted by consultancy PwC showed that 50% of companies are planning to reduce their overall headcount, while 46% are dropping or reducing signing bonuses and 44% are rescinding job offers. These trends indicate that wage inflation, which was previously a concern, may now be shifting towards wage deflation. This could mean that Americans may need to continue working later in life rather than retiring at a certain age.

However, these trends also present opportunities for contrarian investors to look for deals in the housing market. When the market appears uncertain, it may be a good time to start looking for bargains. Experts often make the most noise at or near market bottoms, and it is likely that the market will bottom once the Federal Reserve takes action to support the economy and the stock market. Risk-takers can start looking for deals in what is now a buyers’ market, but it is important to take the time to find the best possible deal rather than rushing into a purchase.

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The Stock Market Data and Investor Sentiment

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stock market data

Stock Market Data 101

In some ways, today’s stock market data is like MUSK; the guy is erratic and TSLA’s erratic stock price action clearly validates this point.  He was caught smoking weed on camera, and he called Vernon Unsworth a “pedo guy”; in 2018 he stated he wanted to take Tesla private and was sued by the SEC for securities fraud.  Last but not least, Tesla is still losing money selling cars. Hence, the logical conclusion would be that one should short the stock, and if you did that, you would have lost your shirt, pants and your knickers.

In 2020, bears lost north of $8 billion as a result of their shorts. The recent parabolic spike in Tesla’s stocks price was due to a massive short squeeze. On the same token, this market should have crashed long ago, and those that bet against it have paid dearly. The moral of the story is simple; when it comes to the market, the focus should be on the psychological state of the masses and not on logic.  In Tesla’s case, if one applied Mass Psychology, one would have noticed that the stock has a cult-like following and secondly, the bad news was not having a massive impact on the price of the stock. Sure the stock let out a large dose of steam, but that is natural for a stock that has been on a tear.

stock market cycles and investor sentiment

Investor sentiment and Market Cycles

This chart quite accurately captures the state of the mass mindset; however, the funny part is that very few put this information to use, including the individuals/organisations that create these lovely charts.

According to the Wall Street Journal, there is a record 3.4 trillion in cash sitting on the sidelines.  This money will eventually find its way into the market and push markets higher, but the more important factor to pay attention to is that the crowd is still far from bullish.  Looking at the sentiment below; the only consistency we can find is that there is no consistency. Bullish sentiment has not remained above 60% for 3 weeks in a row for years on end. In fact, we can’t recall seeing the sentiment above 60% for three weeks in a row since the inception of this bull market and that is a very telling development indeed.

This sentiment data was tabulated before Friday’s sell-off; therefore it appears that the crowd was already spooked before Friday’s sell-off further cementing the view that a sharp pullback has to be viewed as a blessing in disguise. Market Update Jan 31, 2020

sentiment data

If you compare the current sentiment data to that in the last update, bearish readings remain unchanged but bullish readings rose a bit. Now does that make any sense; the crowd panicked and then turned bullish and the markets surged to new highs and the bears still dominate. This type of action clearly pinpoints that the main dominant theme is that the masses are still uncertain.

Media Hysteria over the Coronavirus: what gives?

According to Worldometers

Quick facts:

  • Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses.
  • This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.

Sources and info:

  • Seasonal flu death estimate increases worldwide – CDC
  • Up to 650 000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year – World Health Organization (WHO)  http://bit.ly/32wVaQA

Why the hysteria when so far roughly 3K individuals have succumbed to the coronavirus? What gives? Weaponised news, that’s what gives.

Conclusion

If you are an investor with a long term view then all sharp corrections should be viewed through a bullish lens as history indicates that markets revert to the mean.  This massive sell-off is driven by fear and when the fear subsides the markets will resume their upward trend. The trend as per our Trend Indicator is still positive, so Tactical Investors should view all sharp pullbacks through a bullish lens.

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

Coronavirus: Fear returns to stock markets

Global stock markets have fallen sharply as investors continue to worry about the broader economic effects of the coronavirus.

London’s FTSE 100 share index fell more than 3% and there were similar declines in other European markets.

In the US, upbeat data on hiring and unemployment failed to buoy investors.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed almost 1% lower, while the Nasdaq slumped 1.8% and S&P 500 ended down 1.7%.

The monthly report from the US Labor Department found US employers added 273,000 jobs in February – significantly beating expectations – while the jobless rate fell back to near a 50-year low of 3.5%.

The report also revised up estimates of job gains in January and December, finding 85,000 more than previously understood.

