The Permabear Predicament: A Ballet of Bearish Beliefs

Posted on 12/29/2023 by Alan Solomon

Being a permabear is akin to a unique form of folly that even countless harsh lessons fail to rectify. It seems permabears harbour a desire for financial ruin, as this is the only plausible explanation for such myopic thinking. A glance at any long-term financial chart will conclusively demonstrate that maintaining a permabear outlook is a losing strategy. No historical chart can validate the notion that a consistently bearish stance yields long-term profits.

Regardless of the trend line you choose, the above 100-year chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average unequivocally shows that permabears are misguided in their investment approach.

The remedy is straightforward.

Concentrate on the basic elements that help identify the trend—elements like mass sentiment and extreme patterns (technical analysis) visible on the charts. News is not a critical factor; in fact, it holds less significance than toilet paper; at least the latter serves a practical purpose, which cannot be said about the news.

Anyone who promotes succumbing to fear should be metaphorically expelled from your life and mind; fear never yields profits; only those who peddle fear profit, while the purchasers lose everything.

Marc Faber: The Hazard of Being A Permabear

This individual has been forecasting the most significant market crash since the beginning of this bull market (2009), but the only thing that has crashed so far is his crash predictions. He might have a promising career as a science fiction author, given his penchant for devising scenarios with a minuscule chance of actualization.

During a heated debate, a frustrated nation challenged Faber’s consistent bearish forecasts since 2012. Nations pointed out that those who invested in stocks during that period realised substantial gains, casting doubt on Faber’s precision. Faber defended his predictions, citing a 2012 correction as proof. He remained steadfast, believing that his warnings would eventually be vindicated. Faber shrugged off the criticism, stating he is no stranger to detractors. The confrontation underscored the divergent views on market trends, leaving the question of who will be proven correct.

“I assure you that when all is said and done, people will appreciate me warning them not to invest all their money in stocks,” Faber added. “I’m accustomed to people like you who constantly criticise me.”

“You’re accusing me of being incorrect? I find it amusing,” Faber concluded. –CNBC

Here, he predicted a significant recession in 2018

As it turns out, the only recession was in his predictions—the only thing that has been in a bear market for now. Therefore, it could be profitable if you are a permabear in his ability to predict market direction.

Then, he goes on to state the party will end in 2018. Random Thoughts on Being a Permabear.

Firstly, we hope most of our subscribers begin to understand that giving in to fear is perilous. Life and investing should not be stressful; stress is something that every tactical investor should avoid. Moreover, remember, stress is a matter of perception; change the perception, and one can transition from being stressed to being calm.

Experts often argue that investing is difficult and that mastering this art takes a lifetime. Remember that investing is an art, not a science, and art is meant to be enjoyed. So are the masses starting to jump on the bandwagon after this strong turnaround? The obvious answer would be yes. The not-so-obvious answer would be no. Continue reading. At least in the first half of 2019, the not-so-obvious answer would be the correct choice. The masses are still anxious, and until they start to celebrate in the streets, every strong correction should be viewed from a bullish perspective.

The Current Bull: Unlike Any Other Bull Market

This bull market is unique; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less predict the top of a market with a margin of error of a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed, and 99% of these traders and experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as before 2009 and, in many cases, would lead to an incorrect conclusion.

In short, there are still too many pessimists (experts, average Joes, and everyone in between), and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks, mild to wild, will be mistakenly identified as the big ones.

The results are self-evident; most of our holdings were in the red during the pullback, but now they are in the black, proving that one should buy when there’s panic in the streets. It’s a catchy and easy phrase to utter but very challenging to implement because the masses will choose to be pushed when faced with a push or shove situation.

Stock Market Update March 2023

In times of crisis, such as the current coronavirus pandemic, it can be prudent to nibble at stocks with a long-term perspective. Instead of investing all your funds at once, consider investing in smaller increments to average your entry price and protect against stock market dips.

At the Tactical Investor, we focus on longer-term plays that typically span several months. However, in times of crisis like these, we’re seeing a surge in the potential for huge profits, so our time frames have lengthened accordingly. While the short-term market may seem like a massacre, it’s also a hotbed for exceptional opportunities that can herald the next bull market.

Investing is easy when everything appears to be going well, but unfortunately, that’s when most assets are already overpriced. When times seem grim, that’s precisely when the best bargains can be found. So, consider examining the market more closely during these volatile times, and you may uncover some hidden treasures.

FAQ

Q: What is a permabear? A: A permabear refers to an investor who consistently maintains a bearish outlook on the market, predicting downturns and advocating for a defensive or negative investment strategy.

