Stock market performance 2019

Posted on 03/06/2023 by Yanis P.

Stock Market 2018 Graph: The trend is your friend

Stock market performance 2019: Financial experts continue to state that the markets are going to crash, even though their record since this bull market started back in 2009 has been dismal to the say the least. To complicate matters, some of these same experts suddenly jump ship and start to paint a bullish picture until the markets start to pull back. Then they falsely assume that the markets are going to crash and start singing the “market is going to crash” song again.

Market sentiment is not extremely bullish, though the bullish sentiment has been trending upwards since Feb of this year. Crowd psychology states that one should only abandon the ship when the masses are euphoric. As that’s not the case, there is no reason to abandon the ship.

The Market has shed some weight, but given the massive run-up, this market has experienced this falls well within the normal ranges of an acceptable correction. In fact, the Dow could drop all the way to 21,500 without having any effect on the trend.

Stock market outlook 2018 still bullish according to TI Dow Theory

Our alternative Dow Theory states that the Dow follows the Utilities and unless the utilities drop to new lows the markets will continue trading within a wide range. The utilities have held up very well when one considers all the outside factors; extremely volatile geopolitical situation (trade wars, disputes with our NATO allies, etc.) and the extremely polarised way the masses are behaving. One would think that we are just one step away from a civil war.

Until the sentiment changes or the utilities drop to new lows, your best bet is to use strong pullbacks to purchase quality stocks.

Most financial experts are closer to clowns than experts, and most financial sites are on par with tabloids; their sole function is to create bombastic titles with little to no subject matter to back their faulty assertions. One would be best served by taking their advice with a barrel of salt and a shot of whiskey.

Focus on Mass Psychology and identify the sentiment that’s driving the masses. The Crowd drives the markets, and if you identify the emotion that’s driving them, you can determine the trend of the market.

Tactical Investor stock market 2018 outlook is also validated by the Dow Transports. Note that they are also holding up well and unless they trade below 9500 on a monthly basis, the outlook will remain bullish. The trend is your friend and everything else is your foe. As the trend is positive, view sharp pullbacks through a bullish lens; the stronger the deviation, the better the opportunity.

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

Random views on Stock Market 2018 Graph

2018 was a record-setting year for stocks, but it’s one investors would rather forget.

The Dow fell 5.6%. The S&P 500 was down 6.2% and the Nasdaq fell 4%. It was the worst year for stocks since 2008 and only the second year the Dow and S&P 500 fell in the past decade. (The S&P 500 and Dow were down slightly in 2015, but the Nasdaq was higher that year.)
December was a particularly dreadful month: The S&P 500 was down 9% and the Dow was down 8.7% — the worst December since 1931. In one seven-day stretch, the Dow fell by 350 points or more six times. This year’s Christmas Eve was the worst ever for the index.
The S&P 500 was up or down more than 1% nine times in December alone, compared to eight times in all of 2017. It moved that much 64 times during the year.
2018 wasn’t all bad. The S&P 500 set an all-time record on September 20, and the Dow closed at its record on October 3. The Dow also closed more than 1,000 points higher on December 26 — the first time it ever accomplished that feat.
But 2018 will be remembered for its extreme volatility. The VIX volatility index spiked, and CNN Business’ Fear & Greed Index has been stuck in “Extreme Fear” throughout much of the year. The Dow has swung 1,000 points in a single session only eight times in its history, and five of those took place in 2018. Full Story

Unlike last year, when the stock market rose steadily — and considerably — in the first quarter, Wall Street has gotten off to a disappointing and disconcerting start in 2018.

As concerns have shifted back and forth from a sluggish economy to an overheating one, the market has taken investors on a roller coaster ride, resulting in poor returns and testing investors’ strategy and resolve.

A SLUGGISH START
Unlike last year, stocks stumbled at the start of 2018.
Making matters worse, there has been no place to hide in the stock market so far this year.

In the first quarter, losses were felt across the board — not only in sectors that performed well at the start of 2017 but in both economically sensitive areas of the market (such as real estate and basic materials) and defensive areas (such as consumer staples and utilities).
Meanwhile, market volatility has come back with a vengeance.

Wall Street strategists typically look at the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index to judge the rockiness of the market. And by that gauge, which measures fear based on options trading, volatility returned to levels seen in the financial crisis years.

But there’s a simpler way to judge how shaky the market is, and that’s to count the number of days in which stocks climb or fall by 1% or more. In the first quarter of 2018, there were 25 such trading days, more than in any full year since 2009. Full Story

Here are some ingredients for stock-market gloom: A trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, a Federal Reserve pushing the yield curve toward inversion, and a U.S. president under investigation by an independent counsel.

But enough about 1994.

Seriously, though, investors might want to take a look back at the events of the same year that brought the world Forrest Gump and the founding of a plucky little company called Amazon for a “possible analog” to the current stock market environment, argued Tony Dwyer, analyst at Canaccord Genuity, in a Monday note that highlights the chart below, one that looks somewhat similar to the pattern seen in 2018.
The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.53% fell 1.5% in 1994, according to FactSet, while the index is down 3.9% in the year to date in 2018.

Dwyer emphasized that the backdrops now and in 1994 aren’t exactly alike, but said there are enough similarities between the current political, macroeconomic, Fed policy and market environment to that year to potentially offer some insights.

Moreover, if 1994 and 2018 share similar backdrops, does 1995 offer a guide to 2019? Dwyer noted that after the near-doubling of short-term interest rates in 1994, the first half of 1995 saw just 0.5% annualized gross domestic product growth. The Fed, however, remained worried about inflation and hiked interest rates one more time in February. Full Story

Quantitative Easing Definition

Posted on 03/05/2023 by Yanis P.

Forever Quantitative Easing: Is it here to stay?

The term forever QE has just started to come into play recently, and mainstream media is most likely going to embrace this term and weaponise it in not so distant future. However, we first addressed this phenomenon back in in 2015 and here is the link that details what was said at that time.

The outlook has only worsened since then; the new tax breaks corporations got will be used to purchase more shares, and the reason is simple, it pays more in the short term to boost profits by reducing share count than in investing in the company. Corporations will continue down this path until new laws are enacted and they will become more emboldened with time. Gone are the days when there was a semblance of caring for the investor; insiders are only concerned with how much they can make, and they don’t care if they destroy the company in the process. Share buybacks are rising and have continued to grow since we first posted that article.

Forever Quantitative Easing Fuelling Buyback binge

Buybacks appear to be nearing a crescendo, with total U.S. stock repurchase announcements crossing the $1 trillion mark in mid-December for the first time, according to Michael Schoonover, the portfolio manager of the Catalyst Buyback Strategy fund (ticker: BUYIX). “There’s been a significant pickup in recent weeks,” with markets in a downdraft, he adds. Announcements reached $1.08 trillion, with nearly half concentrated in 19 companies, which account for $460 billion of the total. Some of those are listed in the nearby table. Despite the record-setting buyback authorization levels, 2018 has been an unusual year in that fewer companies are accounting for the total buybacks, he says.