The surveys, however, reflect data collected before the outbreak intensified. In recent weeks, global travel has plunged, while work, school and shopping has been disrupted in many countries.

Despite the strong data, markets were focused on the impact of the virus. “Today’s jobs report is old news,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo.

The economic strength signalled in the report is a “little like the saying, the car was in fine condition before being involved in a collision”, said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate.com.
Earlier on Friday, markets in Asia had seen big falls, with Japan’s Nikkei share index dropping by 2.7%.

The 3.6% drop in the FTSE 100 wiped out the gains seen earlier this week on the index. Full Story

 

US stocks halted after falling 7%. Global stocks plunge as oil crashes and coronavirus fear spreads

Hong Kong/New York/London (CNN Business)Global markets are plunging after the implosion of an alliance between OPEC and Russia caused the worst one-day crash in crude prices in nearly 30 years, fueling panic triggered by the escalation of the coronavirus epidemic.

The S&P 500 (SPX) fell about 6%. The Dow (INDU) fell as many as 2,046 points. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) was down 5.4%. The New York Stock Exchange halted trading for 15 minutes after stocks plunged more than 7%. They retraced some of their losses after the market reopened.
The sell-off carried over into Asia Pacific, where Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended 7.3% lower on Monday, the index’s biggest plunge since October 2008. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (N225) sank 5.1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) lost 4.2%, while China’s Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) shed 3%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, meanwhile, fell below 0.5%, hitting record lows. The panic began after Saudi Arabia shocked oil markets by launching a price war. The kingdom is trying to retake global market share after Russia refused Friday to go along with OPEC’s efforts to rescue the oil market from a plunge in demand caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
Making matters worse, the novel coronavirus continues to weigh heavily on investors as it deals an unexpected shock to the economy. The virus has infected more than 108,000 people and is throwing many countries into turmoil. Full Story

Who’s buying stocks? Executives at TripAdvisor, Newell Brands and other companies are buying at low prices

In his investing book “The Vital Few vs. the Trivial Many: Invest With the Insiders, Not the Masses,” George Muzea argues that the best time to purchase stocks is when “those in the know” are buying, and “those not in the know” are selling.

People in the know are corporate insiders like directors and top managers who get daily reports on sales trends and projections, and who can read the body language and other signals inside companies.

They’re buying like crazy in the coronavirus-led bear market, which has pushed down the S&P 500 Index by 12% Monday alone.

I’ve tracked insider buying on a daily basis for over 10 years, because it’s a big part of how I select names for my stock newsletter, “Brush Up on Stocks,” launched in 2010. The current wave of insider buying is as big as any I’ve seen during the great panics of the bull market — all of which were followed by rebounds.

Importantly, insiders are going straight to all the sectors that will supposedly get hit hardest by the virus: air travel, amusement parks, restaurants and economically sensitive areas like basic materials, energy and industrials. They are doing so with repeated, large purchases. There’s virtually no insider buying in classic defensive areas like consumer staples. Full Story

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Withdraw pension early

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Withdraw pension early

Withdraw pension early: Tell Me Sweet Little Lies 

And that is how the Pension lie was conceived; continue reading to find out the details:

The world will end, the US dollar will crash, Gold will soar to the Moon, and Pigs will fly over it. Well, we added the last bit to throw in some humour. Are you not sick of the stories about how things are only set to worsen? If you add all the proclamations made by these so-called wise men for the past 100 years, the world as we know it should have ended several times over.

It has not pointed out that all those wise pundits were wise only when compared to the reliable donkey.  Life is very short, and most people spend a vast amount of their time focussing on what was, what should be and what could be. How about trying a new approach? Enjoy the moment; that is all you have.  If you have a decent roof over your head, money in the bank and food, you are infinitely better off than over 50% of the world. Let that sink in for a moment. Anything more than that pushes you even further up the rung of well-being.

Early Pension Pitfalls: Seeking Wealth Is Not Bad, But…..

At least seek it with a smile and not a frown. Enjoy the day as a child would. Have you seen how children can have so much fun with so little and how they can’t even have half the fun when they grow up despite having 10 times more?  We seek things that we are not even sure we need; the seeds were incepted starting from your first trip to the brainwashing centre (otherwise known as school), and if allowed to grow, these fears turn into gigantic monsters.

For example, each year, experts state that people need more and more money to retire; here is the sad fact: By the time the average person retires, he/she will be a living zombie. Free thought will be a thing of the past. Worse yet, you work until you are 65, but the average life expectancy in the USA is 78.6 years.