Q: Why is being a permabear criticised? A: Being a permabear is often criticised because historical data shows that the stock market tends to rise over the long term. Critics argue that Permabears misses out on potential gains by constantly expecting market declines and failing to take advantage of positive trends.

Q: What evidence is provided against being a permabear? The text suggests that examining long-term charts and trends reveals that being a permabear does not pay off. It emphasises that stock market charts demonstrate consistent upward movement, and taking a bearish stance is unlikely to yield positive results over time.

Q: What factors should be considered in determining investment trends? A: The text suggests focusing on mass sentiment, extreme patterns (through technical analysis), and long-term chart trends. It argues that news is less relevant and that fear-based decision-making is discouraged, as fear rarely leads to favourable outcomes.

Q: Who is Marc Faber, and what are his views on market predictions? Marc Faber is mentioned as someone who has consistently predicted significant market crashes, but these predictions have not materialised. The text implies that Faber’s accuracy has been questioned, with critics suggesting his scenarios have a low probability of occurring.

Q: How did Marc Faber defend his bearish predictions? In response to criticism, Faber defended his predictions by citing a 2012 correction as evidence of his accuracy. He expressed confidence that his warnings would eventually be appreciated and dismissed the criticism, stating that he is accustomed to facing detractors.

Q: What is the perspective on investing during times of crisis? A: During times of crisis, the text suggests that it can be wise to take a long-term perspective and consider investing in smaller increments to average the entry price. It highlights that volatile times often present exceptional profit opportunities and recommends exploring the market during such periods.

Q: What is the suggested approach to investing during market downturns? A: The text advises considering investments when the market appears bleak, as it is often when the best deals can be found. It encourages investors to look for hidden gems and emphasises that the short-term market turmoil may present opportunities for substantial gains in the long run.

Harnessing Power: The Dynamic Approach of Small Dogs Of the Dow

Posted on 12/28/2023 by Alan Solomon

For those new to the world of investing, the stock market can appear as a daunting labyrinth of stocks and complex investment strategies. The overwhelming volume of information and choices can easily lead to a sense of bewilderment and apprehension. Amidst this intricate landscape, it becomes crucial for beginner investors to identify a simple yet effective investment strategy that can help them gain confidence and work towards their financial objectives. One such strategy that has found favour among novice investors is the Small Dogs of the Dow strategy.

The Small Dogs of the Dow strategy streamlines the investment process by zeroing in on a select group of high dividend-yielding stocks within the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). This approach enables investors to make informed decisions without getting swamped by the multitude of options in the stock market. By adopting the Small Dogs of the Dow strategy, beginner investors can leverage a tried-and-tested method that has historically shown robust performance while also enjoying a consistent income through dividends.

So, what exactly is this strategy? The Small Dogs of the Dow strategy is a well-liked investment approach that zeroes in on the ten highest dividend-yielding firms within the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The strategy operates on the assumption that high dividend yields indicate undervalued stocks with the potential to outshine the market. Concentrating on these high-yield stocks, the strategy seeks to pinpoint companies that are currently undervalued by the market but possess strong fundamentals and the potential for future growth. Moreover, the strategy is designed to provide investors with a steady income stream through the dividends paid by these high-yield stocks.

The Small Dogs of the Dow approach is relatively straightforward and easy to comprehend, making it an appealing choice for novice investors with limited experience in the stock market. It is also a cost-effective strategy, as it does not necessitate frequent trading or the use of intricate investment vehicles. Instead, investors can invest equal amounts of money into each of the 10 Small Dogs of the Dow stocks or utilize an ETF or mutual fund that tracks the Small Dogs of the Dow index.

Despite the risks, the strategy has historically outperformed the broader market. It can be a valuable investment approach for investors seeking a simple, income-generating approach to stock market investing. However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with this approach and should always seek advice from a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The Small Dogs of the Dow strategy involves investing in the highest-yielding stocks within the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A variation of this strategy, known as Small Dogs of the Dow, involves investing in the highest-yielding stocks within the Dow Jones Industrial Average that have a lower market capitalization, typically under $10 billion.

To select Small Dogs of the Dow stocks, you can follow these steps: • Identify the current Small Dogs of the Dow: You can locate the current Small Dogs of the Dow list online or by using a stock screener that allows you to sort by dividend yield and market capitalization. • Investigate each company: Once you have the list of Small Dogs of the Dow, delve into each company to understand their business, financials, competitive advantages, and growth prospects. Look for companies with a history of paying dividends and a sustainable dividend payout ratio. • Assess the risks: Consider the risks associated with each company, such as industry trends, competition, regulatory environment, and financial risks. Evaluate the potential impact of these risks on the company’s financials and dividend payouts. • Diversify your portfolio: As with any investment strategy, it is crucial to diversify your portfolio to spread out your risk. Invest in a mix of Small Dogs of the Dow stocks and other types of investments to achieve a balanced portfolio. • Monitor your investments: Regularly monitor your Small Dogs of the Dow investments to ensure they meet your investment goals and risk tolerance. Reevaluate your investments periodically and make adjustments as necessary.

