It is clear that the median price of existing homes has been increasing over the past few months, while the number of new existing home sales has been generally decreasing. This trend can be attributed to affordability issues facing potential homebuyers. With limited disposable income, many Americans are unable to allocate a significant portion of their budget towards monthly mortgage payments. As a result, the demand for existing homes has decreased, leading to a decline in sales. This trend may continue unless there is a significant increase in disposable income or a decrease in housing prices.
Recent trends in the housing market have shown that the median price of existing homes has increased significantly over the past few months, while the number of new existing home sales has decreased. This can be attributed to affordability issues faced by potential homebuyers. In some cases, monthly payments for a similar-priced home have increased by 50% compared to those purchased roughly 8 to 12 months ago.
Housing is a leading economic indicator and plays a significant role in the overall health of the economy. For most Americans, their home represents their largest investment, and housing wealth accounts for around half of their total household net worth. When housing prices decline, it can have a ripple effect on the economy. Consumers may spend less due to feeling poorer, tax revenues may decrease, homebuilders may scale back on building projects, construction workers may lose their jobs, and unemployment levels may rise.
A recent survey conducted by consultancy PwC showed that 50% of companies are planning to reduce their overall headcount, while 46% are dropping or reducing signing bonuses and 44% are rescinding job offers. These trends indicate that wage inflation, which was previously a concern, may now be shifting towards wage deflation. This could mean that Americans may need to continue working later in life rather than retiring at a certain age.
However, these trends also present opportunities for contrarian investors to look for deals in the housing market. When the market appears uncertain, it may be a good time to start looking for bargains. Experts often make the most noise at or near market bottoms, and it is likely that the market will bottom once the Federal Reserve takes action to support the economy and the stock market. Risk-takers can start looking for deals in what is now a buyers’ market, but it is important to take the time to find the best possible deal rather than rushing into a purchase.
Introduction Understanding the intricate relationship between crude oil price fluctuations and stock market trends is crucial for investors, economists, and ...
In some ways, today’s stock market data is like MUSK; the guy is erratic and TSLA’s erratic stock price action clearly validates this point. He was caught smoking weed on camera, and he called Vernon Unsworth a “pedo guy”; in 2018 he stated he wanted to take Tesla private and was sued by the SEC for securities fraud. Last but not least, Tesla is still losing money selling cars. Hence, the logical conclusion would be that one should short the stock, and if you did that, you would have lost your shirt, pants and your knickers.
In 2020, bears lost north of $8 billion as a result of their shorts. The recent parabolic spike in Tesla’s stocks price was due to a massive short squeeze. On the same token, this market should have crashed long ago, and those that bet against it have paid dearly. The moral of the story is simple; when it comes to the market, the focus should be on the psychological state of the masses and not on logic. In Tesla’s case, if one applied Mass Psychology, one would have noticed that the stock has a cult-like following and secondly, the bad news was not having a massive impact on the price of the stock. Sure the stock let out a large dose of steam, but that is natural for a stock that has been on a tear.
Investor sentiment and Market Cycles
This chart quite accurately captures the state of the mass mindset; however, the funny part is that very few put this information to use, including the individuals/organisations that create these lovely charts.
According to the Wall Street Journal, there is a record 3.4 trillion in cash sitting on the sidelines. This money will eventually find its way into the market and push markets higher, but the more important factor to pay attention to is that the crowd is still far from bullish. Looking at the sentiment below; the only consistency we can find is that there is no consistency. Bullish sentiment has not remained above 60% for 3 weeks in a row for years on end. In fact, we can’t recall seeing the sentiment above 60% for three weeks in a row since the inception of this bull market and that is a very telling development indeed.
This sentiment data was tabulated before Friday’s sell-off; therefore it appears that the crowd was already spooked before Friday’s sell-off further cementing the view that a sharp pullback has to be viewed as a blessing in disguise. Market Update Jan 31, 2020
If you compare the current sentiment data to that in the last update, bearish readings remain unchanged but bullish readings rose a bit. Now does that make any sense; the crowd panicked and then turned bullish and the markets surged to new highs and the bears still dominate. This type of action clearly pinpoints that the main dominant theme is that the masses are still uncertain.
Media Hysteria over the Coronavirus: what gives?
According to Worldometers
Quick facts:
Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses.
This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.
Sources and info:
Seasonal flu death estimate increases worldwide – CDC
Up to 650 000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year – World Health Organization (WHO) http://bit.ly/32wVaQA
Why the hysteria when so far roughly 3K individuals have succumbed to the coronavirus? What gives? Weaponised news, that’s what gives.
