It is clear that the median price of existing homes has been increasing over the past few months, while the number of new existing home sales has been generally decreasing. This trend can be attributed to affordability issues facing potential homebuyers. With limited disposable income, many Americans are unable to allocate a significant portion of their budget towards monthly mortgage payments. As a result, the demand for existing homes has decreased, leading to a decline in sales. This trend may continue unless there is a significant increase in disposable income or a decrease in housing prices.
Recent trends in the housing market have shown that the median price of existing homes has increased significantly over the past few months, while the number of new existing home sales has decreased. This can be attributed to affordability issues faced by potential homebuyers. In some cases, monthly payments for a similar-priced home have increased by 50% compared to those purchased roughly 8 to 12 months ago.
Housing is a leading economic indicator and plays a significant role in the overall health of the economy. For most Americans, their home represents their largest investment, and housing wealth accounts for around half of their total household net worth. When housing prices decline, it can have a ripple effect on the economy. Consumers may spend less due to feeling poorer, tax revenues may decrease, homebuilders may scale back on building projects, construction workers may lose their jobs, and unemployment levels may rise.
A recent survey conducted by consultancy PwC showed that 50% of companies are planning to reduce their overall headcount, while 46% are dropping or reducing signing bonuses and 44% are rescinding job offers. These trends indicate that wage inflation, which was previously a concern, may now be shifting towards wage deflation. This could mean that Americans may need to continue working later in life rather than retiring at a certain age.
However, these trends also present opportunities for contrarian investors to look for deals in the housing market. When the market appears uncertain, it may be a good time to start looking for bargains. Experts often make the most noise at or near market bottoms, and it is likely that the market will bottom once the Federal Reserve takes action to support the economy and the stock market. Risk-takers can start looking for deals in what is now a buyers’ market, but it is important to take the time to find the best possible deal rather than rushing into a purchase.
Introduction: An Unexpected Warning Signal Could one number—commonly referred to as the stock market anxiety index—really foretell an oncoming catastrophe? ...
Let us take the huge headlines that the media is attempting to push that coronavirus instances have jeopardized in NY. Off course they’ve spiked; what exactly do you anticipate should you examine more individuals. That’s a false story; the media should concentrate on the facts. Though the Coronavirus mortality rate is trending upward, it comes nowhere near matching the damage brought on by smoking, cancer and a plethora of other diseases that kill more people than COVID. Among other matters, they discovered that the pupils’ resistance went every year under the easy strain of this exam period.
The way the deaths are listed in Italy leaves a great deal to be desired. Anyone going into the hospital using a coronavirus identification is deemed to have expired as a consequence of the coronavirus. Preexisting conditions aren’t taken under account. Bear in Mind an already weakened immune system today must cope with two or three problems, and so to suppose the departure was due to this coronavirus is again nothing short of voodoo science.
COVID mortality rate across all age groups
Based on Dr Maria Van Kerkhove of the World Health Organization, speaking in a digital press conference on Friday, the movement to use “physical distancing” stems from a desire to emphasize”maintaining the physical space from individuals so that we could stop the virus from moving to another” Continuing stress makes us vulnerable to disease and illness since the mind sends chemical signs to the endocrine system, which releases a range of hormones which not only makes us prepared for crisis situations but seriously depresses our immunity in precisely the exact same moment. Some specialists assert that anxiety is responsible for up to 90 percent of ailments and ailments, such as cancer and cardiovascular disease.
How it does this is by simply activating chemical reactions and flood your system with cortisol which, among other items, reduces inflammation, reduces white blood cells and NK cells (particular cells which kill cancer), raises tumour growth and growth and increases the speed of disease and tissue damage. https://bit.ly/2U9yNOw These findings opened the floodgates of study. Their meta-analysis discerned fascinating patterns. Laboratory studies that stressed individuals for a couple of minutes discovered a burst of a single kind of”first responder” action mixed with different indications of weakening.
For anxiety of any substantial length — from a few days to a couple of months or years, as occurs in real life — all facets of resistance went downhill. “So basically the age distribution of our patients is wired into older age and this is significant in raising the lethality.” A study in JAMA this week discovered that nearly 40 percent of ailments and 87 percent of deaths from the country happen to be in patients over 70 years past. And based on modelling, most the age group are very likely to want critical hospital maintenance — for example 80 percent of 80-somethings — placing immense pressure on the medical system. https://bit.ly/3aacIoG
The disinformation campaign is indeed rampant; I believed this something that I had to research straight to provide Tactical Investors a much better look at what’s really going. So, I chose to take the danger and fly to Asia without declaring it. I wished to see for myself when the US and the West, generally, was overreacting and when Asia had been doing a better job about the emotional frontier.
Thus far, I’ve seen Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, Singapore, and Indonesia and that I can honestly say they are doing a far better job of controlling the anxiety factor then we’re performing in the united states. Folks aren’t draining shelves left, right and centre that the only thing that appears to be selling like hotcakes are face masks. The comparison in how the Asians are coping with this scenario from a mental standpoint of opinion is humungous. The researchers noticed that insufficient social support was reported from the study for a risk factor for depression, and insight amplified in a 2005 analysis of school students.
COVID mortality rate in Italy
The entire health impact of anxiety, however, might not be completely revealed until the effects of ageing are more broadly appreciated. https://bit.ly/2QyZqdw And viola which looks like the case, so rather than attempting to calm the people, the authorities in the West do their very best to pressure out the elderly people which are facing other trying difficulties. By way of instance, pensions which don’t pay the price of living or insufficient medical assistance, etc..