One of the primary advantages of this strategy is its simplicity. It is an easy-to-understand investment strategy that does not require much time or expertise. Additionally, since the strategy focuses on high-yield dividend stocks, it can provide investors with a steady income stream.

Another advantage of this strategy is its historical performance. According to some studies, the Small Dogs of the Dow have outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average by an average of 2% per year over the past two decades. Investors should be aware of the risks associated with this approach, such as changes in interest rates and the financial condition of the selected equities.

This strategy is also a low-cost investment approach, as it does not require frequent trading or the use of complex investment vehicles. Instead, investors can invest equal amounts of money into each of the 10 Small Dogs of the Dow stocks or use an ETF or mutual fund that tracks the Dow index.

Potential investors have expressed interest in the “small dogs of the Dow” strategy. While this approach offers advantages in simplicity and historical returns, it is important for individuals to understand both perspectives on this and alternative options. Here are a few key points regarding risks, performance, implementation and other considerations:

Like all stock market investing, there are inherent risks to consider such as general market fluctuations, concentration in a small number of securities, reliance on dividend yields alone without regard for other factors, and changes in sector/industry returns that could impact portfolio results.
Although backtested performance has outpaced the broader Dow Jones average, past returns do not guarantee comparable future outcomes. Markets and company fundamentals shift over time. For long-term goals, flexibility and diversification are prudent.
Low-cost ETFs provide solid options for accessing the “small dogs” index without significant trading costs. However, individuals should understand underlying holdings, charges and fit within their preferred investment style/objectives.
While the premise of focusing on higher-yielding, “undervalued” Dow stocks has validity, exclusivity to any single approach fails acknowledging diversity of views. Complementary allocations afford protection against unpredictable changes.
Professional guidance enhances implementation, ongoing oversight and adaptation to evolving needs, market climates or preference changes over years/decades. Strict “set it and forget it” routines risk deviations.

Overall, the “small dogs” methodology carries value as one piece within a broader, comprehensively developed portfolio. But regular review of performance against alternatives, consideration of non-statistical priorities and openness to adjustments optimize prospects for each person according to their distinct outlooks and convictions. Does this help provide a balanced perspective on both risks and opportunities with this strategy? I’m happy to discuss any part of the overview further.

MU Table pdf preview

Posted on 10/13/2023 by Alan Solomon

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Psychology Unveiled: Exploring the Depths of the Human Mind

Posted on 07/07/2023 by Alan Solomon

Ahoy there, fellow explorer! It is an undeniable truth that the emotions within us drive the ebb and flow of the vast marketplace. This is precisely why the study of psychology holds such paramount importance. Join us on a journey into the realm of mass psychology, where we seek to enlighten and educate you on the intricate dynamics of the collective consciousness. Our focus on demystifying the stock market for beginners revolves around a simple yet timeless principle: Keep It Simple, Smart (KISS). Embracing simplicity often paves the way to triumph.

At the Tactical Investor, our mission is to be your guide, providing you with the knowledge and tools to harness the power of mass psychology for your own gain. By comprehending the emotions that steer the masses, you will have the upper hand in making well-informed investment choices. Waste no time in hesitation; embark with us on this voyage towards financial prosperity!

Psychology Unveiled: Emotions as the Driving Force in Markets

The underlying truth is that the stock markets are swayed by the whims of emotional crowds. To gain an advantage, one must fully grasp the intricacies of crowd psychology and the emotions that govern them. By doing so, you can position yourself against the prevailing sentiment and make wise investments.

However, be cautious, for as the masses become more irrational, knowing when to cut your losses and exit becomes paramount. This is where the principles of contrarian investing and the laws of mass psychology come into play, serving as essential tools in the arsenal of any successful investor.

Psychology Unveiled – Technical Analysis & the Unveiling of Mass Psychology

In the realm of stock market investing, the often-overlooked art of mass psychology holds the key to unravelling market trends and uncovering profitable opportunities. The masses are driven by their emotions, and by understanding these emotions, savvy investors can stay ahead of the game and exploit the tendencies of herd mentality for their benefit.