Take this as an early warning that should the media jackasses start pushing another B.S story, instead of panicking, one should break out of a bottle of champagne, and as the masses panic calmly sip on that champagne and build a list of strong stocks one always wanted to purchase. For those allergic to work, the option is simple; sit back and relax, for we always view crash type events as opportune moments when the trend is positive. Market update Feb 28, 2019

Mass Media Fails To Account For Forever Quantitative Easing

The wise guys at the Mass Media outlets are already pushing a new narrative. This is how they incept new ideas into the masses; you create doubt and then let that doubt grow. For example, they are making all sorts of dire predictions about Brexit (some of which border on the preposterous), they keep focussing on the calamitous consequences the US will face if there is no trade deal with China, experts are emerging about the dangers of lower rates and an inverted yield curve, etc. Well, think of any garbage and add it to this list. For that is what these garbage collectors do, they collect waste and try to spin it off as something valuable.

Before the Brexit vote, the naysayers made a great deal of noise of how a “yes” vote would lead to total chaos. So, what happened to that chaotic scene they predicted? We are not taking sides but looking at trends and history, and history is replete with examples illustrating that when “fear” is used as a weapon, the ones to fear are the ones putting this weapon to use.

History also demonstrates that in general individuals favour freedom over serfdom. Independence can never lead to chaos unless you are impinging on another person’s sovereignty in the process. Whatever narrative the Media is pushing, it is usually the opposing narrative that is true. According to the experts, the world should have ended several times over, and the Dow should have crashed and never risen years ago.

Naysayers are always wrong in the long run

One theme running through all those gloomy predictions of doom is that those making those dire predictions are doomed to be wrong. Case and point, the dire predictions market experts have made since the market bottomed in 2009. Or the idiotic stance by politicians such AOC on Amazon opening a new Head Quarters in NYC. This plan would have increased Tax revenues significantly and provided 25K plus jobs. Sam Zell, had some choice words on this topic, that pithily summarises the Amazon fiasco. Observe the video, and you will get a laugh from it as this is another one of those hot mike events.

Whether Amazon is fair in the way it conducts its business operations is a separate story; in terms of trends, companies like Amazon need to stop some of their predatory practices or risk being suddenly upended. AI is gaining traction at a stunning rate, and it is going to help many small companies take on industry giants at a speed that will stun these dinosaurs. While experts state that it could AI years to compete with Humans; we feel a major announcement could be made within the next 18-39 months that will stun the world. If this announcement is made, then AI will be smarter than humans in less than 36 months from the date of that announcement.

Uncertainty is still running high

The masses are still uncertain, and we find uncertainty adorable; nothing is more bullish for the markets than an undecided crowd.

The best time to buy is when the masses are in panic mode, and when one feels far from certain about the future of the markets; certainty is the secret word for failure when it comes to the stock markets. Market Update Feb 28, 2019

What is striking is that over the past several weeks the number of individuals in the Neutral camp has hardly budged and is gently trending upwards. Since the last update, we have two sets of new readings. Last week the number of individuals in the neutral camp stood at 39, this week they increased to 41. So far in 2019, the number of individuals in the neutral camp has always surpassed those in the bullish or bearish camps, and this is very revealing. It clearly indicates that the masses are suffering from a long term bias and that the political landscape is messing with their ability to distinguish reality from fiction.

Until we have a feeding frenzy stage, this bull market will not end
While you might feel sorry for them, just watch Pluto’s allegory of the cave to see how well the masses will reward you for trying to wake them up. In a nutshell, this development is a very bullish factor for it means that eventually, this market is going to experience what could turn out to be an extreme “feeding frenzy stage”. The crowd will ultimately be so mad they sat and did nothing for so long, that they will double up on this market and their sweet reward as always will be a very sharp guillotine.

Masses will eventually embrace this bull

However, contrarian players will mistake the initial surge in bullishness as a sign that the markets are ready to top out and will end up shedding a lot of tears in the process. At the Tactical Investor, our strategy is different; we will not adopt a position that opposes the masses until the crowd is in a state of ecstasy, in other words, the bandwagon of joy should be ready to collapse before we consider betting against the masses. As the masses held off for so long, the buying climax could last for an extended period. Remember the equation must always balance. As we are quite far from the “feeding frenzy stage”, there is no point in wasting too much time on it. Suffice to say, this bull market is not ready to die.

This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion. Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one. Market Update Feb 28, 2019

One should remember this paragraph every time the urge to panic starts to rise; no bull market has ever ended on a note of fear or anxiety. Despite the media trying to create a new narrative to prove otherwise for the past several years; they have failed miserably, showing that news, in general, should either be treated as rubbish or viewed through a humorous lens.

Conclusion

In terms of the stock market, until the Fed changes its mind, all sharp corrections have to be viewed as buying opportunities, and backbreaking corrections have to be placed in the category of “once in a lifetime events”, provided of course the trend is positive. That is what we are here for; to inform you if the trend is positive (Up) or negative (down). The world is going to witness a Fed that has decided to make a cocktail of Coke, Heroin, Crack and Meth and take it all in one shot. Imagine what a junkie on this combination of potent drugs is capable of doing, and you will have an idea of where the Fed is heading in the years to come. Market Update Feb 28, 2019

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

Random views on QE

Quantitative Easing definition?

Quantitative easing is an unconventional monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government securities or other securities from the market in order to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment. When short-term interest rates are at or approaching zero, normal open market operations, which target interest rates, are no longer effective, so instead a central bank can target specified amounts of assets to purchase. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by purchasing assets with newly created bank reserves in order to provide banks with more liquidity.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Quantitative easing, or “QE,” is the name for a strategy that a central bank can use to increase the domestic money supply.

QE is usually used when interest rates are already near 0 percent and can be focused on the purchase of government bonds from banks.

QE programs were widely used following the 2008 financial crisis, although some central banks, like the Bank of Japan, had been using QE for several years prior to the financial crisis. Full Story

Quantitative Easing Explained

Quantitative easing is a massive expansion of the open market operations of a central bank. It’s used to stimulate the economy by making it easier for businesses to borrow money. The bank buys securities from its member banks to add liquidity to capital markets. This has the same effect as increasing the money supply. In return, the central bank issues credit to the banks’ reserves to buy the securities.

Where do central banks get the credit to purchase these assets? They simply create it out of thin air. Only central banks have this unique power. This is what people are referring to when they talk about the Federal Reserve “printing money.”
Lower interest rates allow banks to make more loans. Bank loans stimulate demand by giving businesses money to expand. They give shoppers credit to purchase more goods and services.

By increasing the money supply, QE keeps the value of the country’s currency low. This makes the country’s stocks more attractive to foreign investors. It also makes exports cheaper.

Japan was the first to use QE from 2001 to 2006. It restarted in 2012, with the election of Shinzo Abe as Prime Minister. He promised reforms for Japan’s economy with his three-arrow program, “Abenomics.”
The U.S. Federal Reserve undertook the most successful QE effort. It added almost $2 trillion to the money supply. That’s the largest expansion from any economic stimulus program in history. Full Story

Why do we need quantitative easing?

The aim of QE is simple: by creating this ‘new’ money, we aim to boost spending and investment in the economy.
We are tasked with keeping inflation – rises in the prices of goods and services – low and stable.

The normal way we meet our inflation target is by changing Bank Rate, a key interest rate in the economy.