Conclusion
If you are an investor with a long term view then all sharp corrections should be viewed through a bullish lens as history indicates that markets revert to the mean. This massive sell-off is driven by fear and when the fear subsides the markets will resume their upward trend. The trend as per our Trend Indicator is still positive, so Tactical Investors should view all sharp pullbacks through a bullish lens.
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
Coronavirus: Fear returns to stock markets
Global stock markets have fallen sharply as investors continue to worry about the broader economic effects of the coronavirus.
London’s FTSE 100 share index fell more than 3% and there were similar declines in other European markets.
In the US, upbeat data on hiring and unemployment failed to buoy investors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed almost 1% lower, while the Nasdaq slumped 1.8% and S&P 500 ended down 1.7%.
The monthly report from the US Labor Department found US employers added 273,000 jobs in February – significantly beating expectations – while the jobless rate fell back to near a 50-year low of 3.5%.
The report also revised up estimates of job gains in January and December, finding 85,000 more than previously understood.
The surveys, however, reflect data collected before the outbreak intensified. In recent weeks, global travel has plunged, while work, school and shopping has been disrupted in many countries.
The economic strength signalled in the report is a “little like the saying, the car was in fine condition before being involved in a collision”, said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate.com.
Earlier on Friday, markets in Asia had seen big falls, with Japan’s Nikkei share index dropping by 2.7%.
The 3.6% drop in the FTSE 100 wiped out the gains seen earlier this week on the index. Full Story
US stocks halted after falling 7%. Global stocks plunge as oil crashes and coronavirus fear spreads
Hong Kong/New York/London (CNN Business)Global markets are plunging after the implosion of an alliance between OPEC and Russia caused the worst one-day crash in crude prices in nearly 30 years, fueling panic triggered by the escalation of the coronavirus epidemic.
The S&P 500 (SPX) fell about 6%. The Dow (INDU) fell as many as 2,046 points. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) was down 5.4%. The New York Stock Exchange halted trading for 15 minutes after stocks plunged more than 7%. They retraced some of their losses after the market reopened.
The sell-off carried over into Asia Pacific, where Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended 7.3% lower on Monday, the index’s biggest plunge since October 2008. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (N225) sank 5.1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) lost 4.2%, while China’s Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) shed 3%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, meanwhile, fell below 0.5%, hitting record lows. The panic began after Saudi Arabia shocked oil markets by launching a price war. The kingdom is trying to retake global market share after Russia refused Friday to go along with OPEC’s efforts to rescue the oil market from a plunge in demand caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
Making matters worse, the novel coronavirus continues to weigh heavily on investors as it deals an unexpected shock to the economy. The virus has infected more than 108,000 people and is throwing many countries into turmoil. Full Story
Who’s buying stocks? Executives at TripAdvisor, Newell Brands and other companies are buying at low prices
In his investing book “The Vital Few vs. the Trivial Many: Invest With the Insiders, Not the Masses,” George Muzea argues that the best time to purchase stocks is when “those in the know” are buying, and “those not in the know” are selling.
People in the know are corporate insiders like directors and top managers who get daily reports on sales trends and projections, and who can read the body language and other signals inside companies.
They’re buying like crazy in the coronavirus-led bear market, which has pushed down the S&P 500 Index by 12% Monday alone.
I’ve tracked insider buying on a daily basis for over 10 years, because it’s a big part of how I select names for my stock newsletter, “Brush Up on Stocks,” launched in 2010. The current wave of insider buying is as big as any I’ve seen during the great panics of the bull market — all of which were followed by rebounds.
Importantly, insiders are going straight to all the sectors that will supposedly get hit hardest by the virus: air travel, amusement parks, restaurants and economically sensitive areas like basic materials, energy and industrials. They are doing so with repeated, large purchases. There’s virtually no insider buying in classic defensive areas like consumer staples. Full Story
And that is how the Pension lie was conceived; continue reading to find out the details:
The world will end, the US dollar will crash, Gold will soar to the Moon, and Pigs will fly over it. Well, we added the last bit to throw in some humour. Are you not sick of the stories about how things are only set to worsen? If you add all the proclamations made by these so-called wise men for the past 100 years, the world as we know it should have ended several times over.
It has not pointed out that all those wise pundits were wise only when compared to the reliable donkey. Life is very short, and most people spend a vast amount of their time focussing on what was, what should be and what could be. How about trying a new approach? Enjoy the moment; that is all you have. If you have a decent roof over your head, money in the bank and food, you are infinitely better off than over 50% of the world. Let that sink in for a moment. Anything more than that pushes you even further up the rung of well-being.