Furthermore, when combined with the study of mass psychology, technical analysis provides a comprehensive approach to investing. Equipped with precise tools and methodologies, technical analysis aids in determining overbought and oversold conditions in the markets, enabling investors to make well-informed decisions. Nevertheless, it is crucial to remember that attempting to predict market tops and bottoms is a futile endeavour that only leads to disappointment and pain. The real key lies in identifying the trend; with that knowledge, the path to investment success becomes clear.

At the Tactical Investor, we recognize the significance of mob psychology and technical analysis, which is why we have curated this section specifically for those seeking to expand their understanding of the stock market and make astute investments. Whether you are a novice or a seasoned investor, our focus is to assist you in mastering the art of contrarian investing and tilting the markets in your favour.

The Path to Stock Market Success: Embracing a Steady and Certain Approach

Heed the timeless advice: “If you delay, you lose.” In the realm of stock market investing, indecision and inaction can prove costly. Those who hesitate, waiting for the perfect moment, often miss out on opportunities altogether. The key to successful investing lies in understanding the power of emotions and the behavior of the masses.

This is why familiarizing yourself with mass psychology and technical analysis principles is crucial. Just as the fable of the tortoise and the hare teaches us, slow and steady wins the race. Begin with a solid foundation by investing in strong, financially stable companies before venturing into riskier options or penny stocks. And always remember, the optimal time to invest is when the masses are gripped by fear and uncertainty.

Psychology Unveiled: Mastering the Art of Timing and Emotional Awareness

In the realm of stock market success, a combination of sound decision-making, patience, and precise timing is essential. While rushing into options or penny stocks may seem tempting for quick riches, the reality is that only a small fraction of those who take that path achieve success. Instead, focus on reputable companies with steady earnings growth and gradually build your portfolio.

Avoid waiting too long to seize opportunities, as fear and hesitation often lead to missed chances. However, blindly following the crowd and investing when everyone else does is equally unwise. Utilize the principles of mass psychology and technical analysis to identify the optimal entry and exit points for your investments.

Consider it a race between the tortoise and the hare, where the patient and consistent approach prevails. Timing is crucial in the stock market, and delaying too much can mean missing out on the entire journey. However, by entering early, even if it involves some initial challenges, the rewards will be worth it.

Remember, the prime time to purchase stocks is when the masses are in a state of panic, while the ideal time to sell is when they are swept up in euphoria.

Avoid Confusing Market Timing with Crowd Sentiment Monitoring. It is vital to remember that the most opportune moments for stock investment arise when the masses are in a state of panic, and the best time to sell is during euphoric periods. However, it’s important not to mistake this concept for precisely timing the market bottom. Instead, focus on detecting shifts in crowd sentiment by utilizing the principles of mass psychology and technical analysis to guide your investment decisions.

Investing Wisdom for the Aspiring Stock Market Enthusiast: A Beginner’s Guide

“An investment in knowledge pays the highest dividends.” – Benjamin Franklin “Market bottoms are not reached after four-year lows but after ten- or fifteen-year lows.” – Jim Rogers “I will share the secret to becoming wealthy: close the doors, be cautious when others are overly optimistic, and be optimistic when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett “The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything but the value of nothing.” – Phillip Fisher “Investing, comfort rarely leads to profitability.” – Robert Arnott “Can you name any millionaires who became wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.” – Robert G. Allen “Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.” – Paul Clitheroe “The individual investor should consistently act as an investor and not a speculator.” – Ben Graham “It’s not about how much money you make, but about how much money you retain, how effectively it works for you, and how many generations it benefits.” – Robert Kiyosaki “Know what you own and understand why you own it.” – Peter Lynch

Psychology Unveiled: The Vitality of Paper Trading

While fully comprehending the inner workings of the market may take time, it is certainly an achievable task. The key lies in being patient and persistent in your learning process.

Before venturing into real-money investments, engaging in paper trading is crucial. This practice allows you to experience the market and learn from your mistakes without risking your capital. Once you have a solid understanding, you can gradually transition to investing small amounts of real money, increasing your investments as your confidence grows.

Investor’s Respite: Let Us Lighten Your Load

The Tactical Investor goes beyond being a mere stock-picking service. In fact, more than half of those who have discovered us have become subscribers, drawn to our unique blend of information and education. By joining us, you not only gain access to stock recommendations but also learn how to trade like a seasoned professional. Follow the provided link to take advantage.

Stock Portfolio Tracker

Posted on 07/05/2023 by Alan Solomon

Live Stock Portfolio Tracker with Analytics

Please scroll down and register for an account. If you use the incognito mode, your portfolios will not be saved.

[stock_portfolio_tracker]

What happens if the stock market crashes?