High-stress levels can also lead to anxiety and depression, again resulting in high degrees of inflammation. From the long term, sustained, elevated levels of inflammation stage to an underactive, over-tired immune system which can not properly protect you. https://cle.clinic/3bct0xx If the leaders of the West but specifically, the US could behave in precisely the exact same way to instil calm in the people, the response could be different. Stress increases strain and anxiety, interrupts the immune system.
The extensive data recorded below clearly suggests that anxiety can be fatal, particularly to the older who in many cases have some type of preexisting disorder and extra pressure puts an excess burden on the already weakened immune system.
What stands out is the Coronavirus mortality rate across all age classes drops to 0.9percent once the people don’t have any preexisting ailments. Again, this is something which needs to be broadcasted rather than being buried. So, age is not a variable, era and preexisting conditions are the principal elements. And viola which looks like the case, so rather than attempting to calm the people, the authorities in the
West do their very best to pressure out the elderly people which are facing other trying difficulties. By way of instance, pensions which don’t pay the price of living or insufficient medical assistance, etc..
Though the amount of sufferers has jeopardized the Coronavirus mortality rate across all types has barely changed. If stress suppresses the immune systems of healthy people, then the consequences on those who often dread more and most of which have some inherent condition (particularly if they’re on a modern-day diet) should be more conspicuous. And maybe deadly in case they must take care of a virus or bacteria that’s more powerful than normal. As an instance, Jakarta is going to announce a state of crisis, and people aren’t running around in fear.
Malaysia is shutting down its own boundaries, and also the most important response was that Malaysians working in Singapore hurried back home to pack extra supplies and then led back to Singapore, where they’ll stay for a protracted period. If the boundary is closed, then they won’t have the ability to return, so they desired to ensure they had sufficient clothes etc. because of their long stay in Singapore. During severe stress lasting a couple of minutes, particular types of cells are mobilised to the blood, possibly preparing your system for trauma or disease during”flight or fight” [1]. Persistent stress lasting from days to many years, such as intense anxiety, is associated with high degrees of pro-inflammatory cytokines, but with possibly different health effects [3].
Another result of chronic pressure is that the activation of latent viruses. Latent virus detection may signify the reduction of immunological control within the virus, and regular activation may cause wear-and-tear on the immune system [5]. https://bit.ly/2U8Kjdi After deaths in the virus reached over 2,500, using a 150 percent rise in the previous week, health authorities have been combing through statistics to provide clues to help fight the spread of this disease. https://bloom.bg/2J6TG6I Ageing is associated with a natural drop in immune function. Immunosenescence is found in several aspects of innate and adaptive immunity. By way of instance, older folks have a weaker natural killer cell (NK) reaction to stimulatory cytokines than younger people [1]. Ageing is also related to diminished activation and proliferation of both T- and B-lymphocytes [2]. Additional the B-lymphocytes of older individuals produce less antibody than those of younger people [3].
Additionally, higher production of specific inflammatory mediators is discovered during aging [4]. These immunological changes render elderly people more vulnerable to a plethora of age-related ailments. But, immunosenescence seems to put older people at higher risk when coupled with collecting chronic disorders, repeated infections, or other outside variables [5]. Chronic stress could be among those variables leaving older people more vulnerable to age-related diseases [6,7]. https://bit.ly/33y4pRg Additionally, stress reduces the body’s lymphocytes — the white blood cells which help fight infection. The lower your lymphocyte degree, the more at risk you are for germs, including the frequent cold and cold sores.
Once more, one catches a glimpse of the way the media goes out of its way to frighten the people into believing the world is all about to finish. 99 percent of those that expired already had a present condition and most of the deaths are happening in a few of the most polluted regions of Italy. If you factor the ones that don’t have any prerequisite disorders/conditions, the death rate drops to 0.8 percent. Why is the media not highlighting this matter, why would they insist on panicking the older, the most exposed people in the populace?
Are they trying to hide something or will be the Doctor’s only too overworked to do the excess work? “Physicians in Italy have not been dealing with a couple of patients in care… but around 1,200,” says Dr Mike Ryan, wellness crises programme executive director in the World Health Organization. “The fact they are saving a lot of is a little miracle in itself.” https://bit.ly/3aacIoG “On re-evaluation from the National Institute of Health, just 12 percent of death certificates have proven a direct causality by a coronavirus, while 88 percent of individuals that have died have a minimum of one pre-morbidity — several had two or even three,” he states.
However there are different elements which might have led to Italy’s fatality prices, experts state. This includes a higher rate of pollution and smoking — the vast majority of deaths have been from the northern area Lombardy area, which is notorious for poor air quality. Among other matters, they discovered that the pupils’ resistance went every year under the easy strain of this exam period.
The information above clearly highlights why Italy has this abnormally large death rate and also this article (obviously ) affirms what all studies have confirmed those with already compromised immune systems are the most in danger. The meta-analysis also demonstrated that individuals who are elderly or sick are more inclined to stress-related resistant alterations. People who have chronic mild depression had poorer lymphocyte-T cellular responses to two mitogens, which version the way the body reacts to viruses and germs.