When the global recession took hold in late 2008, we quickly lowered Bank Rate from 5% to 0.5% to support the UK’s economic recovery. Lower interest rates mean it’s cheaper for households and businesses to borrow money – which encourages them to spend and invest, whether that’s a family buying a new car or a company wanting to build a new factory.

But there’s a limit to how low interest rates can go. So when we needed to act to boost the economy, we turned to another method of doing so: we introduced quantitative easing. Full Story

Stock Market Update

Posted on 02/26/2023 by Yanis P.

Stock Market Watch is our most popular and oldest stock market update service. As numerous upgrades and 2 upgrades are sent out through email.

Market Update Service

1) Each couple of two comprehensive updates are shipped out; one around the centre of this month and the next near the end of the month. In between, as many upgrades necessary are routed out.

2) Every problem includes the industry comment segment. Within this part, the management, the tendency and the arrangement of this market are analyzed.

3) At least 5-10 brand new plays are issued in every upgrade………. The performers fall under these categories. To learn more, click on some of the classes below.

Resource plays
Trend plays that are based on our trend indicator
Insider plays
Value plays,
Seasonal trend plays
Momentum plays

4) Our proprietary indices are updated each time deemed necessary. For information on these proprietary, see please here. Bonus for Joining now additionally, we provide an amazing bonus known as the safety centre. We give you the ability. Imagine being able to browse the internet. Don’t be duped. The majority of the services leak facets of your IP address out. This is called IP flow and high-cost charges. The support we’ll advocate is anonymous, with no IP escape.

About what’s given in the security centre for details, please click here. In our view, this is priceless as you’re supplies you with ways to completely reclaim your privacy and maintain it like that. The best of 95% of these tips will cost you, and the remaining 5 percent along with nothing endure a very moderate price. For complete details on the service, click on Stock Market Watch: Tactical Investor Past Calls

Stock Market Update: Fintech

Fintech is a mix of the words”fund” and”engineering,” and it is a broad category that includes businesses that employ new technologies to financial companies. Businesses that develop electronic solutions could be regarded as run and as might build payment software.

The possibility of fintech is really exciting. Even following the payments area in the last couple of years increase, the vast majority of payment arrangements around the globe are done in money. And though banking associations that online provide fee arrangements and interest rates which are far greater than those of banks, nearly all consumers utilize banking due to their needs.

As stated, fintech is a wide term that describes some firm that applies technology into the area of finance. There are various kinds of businesses which fall beneath the umbrella that is fintech. Merely to name a couple: Payment processing Online and mobile banking peer-to-peer and Online (P2P) creditors Person-to-person obligations Financial applications Fiscal services over the last several decades, Square (NYSE: SQ) has evolved out of a means for retailers to accept credit cards with their cell phone to a large scale small-business and respective financial ecosystem.

Possibly Square’s most fascinating portion is its own Money App, with 24 million active users going to infinite capability and 2020 to build its own service offerings out.

Emotions shouldn’t be involved in the Stock Market Update

Most of us know we shouldn’t mix our minds with a bull stock market, but that’s exactly what we risk doing if we concentrate on operation over five or fewer years. Given that this bull market is about to enter its sixth season, it’s a fantastic bet that a number of the best consultants in the preliminary performance positions only look like geniuses. 1 way to mostly eliminate the use of fortune is to focus on a whole market cycle — one that includes a bear market. Performance advisers have been focusing on functionality for years because they encircle both the current bull market but also the worst bear market since the Great Depression.

Their annualized returns range from 9.7% to 16.7%, versus 6% to the dividend-adjusted S&P 500 index. Note that because the majority of the performers over this period try to maintain their version portfolios nearly fully invested in any way time, they can be expected to suffer big losses during a bear market. However, if the future resembles the past, come out ahead of those who take part in market time — and they can create more during other occasions to more than make up for these losses.

Stock Market Quotes and Sayings

Posted on 02/25/2023 by Yanis P.

Warren Buffett usually has produced a lot of great stock market quotes in regards to the discipline of investing; his own guidance concerning purchasing and selling real stocks isn’t always sage. He’s made two errors; IBM he got at the very top and outside in the base and he jumped to Apple in the time and proceeded to heap in because the stock dropped. But generally, when he doesn’t venture into technology stocks, his record appears to be pretty great, provided one is prepared to maintain these investments for a lengthy period When investors get too scared or too greedy, they sometimes hide behind the idea that. It is always distinct in the brain of the masses, but in fact, its the exact same old story.

That’s the reason why the masses are on the side of this marketplace and never triumph. Mass psychology says that you ought to purchase when the masses market with they’re euphoric and fear.

Insight to Buffett’s successful investment mindset

“Don’t take annual results too badly. Rather, focus on five-year averages” “Turnarounds rarely turn.”

“2 super-contagious ailments, greed and fear, will permanently happen in the investment area. The timing of those epidemics will be unpredictable. Risk comes from not understanding what it is you’re doing.”

On endurance, in 3 cases “It is much better to buy a superb company at a good price, than a fair company at a great price.” Warren Buffett has contributed several insights through time into what is needed to be a successful investor.

We will discuss a few of those quotations and words of knowledge now:

“If Berkshire purchases common stock, we approach the trade like we’re buying into a personal business enterprise.”

“Accounting effects don’t affect our functioning or capital-allocation decisions. When acquisition prices are alike, we prefer to buy $2 of earnings which aren’t reportable by us below normal accounting principles compared to buy 1 of earnings which are reportable.”

Buffett Stock Market Quotes On being clever and being powerful …

By investing in an index fund, the know-nothing investor could actually outperform many investment professionals” My take on such an issue: If you need above-average consequences with below-average dangers, make periodic investments in index funds and leave the money there until you want it.”

Now let us consider some other Warren Buffett stones which has his ideas on the worth of value investing, the non-value of forecasts, after the herd, the tarnish of gold as an investment, and much more. Buffett in Identifying New Investment Opportunities says investors should search for something that they have in common with all the businesses in question and that it’s far better to invest in fewer firms rather than purchasing various inventory in various businesses.

He also believes that one should purchase a stock with the intention of holding it for the Long Run, forever if a potential “Unless it is possible to see your inventory holding decrease by 50 percent without getting panic-stricken, you ought not to be at the stock exchange.”

“Risk could be greatly decreased by focusing on just a few holdings.”

“It’s optimism that’s the enemy of the rational buyer”

“Whether we are talking about stocks or socks, I enjoy purchasing a quality product when it’s discounted.”

That is what worth investing is all about. Do not let greed and fear alter your investment criteria and worth. Avoid being overrun. Never market into a panic. Buffet only invests in businesses he knows and thinks have predictable or stable merchandise for the subsequent 10 — 15 decades. That is the reason tech businesses have been prevented by him. Heal investing in stock as if you’re purchasing the whole business. I take a look since this is the price of a business.

It is the price you’d be paying for your business if you could purchase the company at current prices. He’d rather pay a reasonable price for a fantastic business than a minimal price for a fair business. Investment opportunities become accessible through wide market corrections or stocks which become deals. These aren’t occasions.