Early Pension Pitfalls: Seeking Wealth Is Not Bad, But…..
At least seek it with a smile and not a frown. Enjoy the day as a child would. Have you seen how children can have so much fun with so little and how they can’t even have half the fun when they grow up despite having 10 times more? We seek things that we are not even sure we need; the seeds were incepted starting from your first trip to the brainwashing centre (otherwise known as school), and if allowed to grow, these fears turn into gigantic monsters.
For example, each year, experts state that people need more and more money to retire; here is the sad fact: By the time the average person retires, he/she will be a living zombie. Free thought will be a thing of the past. Worse yet, you work until you are 65, but the average life expectancy in the USA is 78.6 years.
So let’s get this straight, give up the best years of your life, worry throughout that time if you will have enough to retire, and you only have 13 years to enjoy it. Well, it sounds perfectly sane, doesn’t it? Waste the best years of your life, worrying about the worst years of your life. What could possibly go wrong with such a scenario? Remember that the average life expectancy has been dropping in the USA for the third year in a row.
Early retirement Lie; One needs significantly less than the experts claim
The sad fact is you don’t even need half of the ridiculous figures experts are pushing because even at ¼ of the stated figures which are surpassing one million, most of the world’s population stands no chance of achieving the stated goal. The stated goal, like everything mass media and the experts push, is to get the masses to buy into the lie they are selling and sow the seeds of doubt. Doubt then gives way to fear and paranoia and the rest, as they say, is history.
How do people get their info? Don’t they see the world through a prism? What is this prism for most individuals: TV and Mass Media? What if the intention were to provide the masses with the wrong image or ideas, therefore no matter how hard they tried to solve the problem, they would fail, as they would be analysing the wrong data. Think of Pluto’s allegory of the caves.
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
Random views on Withdraw pension early
Early pension release, or unlocking, means withdrawing money from your pension before the age of 55. Unless you meet specific conditions, you’ll be charged a substantial amount of tax and could risk losing all of your savings to scammers.
Can I release money from my pension?
Following pension reforms in 2015, you can now withdraw as much of your pension as you want from the age of 55. There are some exceptions that entitle you to access your pension earlier, but you may have to pay high fees. Whatever age you decide to withdraw your pension, there are a few things you’ll need to consider.
Once you’ve had your 55th birthday, you can release money from your personal or workplace pension. You can withdraw up to 25% of your pot tax-free, either as a lump sum or in smaller instalments adding up to 25%. It doesn’t matter how big or small your pension pot is, everyone is entitled to take a quarter of their savings without paying income tax.
There are four main options when deciding what to do with the remainder of your pension. You can cash out your pension and withdraw your entire pot in one go or in a series of lump sums. If you choose this method, it’s important to consider the tax implications, as large withdrawals can push you into a higher tax band, especially if you’re still employed and earning a salary. Full Story
Changes to pension rules introduced in 2015 mean you’ve greater access to your pension. But you still need to be wary of pension liberation scams, claiming you can access your pension early.
Pension liberation scammers claim they can get your money from pensions before you’re 55, but the vast fees and taxes you’ll pay can leave you with little for retirement, and now scammers are targeting the over-55s as well.
Changes to pensions that came into effect in April 2015 mean that from age 55 onwards, you can access as much of your pension money as you like, when you want it.
Despite these changes, the crucial fact remains that you can only access your pension pot when you turn 55. This means that ‘pension liberators’, who claim you can access your pension money sooner, are trying to get you to break the law.
Pension liberation
Pension liberation is a scam that claims to release cash from people’s pension pots before they reach age 55. Promises of early cash are false and are likely to result in you paying big bills, sometimes leaving people with no savings for retirement. Do NOT confuse this with Pensions Liberation Day, which some people call the day (6 April) when pension freedom came into effect.
Victims are usually contacted by email, phone, or text by fraudsters trying to trick them into transferring their pension funds to bogus arrangements for a commission fee. Full Story
Use this guide to determine if you can take money out of your pension at age 55. It contains some of the key facts and information you need to consider and ends with answers to some of the most common questions we are asked.
The headline facts at a glance
As long as you are 55 or over and have the right kind of pension, you can withdraw money from it. The amount you withdraw is completely up to you, and the first 25% is tax-free. As you might have guessed, the rest is taxed as income. It is worth mentioning that taking money from your pension in this way is often referred to as pension access or pension release.
Are you eligible for pension release?
Why are so many people taking money from their pension early?
Thousands of people across the UK are taking money from their pension pot early to tackle a pressing need or opportunity. In our experience, some of the most common reasons include:
I am tackling a long-standing financial commitment such as a mortgage, loan or credit card.