The immune reaction was down 18 months later, and resistance diminished with age. In accord with this 2004 meta-analysis, it seemed that the primary immune variable was the length, not seriousness, of melancholy. And in the instance of the elderly professionals, their melancholy and era intended a double-whammy for immunity. To top it, all specialists have produced this expression social distancing that’s perplexing many, and thus they’ve opted to develop another expression called Physical Action. Hysteria has gripped everybody, particularly in America and its feeding itself and if you put in stupidity and ineptitude from the elected officials, what ought to happen to be a moderate situation become a nightmare kind situation.
We’re supposedly the most advanced country in the world, but following the present debacle, an individual will be hard-pressed to phone the US innovative at least when it concerns the health sector. Had the US taken the exact same position as South Korea, the economies could have fared better and people would’ve panicked less since they’d have believed the problem was under control? The delay in testing is exactly what turned into a nervous audience to some hysterical mob.
With dismay, we see that the USA respond in unbecoming manners, rather than adding stability to the scenario the assortment of different commands and orders from several governors, bureaus, etc.. fostered even more dread in lieu of a feeling of hope. The economies are pulling back because of inherent economic conditions, but since folks feel as nobody knows what they’re doing.
Why devise all these phrases? Why don’t you simply say, hey you know to get just a little time that it will be better for those who do not get too near your relatives since they will be the most exposed and this really is but a temporary step?
This new expression adds more stress to an already worried out-group (the older ). The most vulnerable become more vulnerable because their immune systems are slowed as anxiety was demonstrated to decrease immunity. More than 99 percent of Italy’s coronavirus deaths were individuals who endured from past health problems, according to research by the nation’s federal health authority. Ageing is associated with a natural drop in immune function. Immunosenescence is found in several aspects of innate and adaptive immunity. By way of instance, older folks have a weaker natural killer cell (NK) reaction to stimulatory cytokines than younger people [1]. Ageing is also related to diminished activation and proliferation of both T- and B-lymphocytes [2].
Additional the B-lymphocytes of older individuals produce less antibody than those of younger people [3]. Additionally, higher production of specific inflammatory mediators is discovered during ageing [4]. These immunological changes leave elderly people more vulnerable to a plethora of age-related ailments. But, immunosenescence seems to put older people at higher risk when coupled with collecting chronic disorders, repeated infections, or other outside variables [5].
Chronic stress could be among those variables leaving older people more vulnerable to age-related diseases [6,7]. https://bit.ly/33y4pRg These findings opened the floodgates of study. Their meta-analysis discerned fascinating patterns. Laboratory studies that stressed individuals for a couple of minutes discovered a burst of a single kind of”first responder” action mixed with different indications of weakening. For anxiety of any substantial length — from a few days to a couple of months or years, as occurs in real life — all facets of resistance went downhill.
For you to figure out the death rate, it ends up to 1.28 percent, but rather than focusing on that, they will attempt to twist the spike into coronavirus is something of a jolt. More testing is helpful since it is going to lower the death rate as a bigger group of individuals will be analyzed rather than only those demonstrating the symptoms. On the other hand, the media concentrates on the negative facet or attempts to earn a manageable position seem to be completely out of control and nowhere else is that more obvious than in Italy. We’ll cover Italy soon.
COVID mortality rate analysis
The meta-analysis also demonstrated that individuals who are elderly or sick are more inclined to stress-related resistant alterations. People who have chronic mild depression had poorer lymphocyte-T cellular responses to two mitogens, which version the way the body reacts to viruses and germs. The immune reaction was down 18 months later, and resistance diminished with age. In accord with this 2004 meta-analysis, it seemed that the primary immune variable was the length, not seriousness, of melancholy. And in the instance of the elderly professionals, their melancholy and era intended a double-whammy for immunity.
If stress suppresses the immune systems of healthy people, then the consequences on those who often dread more and most of which have some inherent condition (particularly if they’re on a modern-day diet) should be more conspicuous. And maybe deadly in case they must take care of a virus or bacteria that’s more powerful than normal.
Introduction: An Unexpected Warning Signal Could one number—commonly referred to as the stock market anxiety index—really foretell an oncoming catastrophe? ...
In some ways, today’s stock market data is like MUSK; the guy is erratic and TSLA’s erratic stock price action clearly validates this point. He was caught smoking weed on camera, and he called Vernon Unsworth a “pedo guy”; in 2018 he stated he wanted to take Tesla private and was sued by the SEC for securities fraud. Last but not least, Tesla is still losing money selling cars. Hence, the logical conclusion would be that one should short the stock, and if you did that, you would have lost your shirt, pants and your knickers.
In 2020, bears lost north of $8 billion as a result of their shorts. The recent parabolic spike in Tesla’s stocks price was due to a massive short squeeze. On the same token, this market should have crashed long ago, and those that bet against it have paid dearly. The moral of the story is simple; when it comes to the market, the focus should be on the psychological state of the masses and not on logic. In Tesla’s case, if one applied Mass Psychology, one would have noticed that the stock has a cult-like following and secondly, the bad news was not having a massive impact on the price of the stock. Sure the stock let out a large dose of steam, but that is natural for a stock that has been on a tear.
Investor sentiment and Market Cycles
This chart quite accurately captures the state of the mass mindset; however, the funny part is that very few put this information to use, including the individuals/organisations that create these lovely charts.
According to the Wall Street Journal, there is a record 3.4 trillion in cash sitting on the sidelines. This money will eventually find its way into the market and push markets higher, but the more important factor to pay attention to is that the crowd is still far from bullish. Looking at the sentiment below; the only consistency we can find is that there is no consistency. Bullish sentiment has not remained above 60% for 3 weeks in a row for years on end. In fact, we can’t recall seeing the sentiment above 60% for three weeks in a row since the inception of this bull market and that is a very telling development indeed.