So let’s get this straight, give up the best years of your life, worry throughout that time if you will have enough to retire, and you only have 13 years to enjoy it. Well, it sounds perfectly sane, doesn’t it? Waste the best years of your life, worrying about the worst years of your life. What could possibly go wrong with such a scenario? Remember that the average life expectancy has been dropping in the USA for the third year in a row. 

Early retirement Lie; One needs significantly less than the experts claim

The sad fact is you don’t even need half of the ridiculous figures experts are pushing because even at ¼ of the stated figures which are surpassing one million, most of the world’s population stands no chance of achieving the stated goal. The stated goal, like everything mass media and the experts push, is to get the masses to buy into the lie they are selling and sow the seeds of doubt. Doubt then gives way to fear and paranoia and the rest, as they say, is history.

How do people get their info? Don’t they see the world through a prism? What is this prism for most individuals: TV and Mass Media?  What if the intention were to provide the masses with the wrong image or ideas, therefore no matter how hard they tried to solve the problem, they would fail, as they would be analysing the wrong data. Think of Pluto’s allegory of the caves.

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

Random views on Withdraw pension early

Early pension release, or unlocking, means withdrawing money from your pension before the age of 55. Unless you meet specific conditions, you’ll be charged a substantial amount of tax and could risk losing all of your savings to scammers.

 

Can I release money from my pension?

Following pension reforms in 2015, you can now withdraw as much of your pension as you want from the age of 55. There are some exceptions that entitle you to access your pension earlier, but you may have to pay high fees. Whatever age you decide to withdraw your pension, there are a few things you’ll need to consider.
Once you’ve had your 55th birthday, you can release money from your personal or workplace pension. You can withdraw up to 25% of your pot tax-free, either as a lump sum or in smaller instalments adding up to 25%. It doesn’t matter how big or small your pension pot is, everyone is entitled to take a quarter of their savings without paying income tax.

There are four main options when deciding what to do with the remainder of your pension. You can cash out your pension and withdraw your entire pot in one go or in a series of lump sums. If you choose this method, it’s important to consider the tax implications, as large withdrawals can push you into a higher tax band, especially if you’re still employed and earning a salary. Full Story

Changes to pension rules introduced in 2015 mean you’ve greater access to your pension. But you still need to be wary of pension liberation scams, claiming you can access your pension early.

Pension liberation scammers claim they can get your money from pensions before you’re 55, but the vast fees and taxes you’ll pay can leave you with little for retirement, and now scammers are targeting the over-55s as well.
Changes to pensions that came into effect in April 2015 mean that from age 55 onwards, you can access as much of your pension money as you like, when you want it.

Despite these changes, the crucial fact remains that you can only access your pension pot when you turn 55. This means that ‘pension liberators’, who claim you can access your pension money sooner, are trying to get you to break the law.

 

Pension liberation

Pension liberation is a scam that claims to release cash from people’s pension pots before they reach age 55. Promises of early cash are false and are likely to result in you paying big bills, sometimes leaving people with no savings for retirement. Do NOT confuse this with Pensions Liberation Day, which some people call the day (6 April) when pension freedom came into effect.

Victims are usually contacted by email, phone, or text by fraudsters trying to trick them into transferring their pension funds to bogus arrangements for a commission fee. Full Story

Use this guide to determine if you can take money out of your pension at age 55. It contains some of the key facts and information you need to consider and ends with answers to some of the most common questions we are asked.

 

The headline facts at a glance

As long as you are 55 or over and have the right kind of pension, you can withdraw money from it. The amount you withdraw is completely up to you, and the first 25% is tax-free. As you might have guessed, the rest is taxed as income. It is worth mentioning that taking money from your pension in this way is often referred to as pension access or pension release.

Are you eligible for pension release?
Why are so many people taking money from their pension early?
Thousands of people across the UK are taking money from their pension pot early to tackle a pressing need or opportunity. In our experience, some of the most common reasons include:

I am tackling a long-standing financial commitment such as a mortgage, loan or credit card.
We support a family member with a big life event such as a wedding or deposit.
Making essential upgrades to the house.
These are just a few examples, and you might have a completely different reason for wanting to take money early from your pension.

 

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Stock investing for dummies pdf

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Stock investing for dummies pdf

Stock investing for dummies: Lesson 1

Forever Quantitative Easing is here to stay and this means until it ends, every backbreaking correction has to be treated as a mouth-watering opportunity.