Posted on 03/07/2023 by Alan Solomon

The stock market has been a popular investment avenue for individuals and organizations for many years. Despite its popularity, many experts continue to make predictions about when the stock market is going to crash, and these predictions have often proven to be wrong. In fact, going back to the Tulip bubble in the 1600s, the history of the stock market is filled with examples of experts who claimed to know when the market would crash, yet they were consistently incorrect.

One of the reasons why experts continue to make these incorrect predictions is because the stock market is inherently unpredictable. Market crashes are usually caused by a combination of factors, such as changes in government policies, geopolitical events, economic downturns, and unexpected developments in technology. It is difficult, if not impossible, for anyone to predict when and how these factors will come into play. As a result, predictions about the stock market’s future are often based on speculation and intuition, rather than sound analysis.

Another reason why experts get it wrong is that they often overlook the market’s underlying strength. Despite its volatility, the stock market has proven to be resilient over the long term, and has consistently delivered returns to investors who are willing to hold onto their investments for the long haul. This resilience is due in part to the market’s ability to absorb shocks, recover from downturns, and continue to grow, even during times of economic turbulence.

From a bullish perspective, a stock market crash can be seen as a buying opportunity. During a market crash, prices of stocks often fall dramatically, and investors who are willing to take advantage of the dip can buy high-quality stocks at a lower price. Over time, as the market recovers, these stocks are likely to appreciate in value, delivering substantial returns to the investor.

On the other hand, a contrarian perspective would argue that a stock market crash is a sign of systemic problems in the economy. During a market crash, investors are usually panicked, and they tend to sell their stocks, causing prices to fall even further. This creates a vicious cycle, as investors become increasingly pessimistic and sell even more of their stocks, causing prices to fall even more. A contrarian would argue that a market crash is not a buying opportunity, but rather a sign that it’s time to get out of the market and wait for better times.

In conclusion, while experts continue to make predictions about when the stock market will crash, their track record has been consistently poor. The stock market is inherently unpredictable, and its resilience over the long term suggests that it’s often wise to ignore the noise and focus on building a diversified portfolio that is well-positioned to withstand short-term turbulence. Whether a market crash is seen as a buying opportunity or a warning sign will depend on the perspective of the investor, but it is important to understand that, over the long term, the stock market has proven to be a reliable investment vehicle for those who are willing to be patient and stick to their investment plan.

Pray tell, in these times of economic turmoil and financial insecurity, it seems as though the masses are quick to bemoan the stock market and its tumultuous ways. Yet, it is often the case that such bearishness proves to be unwarranted, for as the great sage Warren Buffett has oft stated, the markets are a veritable guarantee to rise in the long term.

And so, even as the spectre of market crashes looms large, the astute investor must not be swayed by the rabble’s fearmongering. Nay, rather one should view these tempests as opportunities to buy quality stocks at a discounted price. For, when the masses are in a state of panic and selling off, the wise investor takes advantage, backed by the knowledge that the central bankers of the world shall not let the markets falter for long.

Indeed, look around and observe the various stimulus programs being announced. Money shall continue to flood the markets, and the fear of the masses shall be assuaged. So, embrace the corrections, good sir or madam, for they shall bring bountiful opportunities for those who have the foresight to see it.

Conclusion

Ah, but let us not forget, amidst all the uncertainty and turmoil, that a market crash can be a rare and wondrous opportunity for those with the mettle to seize it! For when the masses panic and sell off their stock in a frenzied haste, the astute investor sees not Chaos and despair, but a veritable feast of bargains and opportunities waiting to be claimed!

Indeed, as the smoke clears and the dust settles, the shrewd investor calmly approaches the market, seeking out the gems that have been cast aside by the masses in their blind panic. And as they fill their portfolios with these undervalued treasures, they bask in the knowledge that they have outmanoeuvred their less insightful counterparts and emerged from the crash not merely unscathed, but richer for the experience.

So, let the market crash if it must! For those with a contrarian spirit and an unwavering faith in their own instincts, it is but a minor bump in the road, an obstacle to be overcome on the path to riches and success!

Achieving Financial Goals with Intelligent Investing Strategies

Posted on 03/07/2023 by Alan Solomon

Intelligent investing strategies seek to minimize risk and maximize returns through the use of thoughtful, data-driven approaches. These strategies aim to make informed decisions based on a deep understanding of market trends, economic indicators, and other relevant factors rather than relying on gut feelings or emotional reactions.

One popular approach to intelligent investing is value investing, which seeks to identify undervalued stocks that have the potential to grow in the future. This approach is based on the idea that stocks are priced based on their earnings potential and that by identifying stocks that are trading at a lower price relative to their earnings, investors can achieve higher returns over the long-term.