This sentiment data was tabulated before Friday’s sell-off; therefore it appears that the crowd was already spooked before Friday’s sell-off further cementing the view that a sharp pullback has to be viewed as a blessing in disguise. Market Update Jan 31, 2020
If you compare the current sentiment data to that in the last update, bearish readings remain unchanged but bullish readings rose a bit. Now does that make any sense; the crowd panicked and then turned bullish and the markets surged to new highs and the bears still dominate. This type of action clearly pinpoints that the main dominant theme is that the masses are still uncertain.
Media Hysteria over the Coronavirus: what gives?
According to Worldometers
Quick facts:
Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses.
This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.
Sources and info:
Seasonal flu death estimate increases worldwide – CDC
Up to 650 000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year – World Health Organization (WHO) http://bit.ly/32wVaQA
Why the hysteria when so far roughly 3K individuals have succumbed to the coronavirus? What gives? Weaponised news, that’s what gives.
Conclusion
If you are an investor with a long term view then all sharp corrections should be viewed through a bullish lens as history indicates that markets revert to the mean. This massive sell-off is driven by fear and when the fear subsides the markets will resume their upward trend. The trend as per our Trend Indicator is still positive, so Tactical Investors should view all sharp pullbacks through a bullish lens.
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
Coronavirus: Fear returns to stock markets
Global stock markets have fallen sharply as investors continue to worry about the broader economic effects of the coronavirus.
London’s FTSE 100 share index fell more than 3% and there were similar declines in other European markets.
In the US, upbeat data on hiring and unemployment failed to buoy investors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed almost 1% lower, while the Nasdaq slumped 1.8% and S&P 500 ended down 1.7%.
The monthly report from the US Labor Department found US employers added 273,000 jobs in February – significantly beating expectations – while the jobless rate fell back to near a 50-year low of 3.5%.
The report also revised up estimates of job gains in January and December, finding 85,000 more than previously understood.
The surveys, however, reflect data collected before the outbreak intensified. In recent weeks, global travel has plunged, while work, school and shopping has been disrupted in many countries.
The economic strength signalled in the report is a “little like the saying, the car was in fine condition before being involved in a collision”, said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate.com.
Earlier on Friday, markets in Asia had seen big falls, with Japan’s Nikkei share index dropping by 2.7%.
The 3.6% drop in the FTSE 100 wiped out the gains seen earlier this week on the index. Full Story
US stocks halted after falling 7%. Global stocks plunge as oil crashes and coronavirus fear spreads
Hong Kong/New York/London (CNN Business)Global markets are plunging after the implosion of an alliance between OPEC and Russia caused the worst one-day crash in crude prices in nearly 30 years, fueling panic triggered by the escalation of the coronavirus epidemic.
The S&P 500 (SPX) fell about 6%. The Dow (INDU) fell as many as 2,046 points. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) was down 5.4%. The New York Stock Exchange halted trading for 15 minutes after stocks plunged more than 7%. They retraced some of their losses after the market reopened.
The sell-off carried over into Asia Pacific, where Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended 7.3% lower on Monday, the index’s biggest plunge since October 2008. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (N225) sank 5.1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) lost 4.2%, while China’s Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) shed 3%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, meanwhile, fell below 0.5%, hitting record lows. The panic began after Saudi Arabia shocked oil markets by launching a price war. The kingdom is trying to retake global market share after Russia refused Friday to go along with OPEC’s efforts to rescue the oil market from a plunge in demand caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
Making matters worse, the novel coronavirus continues to weigh heavily on investors as it deals an unexpected shock to the economy. The virus has infected more than 108,000 people and is throwing many countries into turmoil. Full Story
Who’s buying stocks? Executives at TripAdvisor, Newell Brands and other companies are buying at low prices
In his investing book “The Vital Few vs. the Trivial Many: Invest With the Insiders, Not the Masses,” George Muzea argues that the best time to purchase stocks is when “those in the know” are buying, and “those not in the know” are selling.
People in the know are corporate insiders like directors and top managers who get daily reports on sales trends and projections, and who can read the body language and other signals inside companies.
They’re buying like crazy in the coronavirus-led bear market, which has pushed down the S&P 500 Index by 12% Monday alone.
I’ve tracked insider buying on a daily basis for over 10 years, because it’s a big part of how I select names for my stock newsletter, “Brush Up on Stocks,” launched in 2010. The current wave of insider buying is as big as any I’ve seen during the great panics of the bull market — all of which were followed by rebounds.
Importantly, insiders are going straight to all the sectors that will supposedly get hit hardest by the virus: air travel, amusement parks, restaurants and economically sensitive areas like basic materials, energy and industrials. They are doing so with repeated, large purchases. There’s virtually no insider buying in classic defensive areas like consumer staples. Full Story
Will Bitcoin Crash or Backbreaking Correction? (Bitcoin Crash Chart) The dot.com insanity experienced a backbreaking amendment before the market launched ...
The Coronavirus issue is going to be blown out of all proportions and it will be made to look like the mother of all pandemics. In fact, we are seeing individuals that are not qualified to make projections on the rate this virus will spread, stating that millions upon millions will be affected. This could be true, but most of the experts making these proclamations have no background in biology or virology; their main qualification is that they have a PhD in BS.