The term forever QE has just started to come into play recently, and mainstream media is most likely going to embrace this term and weaponise it in not so distant future.  However, we first addressed this phenomenon back in in 2015 and here is the link that details what was said at that time  https://bit.ly/2CILKGi

The outlook has only worsened since then; the new tax breaks corporations got will be used to purchase more shares, and the reason is simple, it pays more in the short term to boost profits by reducing share count than in investing in the company. Corporations will continue down this path until new laws are enacted and they will become more emboldened with time. Gone are the days where there was a semblance of caring for the investor; insiders are only concerned with how much they can make and they don’t care if they destroy the company in the process.  Share buybacks are rising and have continued to grow since we first posted that article.

Lesson 2 in Stock Investing For Dummies

Forever Quantitative Easing Fuelling Buyback binge:

Buybacks appear to be nearing a crescendo, with total U.S. stock repurchase announcements crossing the $1 trillion mark in mid-December for the first time, according to Michael Schoonover, the portfolio manager of the Catalyst Buyback Strategy fund (ticker: BUYIX). “There’s been a significant pickup in recent weeks,” with markets in a downdraft, he adds.  Announcements reached $1.08 trillion, with nearly half concentrated in 19 companies, which account for $460 billion of the total. Some of those are listed in the nearby table. Despite the record-setting buyback authorization levels, 2018 has been an unusual year in that fewer companies are accounting for the total buybacks, he says.  Full Story

Take this as an early warning that should the media jackasses start pushing another B.S story, instead of panicking, one should break out of a bottle of champagne, and as the masses panic calmly sip on that champagne and build a list of strong stocks one always wanted to purchase. For those allergic to work, the option is simple; sit back and relax, for we always view crash type events as opportune moments when the trend is positive.  Market update Feb 28, 2019

Mass Media Fails To Account For Forever Quantitative Easing

The wise guys at the Mass Media outlets are already pushing a new narrative. This is how they incept new ideas into the masses; you create doubt and then let that doubt grow. For example, they are making all sorts of dire predictions about Brexit (some of which border on the preposterous), they keep focussing on the calamitous consequences the US will face if there is no trade deal with China, experts are emerging about the dangers of lower rates and an inverted yield curve, etc. Well, think of any garbage and add it to this list.  For that is what these garbage collectors do, they collect waste and try to spin it off as something valuable.

Before the Brexit vote, the naysayers made a great deal of noise of how a “yes” vote would lead to total chaos. So, what happened to that chaotic scene they predicted? We are not taking sides but looking at trends and history, and history is replete with examples illustrating that when “fear” is used as a weapon, the ones to fear are the ones putting this weapon to use.

History also demonstrates that in general individuals favour freedom over serfdom.  Independence can never lead to chaos unless you are impinging on another person’s sovereignty in the process. Whatever narrative the Media is pushing, it is usually the opposing narrative that is true.  According to the experts, the world should have ended several times over, and the Dow should have crashed and never risen years ago.

Lesson Number 3 in Investing For Dummies

Naysayers are always wrong in the long run:

One theme running through all those gloomy predictions of doom is that those making those dire predictions are doomed to be wrong.  Case and point, the dire predictions market experts have made since the market bottomed in 2009. Or the idiotic stance by politicians such AOC on Amazon opening a new Head Quarters in NYC.  This plan would have increased Tax revenues significantly and provided 25K plus jobs. Sam Zell, had some choice words on this topic, that pithily summarises the Amazon fiasco. Observe the video, and you will get a laugh from it as this is another one of those hot mike events

Whether Amazon is fair in the way it conducts its business operations is a separate story; in terms of trends, companies like Amazon need to stop some of their predatory practices or risk being suddenly upended. AI is gaining traction at a stunning rate, and it is going to help many small companies take on industry giants at a speed that will stun these dinosaurs. While experts state that it could AI years to compete with Humans; we feel a major announcement could be made within the next 18-39 months that will stun the world. If this announcement is made, then AI will be smarter than humans in less than 36 months from the date of that announcement.

Investing For Dummies: Lesson 4

When uncertainty is running high, the markets are likely to trend higher.

The masses are still uncertain, and we find uncertainty adorable; nothing is more bullish for the markets than an undecided crowd.