If you took all the gold on earth, it would roughly make a block 67 feet on a side… Now for the exact same block of gold, it’d be worth at the current market prices approximately $7 trillion — that is probably about a third of their value of all of the stocks in the USA. For $7 trillion you might have roughly seven Exxon Mobil Firms and a hundred bucks of cash. … If you offered me the option of looking at a 67-foot block of gold daily,… call me mad, but I will choose the farmland and the Exxon Mobil Firms.

Top 4 Stock Market Quotes

1. “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” – Benjamin Franklin

When it comes to investing, nothing will pay off more than educating yourself. Do the necessary research, study, and analysis before making any investment decisions.
2. “Bottoms in the investment world don’t end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows.” – Jim Rogers

While 10- to 15-year lows are not common, they do happen. During these down times, don’t be shy about going against the trend and investing; you could make a fortune by making a bold move or lose your shirt. Remember quote #1 and invest in an industry you’ve researched thoroughly. Then, be prepared to see your investment sink lower before it turns around and starts to pay off.
3. “I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett

Be prepared to invest in a down market and to “get out” in a soaring market, as per the philosophy of Warren Buffett.
4. “The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.” – Phillip Fisher

Another testament to the fact that investing without an education and research will ultimately lead to regrettable investment decisions. Research is much more than just listening to popular opinion. Read more

Stock Market Sayings & Quotes

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.
John Templeton

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
John Maynard Keynes

Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.
Peter Lynch

If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys.
James Goldsmith

You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready, you won’t do well in the markets.
Peter Lynch

Set your mind on a definite goal and observe how quickly the world stands aside to let you pass.
Napoleon Hill

It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.
George Soros

It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.
Warren Buffett

Business opportunities are like buses, there’s always another one coming.
Richard Branson

The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different’.
Sir John Templeton Read more

US Dow Jones Outlook

Posted on 02/24/2023 by Yanis P.

US Dow Jones Stock Market Outlook

Huge amounts of money have abandoned the marketplace, suggesting the audience is panicking at the incorrect time. History illustrates the Crowd is not right over the long term; they undergo moments of success but these minutes dwarf years of declines when the markets take off, they’re made to survive.
The Dow Jones market has now dipped under 27K (on a monthly basis), and so There’s a fantastic chance that one of the 2 results we prefer can come to pass:

The Dow falls fast and hard into the 25,500 to 26,000 ranges, the audience stampedes and, in doing so, produces a beautiful long-term chance for Tactical Investor. The industry pulls back a little and, after those tendencies sideways and, in doing this, pushes our signs to the oversold ranges.

That’s why the rewards are very significant, and that’s why there’s no reward. Although staying calm in the face of fear requires no effort, Mass Psychology shows that you shouldn’t follow the herd since they do the incorrect thing at the ideal time.

Before we get in the perspective, let’s look at what we have stated over the last few months:
Under these circumstances, the strategy is to use pullbacks to start places in businesses; the more powerful the pullback, the greater the chance. We can see indications that 2018 ought to be a fantastic season for those markets. Individuals awaiting the entry points will likely be left.

They wish they’d purchased, as they did back in 2009, 2015, 2018 and currently in 2020 and will return at the entrance points. If push comes to shove, they bend and drop for the exact same play; although the audience never learns, they state that they need to try out something fresh.
It requires a particular sort of dumb to be a Permabear, the one that a million hard slaps won’t change.

Permabears have a death wish, for nothing else could describe this means of thinking; they’re begging to be taken to the cleaners. A simple evaluation of any term graph will establish that being a Permabear is not likely to pay off. There’s not a single long-term graph that may prove that carrying a position, in the long term, has paid off.

Copper continues to devote a pattern and we all guess it won’t be long then until the markets burst, after the MACD’s on the graphs encounter a crossover.

In the event the market pulls back, it is a bonus, and that is precisely why we also adopt the position that if the trend is upward; the more powerful the stalks, the greater the chance. Because the tendency is upward pullbacks should be looked at as Christmas bonuses. Pullbacks may be used to start or add to the present rankings of one.

An individual can observe that from crashes, corrections that are powerful or a long-term perspective are not anything but purchasing opportunities. Buy when blood flows on the roads once the herd turns off and run to your life.

As stated by the alternative Dow Theory, when the Dow utility commerce to fresh highs, it suggests the general market will follow suit sooner than after.

US Dow Jones Predictions 2020

At this point, anyone may probably get their Dow Jones predictions wrong, as the international economic aftermath of the coronavirus can’t be anticipated while the crisis persists.

On the flip side, an analysis of the index’s components and its own historical behaviour during and after certain disasters could stage investors in the right direction when it comes to drafting a potential Dow Jones index forecast for 2020.

So far, the major stock indices worldwide have lost a significant portion of their value, with the DJIA falling by nearly 30 percent, followed by the S&P 500, which has lost nearly 28 percent, and the FTSE 100, whose worth has dropped by 26 percent since February 20, when the markets started falling off a cliff without any signs of recovery on the horizon.

However, no academic could predict a worldwide pandemic like the coronavirus outbreak because the ultimate cause for a worldwide recession, and to be honest, that would be?
-Or worse, will the Dow Jones go up anywhere near its pre-coronavirus degree in the not-too-distant future?

Many economists have been warning that a possible recession was right at the corner, pointing out to many variables and deploying notions. These included a possible passive-investment bubble, the deceleration of the global market because of a supply-demand imbalance, and the possibly damaging aftermath of this continuing (yet paused) US-China trade warfare.

2020/07/14. US Dow Jones Industrial Average index forecast for next months and years.

Dow Jones forecast for July 2020.
The forecast for the beginning of July 25735. Maximum value 26639, while minimum 23270. The averaged index value for month 25100. Index at the end 24755, change for July -3.8%.

DJIA forecast for August 2020.
The forecast for the beginning of August is 24755. The maximum value is 25241, while the minimum is 22383. The average index value for the month is 24048. The index at the end is 23812, and the change for August is 3.8%.

Dow Jones forecast for September 2020.
The forecast for the beginning of September 23812. Maximum value 25498, while minimum 22612. The average index value for the month is 23994. Index at the end 24055, change for September 1.0%. Read more

Dow Jones Forecast For 2020 And 2021

This Dow Jones forecast for 2020 and 2021 relies on our 2 significant indicators: Treasury prices as well as the Russell 2000. The first one states that danger’ is currently returning to markets, and the other one is risk-on is starting as soon as the Russell 2000 index crosses 1625 points.
Based on the components within this guide, we conclude that the likelihood of stock markets moving greater in 2020 and 2021 is large. Our Dow Jones forecast is bullish for 2020 and 2021. This implies that we can reasonably anticipate returns in stock markets.
We strongly recommend readers to subscribe to our free newsletter as we will be publishing those high potential multi-baggers we identify in 2020.
Our prediction for the Dow Jones is bullish for 2020 and 2021! We predict a peak of 32,000 points in 2020 and a further rise in the index in 2021.
What we are interested in is to understand whether the stock bull market is the place to be spent in for 2020 and 2021. We want to be invested in bull market trends, and this will be helped by the Dow Jones forecast.
As said before, we’re watching out for markets that eventually become multi-baggers in 6 to 9 months’ time. We dedicated earlier Forecasting The 3 Top Opportunities Per Year Becomes InvestingHaven’s Mission. We can know in which way to look for all these returns that are extraordinary if we get the level tendency.