We feel this is a test by the big players that control most of the media outlets to see how far the truth can be stretched and so far it’s working marvellously. It is estimated that eight corporations control the bulk of the media in the US.
Now people are being checked with thermometers to see if their temp is above normal and an above-normal temperature has now become the litmus test for the Coronavirus; voodoo science at its best. This is one of the most retarded medical tests of all time, but no one seems to notice; a real-life depiction of “Pluto’s Allegory of the cave”.
Statistics from the CDC
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1). The number of influenza-associated illnesses that occurred last season was similar to the estimated number of influenza-associated illnesses during the 2012–2013 influenza season when an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness6.http://bit.ly/2UMJjMG
In comparison to the flu virus, the Coronavirus has caused a minimal amount of damage yet it has received 100X more coverage than the flu virus, which resulted in 34.200 deaths (and only US data is being used); the current death toll of the Coronavirus stands at 1113 (based on the latest data). It’s no laughing matter, but it still pales in comparison to those caused by the flu.
Worldwide, tobacco use causes more than 7 million deaths per year.2 If the pattern of smoking all over the globe doesn’t change, more than 8 million people a year will die from diseases related to tobacco use by 2030. http://bit.ly/2wcEl1s
Many of the masks that individuals are wearing are not that useful against viruses and even the masks that might provide protection need to be worn correctly. http://bit.ly/2HklQKB. Other experts state that masks are useless as the virus is spread through the eyes. http://bit.ly/2SCjfkw
Coronavirus and the boy who cried wolf
We feel the technique being used here is the one that comes from the story “the boy who cried wolf” from Aesop’s Fables. The idea here we think is to push the crowd to the edge over a situation that while troublesome is not as bad as it is being made out to be. When the masses discover this, they won’t be too happy so the next time it happens, they won’t react in the same manner as the assumption will be “this is a big fuss over nothing” and that is precisely when things will run amok. For the record, we hope we are wrong.
At some point in time, something is bound to occur as humans are destroying this planet at an unprecedented rate. If any other creature took the same path, it would be labelled a virus, but “humans” are the so-called chosen ones so they can do whatever they see fit to do.
The equation must balance, and it always does; it just a question of time. However, time is also the only teacher that kills all its students without fail. This discussion is beyond the scope of this publication, so we will stop here.
The markets were extremely overbought
Hence we feel that everyone, including individuals we once thought based their ideas on logic, are pushing out information with one goal in mind; they want to create a stampede, and they succeeded as the masses always fall for the same ploy. The mass mindset refuses to look at the data in a cool manner after the seeds of doubt are implanted; it’s just a matter of time before the crowd cracks and gives in to far-fetched scenarios
There is always one backbreaking correction before the end of the bull market as this bull market is extremely unusual in terms of its duration, it will likely experience two such events before dying of old age. The current correction could fall under the backbreaking category. The coronavirus is just the trigger for such an event. If it were not the coronavirus, some other event would have been found to justify the correction.
What’s going to happen now is that the masses will panic and regret it when the markets recoup. However, they will then falsely assume that the next mega correction will follow the same path, and when its time to bail out, they will continue to buy, and we all know what happens after that. At a certain point, buy the dip does not work, and that point is reached when the masses turn euphoria.
Bull Markets and Corrections
Backbreaking corrections are always painful; hence the term backbreaking; however, unlike the old days, one can’t tell which correction will turn into the backbreaking event. Look at how many times the market conned the bears over the past ten years into shorting and 90% of those shorts turned to massive losses as the market reversed course just as fast.
Even if you have one big home run, it will not cover the 90% lose rate, and more importantly, we doubt that most of the bears had the staying power to hang in there until their bets paid off. The markets are controlled by machines now, and these machines are programmed to start selling when specific targets are hit, and one selloff selling triggers another set of selling until the cycle ends. The cycle will end, and the markets will rise for no bull market has ended on a note of uncertainty. However, keep in mind these machines are programmed by humans; hence, the only difference now is that instead of humans pressing the sell button, machines are doing it.
The media will push massive stories now talking about the upcoming bear market, ignore this noise and focus on one event; the masses were not euphoric when the markets started selling off.
Now try to spot the great depression, Black Monday.etc. Every one of this end of the world events proved to be a buying opportunity, and that includes the notorious crash of 2008, which proved to the mother of all buying opportunities. If you look at all those “end of the world” events closely, they are blips in an otherwise massive upward trend.
There are always going to be days, weeks and sometimes months when the markets are down, but ultimately the market has trended in one direction and that is “up”. Massive fortunes were made by viewing these disaster type events through a bullish lens. We also have Mass Psychology and the Trend Indicator on our side, both of which indicate that this downtrend at most could turn out be the backbreaking correction we spoke of recently. Every Bull Market experiences at least one and 90% of the traders falsely assume that this event marks the beginning of an extended bearish trend.
The markets always return to the mean and hence the saying the greater the deviation from the mean the better the opportunity. History clearly illustrates that ultimately, the market trends in one direction only (up).
Don’t Fall For This Rubbish
The guys predicting the demise of the world will have to crawl under the rock they emerged from when this incident passes away as has been the case with all the previous end of the world scenarios. The current pullback/crash should be viewed through a bullish lens for the long term trader.