We support a family member with a big life event such as a wedding or deposit.
Making essential upgrades to the house.
These are just a few examples, and you might have a completely different reason for wanting to take money early from your pension.
Forever Quantitative Easing is here to stay and this means until it ends, every backbreaking correction has to be treated as a mouth-watering opportunity.
The term forever QE has just started to come into play recently, and mainstream media is most likely going to embrace this term and weaponise it in not so distant future. However, we first addressed this phenomenon back in in 2015 and here is the link that details what was said at that time https://bit.ly/2CILKGi
The outlook has only worsened since then; the new tax breaks corporations got will be used to purchase more shares, and the reason is simple, it pays more in the short term to boost profits by reducing share count than in investing in the company. Corporations will continue down this path until new laws are enacted and they will become more emboldened with time. Gone are the days where there was a semblance of caring for the investor; insiders are only concerned with how much they can make and they don’t care if they destroy the company in the process. Share buybacks are rising and have continued to grow since we first posted that article.
Buybacks appear to be nearing a crescendo, with total U.S. stock repurchase announcements crossing the $1 trillion mark in mid-December for the first time, according to Michael Schoonover, the portfolio manager of the Catalyst Buyback Strategy fund (ticker: BUYIX). “There’s been a significant pickup in recent weeks,” with markets in a downdraft, he adds. Announcements reached $1.08 trillion, with nearly half concentrated in 19 companies, which account for $460 billion of the total. Some of those are listed in the nearby table. Despite the record-setting buyback authorization levels, 2018 has been an unusual year in that fewer companies are accounting for the total buybacks, he says. Full Story
Take this as an early warning that should the media jackasses start pushing another B.S story, instead of panicking, one should break out of a bottle of champagne, and as the masses panic calmly sip on that champagne and build a list of strong stocks one always wanted to purchase. For those allergic to work, the option is simple; sit back and relax, for we always view crash type events as opportune moments when the trend is positive. Market update Feb 28, 2019
Mass Media Fails To Account For Forever Quantitative Easing
The wise guys at the Mass Media outlets are already pushing a new narrative. This is how they incept new ideas into the masses; you create doubt and then let that doubt grow. For example, they are making all sorts of dire predictions about Brexit (some of which border on the preposterous), they keep focussing on the calamitous consequences the US will face if there is no trade deal with China, experts are emerging about the dangers of lower rates and an inverted yield curve, etc. Well, think of any garbage and add it to this list. For that is what these garbage collectors do, they collect waste and try to spin it off as something valuable.
Before the Brexit vote, the naysayers made a great deal of noise of how a “yes” vote would lead to total chaos. So, what happened to that chaotic scene they predicted? We are not taking sides but looking at trends and history, and history is replete with examples illustrating that when “fear” is used as a weapon, the ones to fear are the ones putting this weapon to use.
History also demonstrates that in general individuals favour freedom over serfdom. Independence can never lead to chaos unless you are impinging on another person’s sovereignty in the process. Whatever narrative the Media is pushing, it is usually the opposing narrative that is true. According to the experts, the world should have ended several times over, and the Dow should have crashed and never risen years ago.
Lesson Number 3 in Investing For Dummies
Naysayers are always wrong in the long run:
One theme running through all those gloomy predictions of doom is that those making those dire predictions are doomed to be wrong. Case and point, the dire predictions market experts have made since the market bottomed in 2009. Or the idiotic stance by politicians such AOC on Amazon opening a new Head Quarters in NYC. This plan would have increased Tax revenues significantly and provided 25K plus jobs. Sam Zell, had some choice words on this topic, that pithily summarises the Amazon fiasco. Observe the video, and you will get a laugh from it as this is another one of those hot mike events
Whether Amazon is fair in the way it conducts its business operations is a separate story; in terms of trends, companies like Amazon need to stop some of their predatory practices or risk being suddenly upended. AI is gaining traction at a stunning rate, and it is going to help many small companies take on industry giants at a speed that will stun these dinosaurs. While experts state that it could AI years to compete with Humans; we feel a major announcement could be made within the next 18-39 months that will stun the world. If this announcement is made, then AI will be smarter than humans in less than 36 months from the date of that announcement.
Investing For Dummies: Lesson 4
When uncertainty is running high, the markets are likely to trend higher.
The masses are still uncertain, and we find uncertainty adorable; nothing is more bullish for the markets than an undecided crowd.