Dow Jones predictions: Next Target Dow 30k?

Posted on 02/19/2023 by Yanis P.

Dow 22K Predicted In July 2017; Next Target Dow 30k?

Dow Jones predictions: The Dow appears to have broken through the top of the Channel formation that fell in the 20,800-21,000 ranges. If it closes above 21,300 on a monthly basis then despite the markets being overbought, the Dow could surge past 22K before running into a strong zone of resistance. Market Update June 18, 2017

Give the resiliency of this market; the Dow could very easily trade to 22K before it trades to 19K. The masses need to show some enthusiasm; if they don’t and the market pulls back strongly, then it has to be viewed as a screaming buy. For now, the masses seem to be locked in the pessimistic mode.

The bullish sentiment has never traded to the 60% ranges even once this year; it did not even make it to the 55% ranges, and that is very telling. On the same token, the number of individuals in the neutral camp has generally continued to trend higher and higher. Market Update July 6, 2017

What’s next for the Dow Jones?

Not only did the Dow Jones trade to 22K but it surpassed this target and is now dangerously close to striking 23K. The sentiment is still not bullish, so the path of least resistance is upward. As for Dow 30K; there is a good chance that the Dow could strike this target. We discuss that in full detail in this article titled “Dow Could Trade to 30K But not before This Happens ”

If you prefer to watch a video; then the video covers the essential points of the above article

Dow forecast by longforecast.com

2020/01/03. Dow Jones Industrial Average index forecast for next months and years.

Dow Jones forecast for January 2020.
The forecast for beginning of January 28538. Maximum value 29368, while minimum 26044. Averaged index value for month 27914. Index at the end 27706, change for January -2.9%.

DJIA forecast for February 2020.
The forecast for beginning of February 27706. Maximum value 28512, while minimum 25284. Averaged index value for month 27100. Index at the end 26898, change for February -2.9%.

Dow Jones forecast for March 2020.
The forecast for beginning of March 26898. Maximum value 29007, while minimum 25723. Averaged index value for month 27248. Index at the end 27365, change for March 1.7%. Read More

Dow forecast by investinghaven.com

Our Dow Jones forecast for 2020 and 2021 is strongly bullish. We expect the Dow Jones to peak near 32,000 points in 2020. It will continue its rise in 2021. We forecast a crash in the Dow Jones in 2022. Investors should get the maximum out of the bullish potential from our Dow Jones forecast for 2020 and 2021. Note that this another critical piece in our annual series of forecasts because it paints a very clear picture of our general market forecasts for 2020: bullish stock market (not only this bullish Dow Jones forecast but all global stock markets), bullish peak in precious metals, some commodities bullish, strongly bullish crypto markets.

Why This Dow Jones Prediction?
What we are really interested in is to understand whether the stock bull market is the place to be invested in for 2020 and 2021. We want to be invested in bull market trends, and the Dow Jones prediction will help with this.

As said before we are on the lookout of markets that become a multi bagger in 6 to 9 months time. We committed before on this: Forecasting The 3 Top Opportunities Per Year Becomes Invsting Haven’s Mission. If we get the high level trend right we can know in which direction to look for these extraordinary returns. Read More

Retirement Portfolio Diversification: The Refined Art of Securing Your Financial Future

Posted on 02/16/2023 by Yanis P.

Introduction: Understanding the Importance of Retirement Portfolio Diversification

As you approach retirement, one of the most crucial aspects of securing your financial future is ensuring your investment portfolio is well-diversified. Retirement portfolio diversification is the refined art of spreading your investments across various asset classes, sectors, and geographical regions to minimize risk and maximize potential returns. By diversifying your portfolio, you can protect your wealth from market volatility and economic uncertainties while achieving your long-term financial goals.

According to a Vanguard study, a well-diversified portfolio can reduce volatility by up to 85% compared to a non-diversified one. This highlights the significance of diversification in managing risk and optimizing returns. As you embark on your journey towards a secure retirement, understanding the key principles and strategies of portfolio diversification becomes paramount.

The Building Blocks of a Diversified Retirement Portfolio

A well-diversified retirement portfolio typically consists of a mix of traditional asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and cash and alternative investments like real estate, commodities, and private equity. Each asset class has unique characteristics, risk profiles, and potential for returns. By allocating your investments across these asset classes, you can create a balanced portfolio that aligns with your risk tolerance and investment objectives.

Stocks, for example, offer the potential for capital appreciation and long-term growth but also come with higher volatility. On the other hand, bonds provide a more stable income stream and can help mitigate the impact of stock market downturns. Cash and cash equivalents are a safety net, providing liquidity and stability during market turbulence.

According to a report by J.P. Morgan Asset Management, a diversified portfolio consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds has historically delivered an average annual return of 8.7% over the past 20 years, with significantly lower volatility than an all-stock portfolio. This underscores the importance of asset allocation in achieving optimal risk-adjusted returns.

Diversifying Within Asset Classes

In addition to diversifying across asset classes, it’s equally important to diversify within each asset class. For instance, when investing in stocks, you should consider spreading your investments across different sectors, such as technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer goods. This helps mitigate the impact of sector-specific risks and ensures that your portfolio is not overly exposed to any single industry.

Similarly, diversification can be achieved when investing in bonds by including a mix of government, corporate, and municipal bonds with varying maturities and credit ratings. This approach helps manage interest rates and credit risk while providing a steady income stream.

A study by the CFA Institute found that diversification within asset classes can reduce portfolio risk by up to 30%, highlighting the significance of intra-asset class diversification in managing overall portfolio risk.

The Role of International Diversification

In today’s globalized economy, international diversification has become essential to a well-rounded retirement portfolio. By investing in global stocks and bonds, you can tap into the growth potential of emerging markets and benefit from the diversification of economic cycles and currency fluctuations.

According to a report by Morningstar, adding international stocks to a U.S.-based portfolio can increase returns by up to 2% per year while reducing overall portfolio risk. This is because international markets often have low correlations with domestic markets, meaning they may perform differently during various market conditions.

However, it’s important to note that international investing also comes with its own risks, such as currency, political, and regulatory risks. Therefore, it’s crucial to carefully consider these factors and work with a financial advisor to determine the appropriate level of international exposure for your retirement portfolio.

Rebalancing Your Portfolio: Maintaining the Optimal Asset Allocation

Over time, the performance of different asset classes can cause your portfolio’s asset allocation to drift away from its original target. This is where regular portfolio rebalancing comes into play. Rebalancing involves periodically adjusting your portfolio’s holdings to align the asset allocation with your desired targets.

According to a study by Vanguard, regular rebalancing can increase annual returns by up to 0.4% compared to a portfolio that is not rebalanced. This may seem like a small difference, but compounded over time, it can have a significant impact on retirement savings.

When rebalancing your portfolio, consider factors such as your risk tolerance, investment objectives, and time horizon. You may also want to consult a financial advisor to determine the optimal rebalancing frequency and strategy for your situation.