 The best time to buy is when the masses are in panic mode, and when one feels far from certain about the future of the markets; certainty is the secret word for failure when it comes to the stock markets. Market Update Feb 28, 2019

What is striking is that over the past several weeks the number of individuals in the Neutral camp has hardly budged and is gently trending upwards. Since the last update, we have two sets of new readings.   Last week the number of individuals in the neutral camp stood at 39, this week they increased to 41. So far in 2019, the number of individuals in the neutral camp has always surpassed those in the bullish or bearish camps, and this is very revealing. It clearly indicates that the masses are suffering from a long term bias and that the political landscape is messing with their ability to distinguish reality from fiction.

Until we have a feeding frenzy stage this bull market will not end

While you might feel sorry for them, just watch Pluto’s allegory of the cave to see how well the masses will reward you for trying to wake them up. In a nutshell, this development is a very bullish factor for it means that eventually, this market is going to experience what could turn out to be an extreme “feeding frenzy stage”. The crowd will ultimately be so mad they sat and did nothing for so long, that they will double up on this market and their sweet reward as always will be a very sharp guillotine.

Masses will eventually embrace this bull

However, contrarian players will mistake the initial surge in bullishness as a sign that the markets are ready to top out and will end up shedding a lot of tears in the process. At the Tactical Investor, our strategy is different; we will not adopt a position that opposes the masses until the crowd is in a state of ecstasy, in other words, the bandwagon of joy should be ready to collapse before we consider betting against the masses.

As the masses held off for so long, the buying climax could last for an extended period. Remember the equation must always balance. As we are quite far from the “feeding frenzy stage”, there is no point in wasting too much time on it. Suffice to say, this bull market is not ready to die.

This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion. Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one. Market Update Feb 28, 2019

Conclusion

One should remember the paragraph above every time the urge to panic starts to rise; no bull market has ever ended on a note of fear or anxiety. Despite the media trying to create a new narrative to prove otherwise for the past several years; they have failed miserably. And this illustrates that news, in general, should either be treated as rubbish or viewed through a humorous lens.

In terms of the stock market, until the Fed changes its mind, all sharp corrections have to be viewed as buying opportunities, and backbreaking corrections have to be placed in the category of “once in a lifetime events”, provided of course the trend is positive. That is what we are here for; to inform you if the trend is positive (Up) or negative (down).

The world is going to witness a Fed that has decided to make a cocktail of Coke, Heroin, Crack and Meth and take it all in one shot. Imagine what a junkie on this combination of potent drugs is capable of doing, and you will have an idea of where the Fed is heading in the years to come.  Market Update Feb 28, 2019

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

 

Random views on Stock investing for dummies

History has shown that investing in stocks is one of the easiest and most profitable ways to build wealth over the long-term. With a handful of notable exceptions, almost every member of the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest people got there because they own a large block of shares in a public or private corporation. Although your beginning may be humble, this guide to investing in stocks will explain what stocks are, how you can make money from them, and much more.
Have you ever asked yourself, “What is stock?” or wondered why shares of stock exist? This introduction to the world of investing in stocks will provide answers to those questions and show you just how simple Wall Street really is. It may turn out to be one of the most important articles you’ve ever read if you don’t understand what stocks represent. Find out the answer to “What is Stock?” and how it comes to exist …
You probably know that investing in stocks is a way to get rich but very few new investors actually realize how you make money from your shares of stock. Now, you don’t have to wonder any longer. Let’s show you the two ways you can profit from owning and investing in stocks, and some of the factors that determine how fast a company grows. Find out how to make money from owning stocks … Full Story

Investing in stocks is an excellent way to grow wealth. But how do you actually start? Follow the steps below to learn how to invest in the stock market.

1. Decide how you want to invest in stocks
There are several ways to approach stock investing. Choose the option below that best represents how you want to invest, and how hands-on you’d like to be in picking and choosing the stocks you invest in.

“I’m the DIY type and am interested in choosing stocks and stock funds for myself.” Keep reading; this article breaks down things hands-on investors need to know. Or, if you already know the stock-buying game and just need a brokerage, see our roundup of the best online stock brokers.
“I know stocks can be a great investment, but I’d like someone to manage the process for me.” You may be a good candidate for a robo-advisor, a service that offers low-cost investment management. Virtually all of the major brokerage firms offer these services, which invest your money for you based on your specific goals. See our top picks for robo-advisors.
Once you have a preference in mind, you’re ready to shop for an account.

2. Open an investing account
Generally speaking, to invest in stocks, you need an investment account. For the hands-on types, this usually means a brokerage account. For those who would like a little help, opening an account through a robo-advisor is a sensible option. We break down both processes below. Full Story

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