This could prove to be a fantastic buying opportunity for traders willing to take a risk. Don’t focus on the short term but on the long term, history indicates that the markets have an uncanny ability to trend upwards. Bears that have been beating the markets will crash have a dismal long term record. Markets trend upwards once the dust settles and this time will prove to be no different
Take a look at how many people die a day from other causes and the flu http://bit.ly/32wVaQA
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
Stocks Surge as Central Banks Vow to Act on Coronavirus
Stocks surged in the final minutes of trading on Monday, snapping back from one of the worst weeks for global markets since the 2008 financial crisis as investors seized on promises that the world’s governments would step in to help if the global economy was slammed by the outbreak of the coronavirus.
The S&P 500 jumped 4.6 percent, the biggest single-day leap since late December 2018. The rally followed news that central bankers from the world’s biggest economies would join a conference call with Group of 7 finance ministers on Tuesday to discuss a response to the outbreak, fueling expectations among investors that governments might lower interest rates in tandem.
“It has already stoked expectations of a coordinated cut,” Roberto Perli, a former Fed researcher who is now an economist at Cornerstone Macro, said in an email. “If it doesn’t happen, it will only add to market volatility.”
But Mr. Perli did not see it as a sign that a simultaneous cut with other global central banks was necessarily coming. Nor did Seth Carpenter, another former Fed researcher, now at UBS. “The rally in equities today has perversely probably made it easier for the Fed to sit back and wait to see what happens,” he said in an email. Full Story
The Stock Market Might Not Reflect the Full Impact of Coronavirus
Although China said last Friday that half of major industrial firms in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shanghai were back to work after the coronavirus quarantine, Gavekal Research analyst Andrew Batson notes few are operating at capacity. Batson examined traffic congestion in China’s largest wealthiest cities, coal use at six major power producers, and property sales volumes across 30 major Chinese cities. While each measure has stabilized after plummeting since mid-January, all remain significantly depressed.
Batson’s findings suggest the impact of the coronavirus outbreak is far from priced into financial markets, meaning stocks could have further to fall after Monday’s brutal selloff.
So far this week the S&P 500 has tumbled 4.4%, erasing this year’s gains and leaving the index down 1.2% on the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, has dropped 4.4% and is down 3% this year. The turmoil began Monday following news over the weekend that the virus is spreading beyond China. A surge of cases were reported in South Korea, Iran and Italy. The World Health Organization said in its latest update Monday that outside of China, there were 2074 cases of coronavirus and 23 deaths in 28 countries.
The economy as a whole still looks to be operating at less than half of normal capacity, Batson says, adding that although those figures should continue to pick up, “a full return to normal still awaits a definitive all-clear signal.” Full Story
Financial markets around the globe slumped on Monday as news of the Italian coronavirus outbreak wiped £62bn off the value of the FTSE 100 and shares on Wall Street tumbled.
Shares came under heavy selling pressure in key markets as analysts warned that the threat of tougher quarantine measures outside China to prevent the spread of the disease would hit company profits by hitting supply chains and consumer demand. Investors rushed to buy “safe haven” investments such as gold to protect against steep losses on the stock markets, sending the price of the precious metal to a seven-year high of $1,683 (£1,303) an ounce.
US stock markets had their worst day in two years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 1,000 points, or about 3%, in New York as investors in the world’s largest economy priced in the possibility of a deeper global economic shock.
In a note to investors Goldman Sachs cut its US growth forecast from 1.4% to just 1.2% for the first quarter. “An increasing amount of companies [are] suggesting potential production cuts should supply chain disruptions persist into Q2 or later,” wrote Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief US economist
The FTSE 100 index in London lost 247 points to 7,156.83, a 3.3% drop and its worst worst percentage fall since January 2016. Among the worst-hit stocks on the list of the UK’s biggest public companies was the budget airline easyJet, which lost £1bn in value as the stock fell by more than 16%. Full Story
Mcdonalds menu: McDonald’s boss Steve Easterbrook fired after dating employee
McDonald’s has fired its chief executive Steve Easterbrook after he had a relationship with an employee.
The US fast food giant said the relationship was consensual, but Mr Easterbrook had “violated company policy” and shown “poor judgement”.
In an email to staff, the British businessman acknowledged the relationship and said it was a mistake.
“Given the values of the company, I agree with the board that it is time for me to move on,” he said.
Mr Easterbrook, 52, who is divorced, first worked for McDonald’s in 1993 as a manager in London before working his way up the company.
He left in 2011 to become boss of Pizza Express and then Asian food chain Wagamama, before returning to McDonald’s in 2013, eventually becoming its head in the UK and northern Europe.
He was appointed chief executive of McDonald’s in 2015.
Mr Easterbrook is widely credited with revitalising the firm’s menus and restaurants by remodelling stores and using better ingredients. The value of its shares more than doubled during his tenure in the US.
Under his leadership, Mcdonald’s menu also expanded its delivery and mobile payment options to emphasise convenience.
The fast food giant’s board voted on Watford-born Mr Easterbrook’s departure on Friday after a review.
He has also stepped down as McDonald’s president and member of the board. Full Story
Is this the world’s scariest island?
Stromboli is the most remote of Italy’s seven Aeolian Islands. This summer, two major explosions shook the island, killing an Italian hiker and causing 70 people to be evacuated. Still, 300 residents chose to live directly under one of the world’s most active volcanoes and love this magnetic island. Full Story
Uncovering the pyramid of Polynesia consumed by the jungle
The Pulemelei Mound is one of the most important archaeological sites in Polynesia. Mostly referred to as a pyramid, the reasons for its construction remain unknown. Full Story
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Nobel Prize 2019: Three scientists who discovered how cells sense and adapt to oxygen levels.