The Importance of Professional Guidance

Navigating the complexities of retirement portfolio diversification can be challenging, especially for those who lack the time, knowledge, or expertise to make informed investment decisions. This is where seeking the guidance of a qualified financial advisor can be invaluable.

A financial advisor can help you assess your risk tolerance, define your investment objectives, and develop a customized portfolio that aligns with your unique needs and goals. They can also provide ongoing monitoring and rebalancing services to ensure your portfolio remains on track.

According to a study by Vanguard, working with a financial advisor can add up to 3% in net returns per year, thanks to their asset allocation, tax optimization, and behavioural coaching expertise. This highlights the value of professional guidance in achieving your retirement goals.

Conclusion: Embracing the Art of Diversification for a Secure Retirement

Retirement portfolio diversification is a refined art that requires careful planning, disciplined execution, and ongoing monitoring. You can minimise risk, maximise potential returns, and secure your financial future by spreading your investments across various asset classes, sectors, and geographical regions.

Remember, diversification is not a one-time event but an ongoing process requiring regular attention and adjustments. By staying informed, seeking professional guidance, and embracing the principles of diversification, you can navigate the complexities of retirement investing with confidence and peace of mind.

As you embark on your journey towards a secure retirement, keep in mind the words of legendary investor Warren Buffett: “Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.” By educating yourself, working with a trusted financial advisor, and implementing a well-diversified retirement portfolio, you can take control of your financial destiny and enjoy a prosperous retirement.

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Black Monday – The stock market crash of 1987

Posted on 02/12/2023 by Yanis P.

Black Monday: The Day Wall Street Fell

On October 19, 1987, global stock markets experienced one of the most dramatic single-day declines in history, an event that would come to be known as “Black Monday.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6%, its largest one-day percentage drop ever. This financial earthquake sent shockwaves through markets worldwide, leaving investors shell-shocked and economists scrambling for explanations. The reverberations of Black Monday continue to echo through financial history, offering valuable lessons about market psychology, systemic risks, and the delicate balance of global finance.

The Perfect Storm: Factors Leading to the Crash

The causes of Black Monday were complex and multifaceted, involving a confluence of economic, technological, and psychological factors. In the months leading up to October 1987, the bull market had been running hot, with the Dow gaining over 40% in the first eight months of the year. This rapid ascent had pushed valuations to historically high levels, creating a potentially unstable situation.

Warren Buffett, the legendary value investor, had warned about the dangers of overvaluation in the months preceding the crash. He famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” In the context of Black Monday, this wisdom proved prescient, as the market’s greed-driven ascent set the stage for a fear-driven collapse.

Several macroeconomic factors also contributed to market jitters. Rising interest rates, a weakening dollar, and growing trade deficits created uncertainty about the U.S. economy’s future. These concerns were exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Persian Gulf.

The Role of Program Trading and Portfolio Insurance

A critical factor in the severity of the Black Monday crash was the widespread use of computer-driven trading strategies, particularly portfolio insurance. This technique, designed to protect large institutional investors from market downturns, involved selling stock index futures as the market declined. In theory, this would offset losses in the underlying stock portfolio.

However, as John Bogle, founder of Vanguard and pioneer of index investing, later observed, “The idea that you can use futures for portfolio insurance is one of the most mischievous ideas that’s ever come into Wall Street.” The problem was that as more investors adopted these strategies, they created a self-reinforcing cycle of selling pressure.

On Black Monday, as the market began to decline, portfolio insurance programs triggered widespread selling of futures contracts. This, in turn, led to further declines in the stock market, triggering more selling. The result was a cascade effect that overwhelmed the market’s normal stabilizing mechanisms.

Mass Psychology and Market Panic

The events of Black Monday offer a stark illustration of the power of mass psychology in financial markets. As prices began to fall rapidly, fear and panic spread among investors, leading to a classic “flight to quality” as traders rushed to sell stocks and move into safer assets like Treasury bonds.

George Soros, the renowned hedge fund manager known for his theory of reflexivity, has often spoken about the self-reinforcing nature of market trends. In the context of Black Monday, Soros’s insights are particularly relevant. He argues that market participants’ perceptions can influence the fundamentals they are trying to reflect, creating feedback loops that can lead to extreme outcomes.

This psychological cascade was evident on Black Monday, as the initial decline in prices led to increased selling pressure, which in turn caused further price declines. This self-reinforcing cycle of fear and selling created a market environment where rational analysis was overwhelmed by emotional reactions.

Cognitive Biases in Action

The Black Monday crash also provides a vivid example of how cognitive biases can influence investor behaviour. One particularly relevant bias is the availability heuristic, where people judge the likelihood of an event based on how easily they can recall similar occurrences. Before Black Monday, many investors had become complacent due to the long-running bull market, underestimating the possibility of a severe market downturn.

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s long-time business partner and a student of human psychology, has often spoken about the importance of understanding cognitive biases in investing. He once said, “The psychology of misjudgment is a terribly important thing to learn.” The events of Black Monday underscore this point, demonstrating how collective cognitive biases can contribute to market instability.

Technical Analysis and Market Signals

From a technical analysis perspective, there were warning signs in the market before Black Monday. The Dow had reached a then-record high of 2,722 points in August 1987, but had begun to show signs of weakness in the weeks leading up to the crash. Many technical indicators, such as the advance-decline line and the number of stocks making new highs versus new lows, had been diverging from the market’s upward trend.

William O’Neil, founder of Investor’s Business Daily and developer of the CAN SLIM investment strategy, has emphasized the importance of recognizing these technical warning signs. He argues that investors should pay close attention to the market’s overall health, not just individual stock prices. In the case of Black Monday, these broader market indicators were flashing warning signs that many investors overlooked.

The Global Nature of the Crash

One of the most striking aspects of Black Monday was its global nature. Markets around the world experienced severe declines, highlighting the increasing interconnectedness of global finance. The crash began in Hong Kong and spread westward through European markets before hitting the United States.

John Templeton, a pioneer of global investing, often spoke about the importance of looking beyond one’s home market. The events of Black Monday underscored this point, demonstrating how financial contagion could spread rapidly across borders. This global dimension added to the sense of panic, as investors realized that there was nowhere to hide from the market turmoil.

The Role of Market Makers and Liquidity

One factor that exacerbated the severity of the crash was the failure of many market makers to fulfill their role of providing liquidity. As selling pressure mounted, many market makers stepped away, refusing to buy stocks or quoting extremely wide bid-ask spreads. This lack of liquidity further fueled the market’s decline.

Paul Tudor Jones II, a hedge fund manager who famously predicted and profited from the 1987 crash, has spoken about the importance of understanding market structure and liquidity dynamics. He once said, “The most important rule of trading is to play great defence, not great offence.” On Black Monday, the breakdown of normal market-making activities highlighted the crucial role that liquidity plays in maintaining orderly markets.

The Aftermath and Policy Responses

In the immediate aftermath of Black Monday, there were fears of a repeat of the Great Depression. However, swift action by the Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Alan Greenspan, helped stabilize the markets. The Fed issued a statement pledging to provide liquidity to support the financial system and quickly lowered interest rates.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has often emphasized the importance of understanding how policy responses can shape market outcomes. The Fed’s actions after Black Monday demonstrated the powerful role that central banks can play in stabilizing financial markets during times of crisis.