Another intelligent investing strategy is factor investing, which seeks to identify and invest in stocks that have certain characteristics, such as high dividend yields or strong momentum. This approach is based on the idea that these characteristics are indicative of future stock performance and can be used to generate higher returns.

Additionally, intelligent investing strategies often involve the use of modern technology and data analysis, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, to identify market trends and make informed investment decisions. By utilizing these cutting-edge tools, investors can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the market and make better-informed decisions.

Intelligent investing strategies aim to provide investors with a disciplined, data-driven approach to the stock market, helping them to minimize risk and maximize returns over the long-term. By utilizing a combination of value investing, factor investing, and modern technology, investors can achieve success and achieve their financial goals.

Covid 19 deaths in US: Is The Media telling the Truth

Posted on 02/28/2023 by Alan Solomon

Consider the following data and decide for yourself

Over 22K people will die today from hunger; this is probably one of the most horrible of ways to die
110K have died so far from this year’s flu, and roughly 650K die a year from respiratory-related diseases
70K mothers have already died this year giving birth
They have been over 242K suicides this year
1.7 million children under the age of five have died this year http://bit.ly/32wVaQA
1.25 million people die every year in road crashes https://bit.ly/2vId4UJ
more than 270K pedestrians die each year https://bit.ly/2QEW7BN
88K will die from alcohol-related causes only in the USA https://bit.ly/2QEW7BN
22K Brits will die because of prescriptions mix-ups https://bit.ly/2QDMm6U
Between 250K to 440K will die as a result of medical errors in America https://cnb.cx/33DF9cg
two decades worth of analysis reveals that over 100K Americans will die because of taking prescription drugs. A recent study states that the figure is close to 128K. https://bit.ly/39cYtOw
This article from the NCBI database states that 100K Americans died as a result of medical errors, and it’s dated 1999. https://bit.ly/3dxoRGy
68.5K Americans died from drug overdoses in 2018 https://cnn.it/2xhpEL6

We have not mentioned Cancer, smoking and cardiovascular diseases, all of which kill millions per year. What about the innocent children dying every day? They don’t matter. What’s shocking is that the other viruses that were deadlier did not even receive the same amount of attention. When all the above data is taken into consideration, the COVID 19 deaths in the US, while serious is nothing we should be panicking over.

Don’t focus only on the number of deaths but look at the mortality rate and then compare it to that of COVID-19.

Let’s take a closer look at the situation in the U.S. and New York

The U.S. is finally ramping up testing, and hopefully, every state starts to open up drive through testing centres like N.Y. New York finally decided to emulate South Korea. Based on the above figures, the overall death rate for the U.S. across all age groups is 3 percent, a far cry from the gloom and doom all the self-appointed experts have been laying out. Several thousand children under the age of five will die today, and yet no one declares an emergency for those poor children who are completely defenceless.

Let’s zoom in to New York the epicentre

Given all doom and gloom projections, the death rates in California should be higher than in New York. New York is an anomaly because the Governor and the mayor were asleep at the wheel and a large number of deaths were reported from nursing homes. However, despite over 670K individuals in California being infected with COVID, the mortality rate is only 1.8%. The overall death rate across of all age groups in South Korea now stands at 1.7% based on the latest data obtained from worldmeters.com and it’s quite comparable to that of California.

So pray do tell, where do these experts, including the governor and mayor of NYC, get off by issuing such gloomy forecasts. Taking action is one thing but fostering an atmosphere that is driven by fear is not the way to deal with such a situation.

China has ended the lockdown so that has to be viewed through a bullish lens and they continue to spray neighbourhoods with disinfectants to knock out the coronavirus. Even Indonesia is doing this, and we suspect a host of other nations will follow suit. Why are America and the rest of the West not adopting a similar strategy? It seems that Asian countries are leading the way in terms of taking a novel approach when it comes to dealing with this virus.

https://bit.ly/2JaCHR5

https://bit.ly/3dpkCN2

https://bit.ly/2wzdfSG

None of the data at hand supports the outrageous claims many officials and experts are putting forth. While the COVID 19 deaths in the US are trending upwards, they don’t even come close to matching the death rate of cancer, smoking, cardiovascular-related deaths, etc.

New York City, which is now the epicentre for America, has a remarkably low death rate. The media and duly elected officials should be broadcasting this information all over the place, to show the crowd that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. However, they seemed fixated on broadcasting only one side of the picture.