Sir Peter Ratcliffe, of the University of Oxford and Francis Crick Institute, William Kaelin, of Harvard, and Gregg Semenza, of Johns Hopkins University share the physiology or medicine prize.
Their work is leading to new treatments for anaemia and even cancer.
The role of oxygen-sensing is also being investigated in diseases from heart failure to chronic lung disease.
The Swedish Academy, which awards the prize, said: “The fundamental importance of oxygen has been understood for centuries, but how cells adapt to changes in levels of oxygen has long been unknown.”
Oxygen levels vary in the body, particularly:
during exercise
at high altitude
after a wound disrupts the blood supply
And when they drop, cells rapidly have to adapt their metabolism.
Why does this matter? The oxygen-sensing ability of the body has a role in the immune system and the earliest stages of development inside the womb.
If oxygen levels are low, it can trigger the production of red blood cells or the construction of blood vessels to remedy this.
More red blood cells mean the body is able to carry more oxygen and is why athletes train at altitude.
So, drugs that mimic it may be an effective treatment for anaemia. Full STory
‘Sex for grades’: Undercover in West African universities
Academic institutions in West Africa have increasingly been facing allegations of sexual harassment by lecturers. This type of abuse is said to be endemic, but it’s almost never proven.
After gathering dozens of testimonies, BBC Africa Eye sent undercover journalists posing as students inside the University of Lagos and the University of Ghana. Full Story
What Japan can teach us about cleanliness?
The students sit with their satchels on their desks, eager to get home after another long day of seven 50-minute classes. They listen patiently as their teacher makes a few announcements about tomorrow’s timetable. Then, as every day, the teacher’s final words: “OK everybody, today’s cleaning roster. Lines one and two will clean the classroom. Lines three and four, the corridor and stairs. And line five will clean the toilets.” Full Story
Introduction: An Unexpected Warning Signal Could one number—commonly referred to as the stock market anxiety index—really foretell an oncoming catastrophe? ...
And that is how the Pension lie was conceived; continue reading to find out the details:
The world will end, the US dollar will crash, Gold will soar to the Moon, and Pigs will fly over it. Well, we added the last bit to throw in some humour. Are you not sick of the stories about how things are only set to worsen? If you add all the proclamations made by these so-called wise men for the past 100 years, the world as we know it should have ended several times over.
It has not pointed out that all those wise pundits were wise only when compared to the reliable donkey. Life is very short, and most people spend a vast amount of their time focussing on what was, what should be and what could be. How about trying a new approach? Enjoy the moment; that is all you have. If you have a decent roof over your head, money in the bank and food, you are infinitely better off than over 50% of the world. Let that sink in for a moment. Anything more than that pushes you even further up the rung of well-being.
Early Pension Pitfalls: Seeking Wealth Is Not Bad, But…..
At least seek it with a smile and not a frown. Enjoy the day as a child would. Have you seen how children can have so much fun with so little and how they can’t even have half the fun when they grow up despite having 10 times more? We seek things that we are not even sure we need; the seeds were incepted starting from your first trip to the brainwashing centre (otherwise known as school), and if allowed to grow, these fears turn into gigantic monsters.
For example, each year, experts state that people need more and more money to retire; here is the sad fact: By the time the average person retires, he/she will be a living zombie. Free thought will be a thing of the past. Worse yet, you work until you are 65, but the average life expectancy in the USA is 78.6 years.
So let’s get this straight, give up the best years of your life, worry throughout that time if you will have enough to retire, and you only have 13 years to enjoy it. Well, it sounds perfectly sane, doesn’t it? Waste the best years of your life, worrying about the worst years of your life. What could possibly go wrong with such a scenario? Remember that the average life expectancy has been dropping in the USA for the third year in a row.
Early retirement Lie; One needs significantly less than the experts claim
The sad fact is you don’t even need half of the ridiculous figures experts are pushing because even at ¼ of the stated figures which are surpassing one million, most of the world’s population stands no chance of achieving the stated goal. The stated goal, like everything mass media and the experts push, is to get the masses to buy into the lie they are selling and sow the seeds of doubt. Doubt then gives way to fear and paranoia and the rest, as they say, is history.
How do people get their info? Don’t they see the world through a prism? What is this prism for most individuals: TV and Mass Media? What if the intention were to provide the masses with the wrong image or ideas, therefore no matter how hard they tried to solve the problem, they would fail, as they would be analysing the wrong data. Think of Pluto’s allegory of the caves.
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
Random views on Withdraw pension early
Early pension release, or unlocking, means withdrawing money from your pension before the age of 55. Unless you meet specific conditions, you’ll be charged a substantial amount of tax and could risk losing all of your savings to scammers.
Can I release money from my pension?
Following pension reforms in 2015, you can now withdraw as much of your pension as you want from the age of 55. There are some exceptions that entitle you to access your pension earlier, but you may have to pay high fees. Whatever age you decide to withdraw your pension, there are a few things you’ll need to consider.
Once you’ve had your 55th birthday, you can release money from your personal or workplace pension. You can withdraw up to 25% of your pot tax-free, either as a lump sum or in smaller instalments adding up to 25%. It doesn’t matter how big or small your pension pot is, everyone is entitled to take a quarter of their savings without paying income tax.