In addition to monetary policy responses, regulators implemented several changes to market structure in the wake of Black Monday. These included the introduction of circuit breakers, which automatically halt trading if the market falls by a certain percentage, and limits on program trading.

Lessons Learned and Long-Term Implications

Black Monday served as a wake-up call for investors and regulators alike, highlighting the potential for sudden, severe market dislocations. It underscored the importance of risk management and the dangers of overreliance on computer models that may not adequately account for extreme events.

Benjamin Graham, often referred to as the father of value investing, famously said, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” The events of Black Monday demonstrated the truth of this statement, showing how short-term market movements can be driven by fear and speculation rather than fundamental value.

For long-term investors, Black Monday reinforced the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach. As Peter Lynch, the legendary Fidelity fund manager, often advised, “The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” Those who held steady or even bought during the panic were rewarded as the market recovered relatively quickly, with the Dow regaining its pre-crash level by early 1989.

The Legacy of Black Monday

More than three decades later, Black Monday remains a pivotal event in financial history. It serves as a reminder of the market’s capacity for extreme movements and the importance of preparing for tail risks. The crash also accelerated trends towards globalization and computerization in financial markets, shaping the modern trading landscape.

Jesse Livermore, a legendary trader from the early 20th century, once said, “There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” While the specific circumstances of Black Monday may not be repeated, the underlying lessons about market psychology, systemic risk, and the importance of liquidity remain highly relevant today.

As we reflect on Black Monday, it’s worth considering the words of Carl Icahn, the activist investor: “The key to success is to keep growing in all areas of life – mental, emotional, spiritual, as well as physical.” For investors and market participants, this means continually learning from past events like Black Monday, adapting to new market realities, and always staying vigilant for the next potential market-moving event.

Conclusion: Black Monday’s Enduring Relevance

Black Monday stands as a stark reminder of the market’s capacity for extreme movements and the complex interplay of factors that can lead to financial crises. It highlights the importance of understanding market psychology, the potential pitfalls of new technologies, and the crucial role of liquidity in maintaining market stability.

As Jim Simons, the mathematician and hedge fund manager, once observed, “The best way to make money is to have a lot of uncorrelated bets.” The events of Black Monday underscore the wisdom of this approach, demonstrating the dangers of overconcentration and the value of diversification.

Ultimately, Black Monday is a powerful lesson in humility for all market participants. It reminds us that no matter how sophisticated our models or how long a bull market has run, the potential for sudden, severe market dislocations always exists. By studying and understanding events like Black Monday, investors and policymakers can work to build more resilient financial systems and develop strategies to navigate future market turbulence.

Stock Market Trends

Posted on 02/08/2023 by Yanis P.

Tactical Investor Volatility Index Readings are Soaring

Stock Market Trends: Volatility Index readings have surged to a new high (as shown in the header image above), which means that extreme behaviour in all areas can be expected in and out of the markets. Additionally, we added new psychological data points to the V-Indicator and we suspect that this new high could correspond to a new development in the Coronavirus outbreak. Let’s hope it’s a positive one.

The ETF Trend Portfolio is our most conservative portfolio, so in the light of recent developments, one of which is that V-readings have soared to new highs, we are going to err on the side of caution. This is a dangerous development as over the past 12 months we added a new psychological component to this indicator, and this new high corresponds to the Coronavirus outbreak.

We are not in the “panic” generating business, so there is no need to panic, but this development could mean (operative word being “could”) that China is not telling the full story. The dangerous development is in regards to extreme market volatility; the market could shed several thousand points and then recoup these losses just as fast. Most traders are not prepared for this type of action, so when the market’s pullback strongly or appear to be crashing, they will throw the baby out with the bathwater and in doing so make a colossal mistake.

We are not going to squander time mincing words; instead we are going to provide hard cold facts that will more than clearly broadcast how extremely effective and accurate this service is. Read more about our VIP Futures Service.

China Could be downplaying the situation

In all likelihood, China is releasing selective pieces of data, but in general, the world is used to this. However, what could trigger a sharp reaction from the markets is if this data proves to be damaging. There have been previous scares before and in each case, the markets sold off, but the sell-off proved to be a buying opportunity. The last sell-off was due to the Ebola virus scare back in Oct of 2018.

In the long run, this is not a negative development as the long term trend is still bullish, so if it comes to pass, we will have an opportunity to get into stocks and ETF’s at a discount. We have adjusted pending sell orders, stops and in some cases, cancelled pending orders on the following ETF’s. Bottom line while prudence is warranted, Panic is not; hence focus on the trend and ignore the noise.

Volatility Index readings are high but we are not going to follow the herd

Hence the statement below refers to several dangerous trends but not the ones that come straight to one’s mind:

This is a dangerous development as over the past 12 months we added a new psychological component to this indicator, and this new high corresponds to the Coronavirus outbreak. Interim Market Update Jan 31, 2020

We want to clarify what we mean by dangerous (in the above statement) as we don’t want anyone to falsely assume that we are embracing some of the wild conspiracy theories being put forward regarding this virus. We analysed the data thoroughly, especially the psychological data. We also looked at data evaluated by other level headed experts; many thanks to our subscribers for providing links to some of these experts, which once again solidifies our claim that we are fortunate enough to some have some of the best minds out there as part of our community. We have concluded that the Coronavirus issue is being blown out of proportion.

Weaponised news; A dangerous trend with no end in sight

The first trend is that news is going to be weaponised to the extreme to support whatever narrative a given group of individuals have decided to embrace or force on a subset of the crowd. Secondly, as V-readings have no surged to new highs, the market will experience more random bouts of extreme volatility and this should be embraced when the trend is positive.

Thirdly, violence (as in wars, crime, etc), wild weather patterns will be more prevalent going forward and extreme and we mean extremely stupid behaviour is going to be embraced. Lastly, polarisation levels are going to rise to such an extreme that we could reach a point where a simple disagreement set off something akin to a mini civil war.

Back to the Coronavirus issue:

In Asia, masks are selling out like hotcakes and we suspect many stocks that are in the vaccine creation field have experienced huge price increases. In other words, a group of companies are making out like bandits while the masses being fleeced again. The data out there states that this virus has a mortality rate of 3% and no new data has come out refuting it.

Therefore we find it quite interesting that many financial experts with no background in medicine or psychology have gone out of their way to state that the situation is on the verge of becoming a pandemic. Too many experts believe in the deep state, while there is an apparatus that could be called the “deep state”, their understanding of this topic is limited at best.

The way these power brokers work is to indoctrinate people, so the players are willing participants or blind participants (blind as in being mentally blind and not physically blind) which boil down to the same thing. These individuals are used as cannon fodder; the objective is achieved by pandering to their wild fantasies. This objective is achieved by allowing Gossip artists to masquerade as reporters. In the old days, they would be called fisherwomen.