Technology: UBS cut workforce – RBI repo rate unchanged – UPS improved productivity

Posted on 02/20/2023 by Alan Solomon

Technology could help UBS cut workforce by 30 percent: CEO in magazine

ZURICH (Reuters) – Swiss bank UBS <UBSG.S> could shed almost 30,000 workers in the years ahead due to technological advances in the banking industry, Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti said in a magazine interview.

Ermotti told Bloomberg Markets that “process-oriented” companies see scope to cut workforces in half through new technology but he believed the true number for banks was around half that. “If you look at UBS, we employ a meaningful amount of people— almost 95,000, including contractors,” Ermotti said. “You can have 30 percent less, but the jobs are going to be much more interesting jobs, where the human content is crucial to the delivery of the service.”

Ermotti said the coming decade would be heavily influenced by technology, as the previous one was marked by regulation.

“It’s not the Big Bang; it’s going to be very gradual,” he said. “But you’re going to be faster — much more efficient, proficient. Instead of serving 50 clients, you’ll be able to serve 100 and in a more sophisticated way.”

Consultancy Accenture <ACN.N> said in May that three-quarters of bankers surveyed believed artificial intelligence (AI) will become the primary way banks interact with their customers within the next three years. Full Story

Another one bites the dust; it’s quite interesting that as soon as we stated that the trend had changed concerning AI and human Jobs; story after story has emerged indicating how fast this trend is gaining traction. At least 40% of today’s companies could end up being irrelevant in as little as ten years

RBI keeps repo rate unchanged but frees up more liquidity

The Reserve Bank of India held its policy rate steady near seven-year lows on Wednesday after inflation surged, but still looked to prop up the cooling economy by spurring banks into lending more.

The decision to keep the repo rate at 6.00 percent had been widely expected, with all but three of 60 analysts polled by Reuters predicting the RBI would stand pat after cutting the rate by 25 basis points (bps) in August. But in a concession to the weakening economy, which is growing at its slowest pace in over three years, policymakers surprised markets by taking steps to release more liquidity into the financial system.

The RBI said it would lower the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) — the amount of bonds that banks must set aside with the central bank — by 50 bps to 19.50 percent from mid-October. It had lowered the ratio by the same amount in June. Full Story

If you look around, central bankers are talking tough, but they are all talk and no action. The Majority of central banks from Japan to South Africa are an opting to leave rates unchanged. We wonder why? Well not really, as we have been stating all along, that anyone with a pea for a brain realises that this economic recovery is as bogus as they come. Remove the easy money and the glorious recovery vanishes.

The Philippines just joined the club of central bankers that see no reason to raise rates.

Philippine central bank Governor Nestor Espenilla said contained inflation means there isn’t a need to increase interest rates in the near term. “Right now there is no need to move policy rates looking at the inflation outlook,” Espenilla said in Washington where he was attending the annual International Monetary Fund meetings. “It might be too much of an anticipation to say we will raise interest rates at the next review.” Full Story

UPS CEO: Thanks to automation, we’re shipping more packages with the same number of people

The upcoming holiday period is shaping up to be another record-breaking shipping season. In fact, United Parcel Service (UPS) forecasts 750 million packages will be delivered between Black Friday and New Year’s Eve, a 5% increase from last year.

Despite the expected increase in volume, UPS expects to hire the same number of temporary seasonal workers as last year (95,000).

“Last year we hired about the same number of people and we’re doing it this year with an extra 5% of packages and it is because of automation,” UPS CEO David Abney told Yahoo Finance. Full story

Another confirmation that many jobs will cease to exist in the very near future; a day is going to dawn where individuals with an IQ that’s lower than 100 are going to find it almost impossible to land a decent job in developed nations.

US market live data chart and commentaries

Posted on 02/18/2023 by Alan Solomon

US market live trend

Through a difficult patch, and this is not something new; however, when it occurs, it seems like it is a brand-new event and the very first thing crops to mind is the term “fear” because the experts are claiming it is different this time.

They would talk less and do more if they understood what they talked about; being a bear is dangerous, for in the future, the US market will constantly tendency higher. Now attempt to see the fantastic depression, “Black Monday,” .etc.

If you have a look at all those “ends of the world occasions” closely, they are blips in an otherwise massive upward tendency. There are always likely to be days, weeks and sometimes weeks when the markets are coming down, but ultimately the US market has trended in 1 direction, which is “up”.

By viewing these disaster-type events via a lens that was bullish, massive fortunes were produced. In addition, we have Mass Psychology and the Trend Indicator on our side, both of which signify that this downtrend, at most, could turn out to be the backbreaking correction we spoke of recently. Every Bull Market experiences at one and 90% of the traders assume that this event marks the beginning of a trend.