The best time to buy is when the masses are in panic mode, and when one feels far from certain about the future of the markets; certainty is the secret word for failure when it comes to the stock markets. Market Update Feb 28, 2019
What is striking is that over the past several weeks the number of individuals in the Neutral camp has hardly budged and is gently trending upwards. Since the last update, we have two sets of new readings. Last week the number of individuals in the neutral camp stood at 39, this week they increased to 41. So far in 2019, the number of individuals in the neutral camp has always surpassed those in the bullish or bearish camps, and this is very revealing. It clearly indicates that the masses are suffering from a long term bias and that the political landscape is messing with their ability to distinguish reality from fiction.
Until we have a feeding frenzy stage this bull market will not end
While you might feel sorry for them, just watch Pluto’s allegory of the cave to see how well the masses will reward you for trying to wake them up. In a nutshell, this development is a very bullish factor for it means that eventually, this market is going to experience what could turn out to be an extreme “feeding frenzy stage”. The crowd will ultimately be so mad they sat and did nothing for so long, that they will double up on this market and their sweet reward as always will be a very sharp guillotine.
Masses will eventually embrace this bull
However, contrarian players will mistake the initial surge in bullishness as a sign that the markets are ready to top out and will end up shedding a lot of tears in the process. At the Tactical Investor, our strategy is different; we will not adopt a position that opposes the masses until the crowd is in a state of ecstasy, in other words, the bandwagon of joy should be ready to collapse before we consider betting against the masses.
As the masses held off for so long, the buying climax could last for an extended period. Remember the equation must always balance. As we are quite far from the “feeding frenzy stage”, there is no point in wasting too much time on it. Suffice to say, this bull market is not ready to die.
This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion. Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one. Market Update Feb 28, 2019
Conclusion
One should remember the paragraph above every time the urge to panic starts to rise; no bull market has ever ended on a note of fear or anxiety. Despite the media trying to create a new narrative to prove otherwise for the past several years; they have failed miserably. And this illustrates that news, in general, should either be treated as rubbish or viewed through a humorous lens.
In terms of the stock market, until the Fed changes its mind, all sharp corrections have to be viewed as buying opportunities, and backbreaking corrections have to be placed in the category of “once in a lifetime events”, provided of course the trend is positive. That is what we are here for; to inform you if the trend is positive (Up) or negative (down).
The world is going to witness a Fed that has decided to make a cocktail of Coke, Heroin, Crack and Meth and take it all in one shot. Imagine what a junkie on this combination of potent drugs is capable of doing, and you will have an idea of where the Fed is heading in the years to come. Market Update Feb 28, 2019
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
Random views on Stock investing for dummies
History has shown that investing in stocks is one of the easiest and most profitable ways to build wealth over the long-term. With a handful of notable exceptions, almost every member of the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest people got there because they own a large block of shares in a public or private corporation. Although your beginning may be humble, this guide to investing in stocks will explain what stocks are, how you can make money from them, and much more.
Have you ever asked yourself, “What is stock?” or wondered why shares of stock exist? This introduction to the world of investing in stocks will provide answers to those questions and show you just how simple Wall Street really is. It may turn out to be one of the most important articles you’ve ever read if you don’t understand what stocks represent. Find out the answer to “What is Stock?” and how it comes to exist …
You probably know that investing in stocks is a way to get rich but very few new investors actually realize how you make money from your shares of stock. Now, you don’t have to wonder any longer. Let’s show you the two ways you can profit from owning and investing in stocks, and some of the factors that determine how fast a company grows. Find out how to make money from owning stocks … Full Story
Investing in stocks is an excellent way to grow wealth. But how do you actually start? Follow the steps below to learn how to invest in the stock market.
1. Decide how you want to invest in stocks
There are several ways to approach stock investing. Choose the option below that best represents how you want to invest, and how hands-on you’d like to be in picking and choosing the stocks you invest in.
“I’m the DIY type and am interested in choosing stocks and stock funds for myself.” Keep reading; this article breaks down things hands-on investors need to know. Or, if you already know the stock-buying game and just need a brokerage, see our roundup of the best online stock brokers.
“I know stocks can be a great investment, but I’d like someone to manage the process for me.” You may be a good candidate for a robo-advisor, a service that offers low-cost investment management. Virtually all of the major brokerage firms offer these services, which invest your money for you based on your specific goals. See our top picks for robo-advisors.
Once you have a preference in mind, you’re ready to shop for an account.
2. Open an investing account
Generally speaking, to invest in stocks, you need an investment account. For the hands-on types, this usually means a brokerage account. For those who would like a little help, opening an account through a robo-advisor is a sensible option. We break down both processes below. Full Story