As of now, we have found no objective data that backs the many claims non-experts are pushing regarding the Coronavirus and the only dangerous trends we see are the ones we have addressed above. Could the situation change? Yes, anything is possible, but history reveals that most naysayers are full of hot air as the world was supposed to have officially ended a long time ago

We had pandemics before so this is nothing new

As I am typing, people are dying all over the world. In the time it took me to type this sentence, more than 15 people died. Seventy-eight thousand people have died today, and the number will rise to 80,000 or more by the time you get this update. So far this year 9,500,000 people have died, and that number rises every second. One could state that death is a pandemic, but no one is screaming about that issue. Smoking-related and or Cancer-related deaths could be also classified as a pandemic as more than 16.6 million will die this year from both, and yet no one makes a big deal (9.6 million from cancer and seven million-plus from smoking).

To date, roughly 2860 people have died from the coronavirus, and suddenly it’s the new Black Death. To be clear, we are not making light of the situation, but so much attention is being given to this one agent when compared to other agents of death. Here is an interesting fact; there are twice as many new births as deaths on a global basis. Live data on world deaths, birth rates, coronavirus deaths, etc. can be obtained from here http://bit.ly/32wVaQA

High Volatility Index Readings: Use This To Your Advantage

There have been more than a dozen outbreaks since 1980 and with far deadlier outcomes in some instances, but if you look at the chart above, after a knee jerk reaction, the markets trended higher. Hence, the Tactical Investor saying; “every disaster leads to a hidden opportunity” and the only way to spot that opportunity is not to give in to panic. We envision a similar outcome for the coronavirus, the markets could still sell-off but that sell-off should be viewed through a bullish lens.

The mass mindset is hard wired to panic. One can overcome this shortfall by observing this behavior impartially and then ask this simple question “why am I doing something that has never led to a positive outcome”. Secondly, as we have advocated for years, one should maintain a trading journal and the best time to put pen to paper or fingers to a keyboard is when the markets are tanking. Make a note of the emotions that are swirling through your mind. Jot down some of the headlines the media is pushing out and observe the reactions from your fellowman. This information will prove to be priceless in the weeks, months, years and decades to come.

The markets are trading in the extremely overbought ranges on the weekly charts, and in theory, they should let out some steam, but the monthly charts, for now, are exerting more upward pressure than they normally do. It should be noted that the weekly charts also move relatively slowly, so there is still time for the markets to let out some steam.

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

What Will The Stock Market Return In 2020?

It’s the most wonderful time of the year — when investment gurus unveil their predictions for what the stock market will return in the coming year.

We expect investment experts to have crystal balls that allow them to see how the stock market is going to perform in the future. Of course, they don’t have crystal balls, and their predictions often aren’t helpful.

The problem with expert predictions of the stock market isn’t that they are wrong — which they often are — the future is uncertain, and we shouldn’t expect anyone to predict it. The problem is that investors often listen to these predictions and base investment decisions on them.

There are better ways to cope with the uncertainty of the 2020 market than listening to predictions. Before we get to those, let’s review what we can predict and what we cannot.

What We Can Predict
While the stock market follows a cycle but defies prediction, history can provide insight into what we might expect from the markets in any given year.

The histogram below displays the dispersion of returns on the S&P 500 since 1928:
As you can see, in about two-thirds of the years, the market is up and about one-third of the time it is down. The distribution is roughly a bell curve with a positive skew and a fat left tail (meaning large negative returns happen more often than a bell curve would predict). Full Story

The Top 15 Stocks to Buy in 2020

Heading into a new year, all investors want to know is what stocks they should be buying.

At the beginning of this year, I attempted to answer that question by compiling a portfolio of the top 15 stocks to buy for 2020. In mid-February, that portfolio of stocks was up a whopping 22% year-to-date.

Then, the novel coronavirus outbreak went global. Russia and Saudi Arabia started an all-out oil price war. Financial markets across the globe fell off a cliff. So did my portfolio of top stocks to buy for 2020.

But, I think now may be as good a time as any to double down on these top stocks. Coronavirus headwinds are fleeting. They will pass. Once they do, these long-term growth stocks will get back to winning.

In no particular order, the top 15 stocks to buy for 2020 in March are:

Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)
Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI)
Luckin Coffee (NYSE:LK)
Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND)
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)
Pinterest (NYSE:PINS)
Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC)
Square (NYSE:SQ)
The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD)
Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY)
Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA)
JD.Com (NASDAQ:JD)
Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX)
Nio (NYSE:NIO)
Snap (NYSE:SNAP)

Without further ado, then, let’s take a look where these top stocks to buy for 2020 are going next. Full Story

20 Predictions for the Stock Market in 2020

t’s a brand-new year, and boy, does 2020 have some big shoes to fill. Last year, we witnessed the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) gallop higher by nearly 29%, which is quadruple the historic average annual return of the stock market, inclusive of dividend reinvestment and when adjusted for inflation.

The big question, of course, is what might the current year hold for the broader market and investors? The following 20 predictions for the stock market in 2020 may offer some insight.
1. There will be no recession in 2020
Probably the biggest question on investors’ minds is whether a recession is brewing. While that does look to be the case following a very brief inversion of the two-year and 10-year Treasury bonds in late August, data from Credit Suisse, dating back to 1978, shows that the average recession doesn’t pop up until 22 months after the inversion occurs. Similarly, stock market returns don’t turn negative until an average of 18 months after an inversion, putting the market on track to lose its steam during the first quarter of 2021 (assuming these averages hold true).

For the time being, the longest economic expansion in U.S. history looks poised to continue.
2. The stock market will have another positive year
Despite the stock market delivering returns that were well above the historic norms in 2019, this year should deliver more gains to investors. Full Story

Benefits of eggs: Health Facts

Posted on 02/07/2023 by Yanis P.

If there was such a thing as a perfect food, eggs would be a contender. They’re readily available, easy to cook, affordable and packed with protein.

“The egg is meant to be something that has all the right ingredients to grow an organism, so obviously it’s very nutrient dense,” says Christopher Blesso, associate professor of nutritional science at the University of Connecticut in the US.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcbyfP61WdY

Eating eggs alongside other food can help our bodies absorb more vitamins, too. For example, one study found that adding an egg to salad can increase how much vitamin E we get from the salad.

But for decades, eating eggs has also been controversial due to their high cholesterol content – which some studies have linked to an increased risk of heart disease. One egg yolk contains around 185 milligrams of cholesterol, which is more than half of the 300mg daily amount of cholesterol that the US dietary guidelines recommended until recently.

Does that mean eggs, rather than an ideal food, might actually be doing us harm?
Cholesterol, a yellowish fat produced in our liver and intestines, can be found in every one of our body’s cells. We normally think of it as “bad”. But cholesterol is a crucial building block in our cell membranes. It also is needed for the body to make vitamin D, and the hormones testosterone and estrogen. Full Story

Israel election: Netanyahu in tough fight in this year’s second vote

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the snap election after failing to form a governing coalition with a viable majority after April’s vote.

The final opinion polls put his right-wing Likud party neck and neck with its main challenger, the centrist Blue and White party led by former military chief Benny Gantz.

Smaller parties could therefore have a big say in the final outcome. Full Story

Hong Kong: Looking back at 100 days of protests

Hong Kong has been gripped by huge and at times violent protests since an extradition bill was proposed which would have made it possible for people in Hong Kong to be extradited to mainland China.

The unrest has seen millions of people pressure the government to withdraw the bill and call for full democracy. Full Story

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