US market live: Focus on Truth And Not Imagination

Take one event that most recalls, the fantastic Recession. Even if you mistimed your entrance and began to open positions before the Dow had bottomed, you would be sitting on massive gains today.

Panic should be seen via a lens that was squishy now that we are in the age of forever QE (Quantitative Easing) and above all remember when this sell-off started that the masses weren’t euphoric. There’s a time to sell, and that time appears when the masses are in a state of bliss.

When the markets sell off, it means there will be plenty of chances, so an individual should build a list of stocks that they always wished to purchase. US market always returns to the mean and hence the saying the larger the deviation from the mean the greater the opportunity. History clearly attests that finally, the market trends in one direction only (upward).

US Market: 2021 Predictions and Projections

The Dow Jones prediction, NASDAQ prognosis and S&P predictions continue to be rosy regardless of the rocketing COVID-19 diseases in California, Texas and Florida.

A wave or outbreaks is terrifying and upsetting Television commentators and investors it does not seem like the market wishes to slow down for the interest of this Corona Virus. Shore kids and the rioters put an attack on the nation together in hopes of shutting down the market, but it does not seem it will get the job done.

Of the indicators were down about 1 percent at the end of today, Tuesday, July 7th after yesterday that is climbing. It seems like an answer to rising COVID-19 diseases in a brand new record along with California yesterday. Nevertheless, instances have dropped from Florida.

Are superspreaders able to replicate exactly what they did last week’s bunch? Or is that the subversive threat in check? Investors’ Assurance and sentiment that the next shutdown will not occur isn’t 100.

He is referring to a secular bull market in which the S&P could attain 4000.

That has not occurred, although now a motion is projected. Rather, all indicators are up 1 hour to trading. The inadequate excellent stock market predictions, even for a single day beforehand, are alarming.

With $3 Trillion injected to the market and stimulation expected with more companies reopening, there is a reason for optimism at the stock markets.

2020 US Stock Market Predictions

It is an election year; it’s probably the administration will do what it can to keep the decade-long bull run, ” said Ryan Grace, chief market strategist for dough, a Chicago-based brokerage company. ”

I had expected more volatility heading into the election,” he said. “I really don’t find these current below-average levels in volatility being more sustainable.
There’s a close record short position in the volatility futures now and most of us know how that ended last time in February of 2018.”

Global Economic Slowdown Could ContinueGrace said he doesn’t see a breakout in yields throughout the curve that appears to be the telephone every year.”We are
Not from the woods yet regarding the ongoing global economic downturn,” he said. “China continues to slow, there are indications that the U.S. the economy is slowing and there’s no resolution to the transaction deal yet.”

The trade war remains the biggest issue facing shareholders, but”with markets where they are now, it seems most are optimistic there is a settlement coming,” Grace said. “The real details of the bargaining thing China can buy more agricultural goods and that is fantastic for the U.S. farmers, but it does not solve any of the more structural issues that got us here in the first place.” Federal Reserve May Should Be More AccommodativeWhile the Federal Reserve, the central bankers who vote on the future of interest, has said it plans to be on hold unless something changes in the market, there’s a possibility it might happen, Grace explained.”

US market forecast for next 3 months

Is this overall recovery likely to last in the summer? That raises another question, and that’s exactly what factors are most likely to affect markets throughout the next 3 weeks?
On its face, this doesn’t appear likely to encourage a stock-market recovery. Back in April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced: “As a consequence of the pandemic, the international market is projected to contract aggressively by 3 percent in 2020, considerably worse than during the 2008-09 fiscal meltdown.

In a baseline situation — that presumes the pandemic fades at the next half 2020 and containment attempts could be slowly unwound — the international market is projected to rise by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic action normalises, aided by coverage assistance.”

But as you could be thinking the 2021 figure doesn’t seem too bad. What’s our small stock-market rally doomed? One is that enormous amounts of bandwidth have been pumped to attempt and stabilise markets and there is. Not yet, although that service will be pulled. Rally. As a stock market crash could foretell an economic downturn, an uptrend can signal recovery. By instinct, investors and many traders prefer to walk the bright side of the road.

The lender sees the benchmark index closing annually at 3,000 – approximately 2% greater than its Friday near 2,930 – since the coronavirus hazard fades and the market stinks. Together with looming threats dragging the index at the end of the summer to 2,400 However, Goldman’s prediction reflects a drawback to its goal. The stock market’s recent surge in late-March lows is best attributed to some”fear of falling out”; mindset among investors, and doubt concerning the rally’s power stay, Goldman added.

The remedy is straightforward.

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