There are four main options when deciding what to do with the remainder of your pension. You can cash out your pension and withdraw your entire pot in one go or in a series of lump sums. If you choose this method, it’s important to consider the tax implications, as large withdrawals can push you into a higher tax band, especially if you’re still employed and earning a salary. Full Story
Changes to pension rules introduced in 2015 mean you’ve greater access to your pension. But you still need to be wary of pension liberation scams, claiming you can access your pension early.
Pension liberation scammers claim they can get your money from pensions before you’re 55, but the vast fees and taxes you’ll pay can leave you with little for retirement, and now scammers are targeting the over-55s as well.
Changes to pensions that came into effect in April 2015 mean that from age 55 onwards, you can access as much of your pension money as you like, when you want it.
Despite these changes, the crucial fact remains that you can only access your pension pot when you turn 55. This means that ‘pension liberators’, who claim you can access your pension money sooner, are trying to get you to break the law.
Pension liberation
Pension liberation is a scam that claims to release cash from people’s pension pots before they reach age 55. Promises of early cash are false and are likely to result in you paying big bills, sometimes leaving people with no savings for retirement. Do NOT confuse this with Pensions Liberation Day, which some people call the day (6 April) when pension freedom came into effect.
Victims are usually contacted by email, phone, or text by fraudsters trying to trick them into transferring their pension funds to bogus arrangements for a commission fee. Full Story
Use this guide to determine if you can take money out of your pension at age 55. It contains some of the key facts and information you need to consider and ends with answers to some of the most common questions we are asked.
The headline facts at a glance
As long as you are 55 or over and have the right kind of pension, you can withdraw money from it. The amount you withdraw is completely up to you, and the first 25% is tax-free. As you might have guessed, the rest is taxed as income. It is worth mentioning that taking money from your pension in this way is often referred to as pension access or pension release.
Are you eligible for pension release?
Why are so many people taking money from their pension early?
Thousands of people across the UK are taking money from their pension pot early to tackle a pressing need or opportunity. In our experience, some of the most common reasons include:
I am tackling a long-standing financial commitment such as a mortgage, loan or credit card.
We support a family member with a big life event such as a wedding or deposit.
Making essential upgrades to the house.
These are just a few examples, and you might have a completely different reason for wanting to take money early from your pension.
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Forever Quantitative Easing is here to stay and this means until it ends, every backbreaking correction has to be treated as a mouth-watering opportunity.
The term forever QE has just started to come into play recently, and mainstream media is most likely going to embrace this term and weaponise it in not so distant future. However, we first addressed this phenomenon back in in 2015 and here is the link that details what was said at that time https://bit.ly/2CILKGi
The outlook has only worsened since then; the new tax breaks corporations got will be used to purchase more shares, and the reason is simple, it pays more in the short term to boost profits by reducing share count than in investing in the company. Corporations will continue down this path until new laws are enacted and they will become more emboldened with time. Gone are the days where there was a semblance of caring for the investor; insiders are only concerned with how much they can make and they don’t care if they destroy the company in the process. Share buybacks are rising and have continued to grow since we first posted that article.
Buybacks appear to be nearing a crescendo, with total U.S. stock repurchase announcements crossing the $1 trillion mark in mid-December for the first time, according to Michael Schoonover, the portfolio manager of the Catalyst Buyback Strategy fund (ticker: BUYIX). “There’s been a significant pickup in recent weeks,” with markets in a downdraft, he adds. Announcements reached $1.08 trillion, with nearly half concentrated in 19 companies, which account for $460 billion of the total. Some of those are listed in the nearby table. Despite the record-setting buyback authorization levels, 2018 has been an unusual year in that fewer companies are accounting for the total buybacks, he says. Full Story
Take this as an early warning that should the media jackasses start pushing another B.S story, instead of panicking, one should break out of a bottle of champagne, and as the masses panic calmly sip on that champagne and build a list of strong stocks one always wanted to purchase. For those allergic to work, the option is simple; sit back and relax, for we always view crash type events as opportune moments when the trend is positive. Market update Feb 28, 2019
Mass Media Fails To Account For Forever Quantitative Easing
The wise guys at the Mass Media outlets are already pushing a new narrative. This is how they incept new ideas into the masses; you create doubt and then let that doubt grow. For example, they are making all sorts of dire predictions about Brexit (some of which border on the preposterous), they keep focussing on the calamitous consequences the US will face if there is no trade deal with China, experts are emerging about the dangers of lower rates and an inverted yield curve, etc. Well, think of any garbage and add it to this list. For that is what these garbage collectors do, they collect waste and try to spin it off as something valuable.
Before the Brexit vote, the naysayers made a great deal of noise of how a “yes” vote would lead to total chaos. So, what happened to that chaotic scene they predicted? We are not taking sides but looking at trends and history, and history is replete with examples illustrating that when “fear” is used as a weapon, the ones to fear are the ones putting this weapon to use.
History also demonstrates that in general individuals favour freedom over serfdom. Independence can never lead to chaos unless you are impinging on another person’s sovereignty in the process. Whatever narrative the Media is pushing, it is usually the opposing narrative that is true. According to the experts, the world should have ended several times over, and the Dow should have crashed and never risen years ago.
Lesson Number 3 in Investing For Dummies
Naysayers are always wrong in the long run:
One theme running through all those gloomy predictions of doom is that those making those dire predictions are doomed to be wrong. Case and point, the dire predictions market experts have made since the market bottomed in 2009. Or the idiotic stance by politicians such AOC on Amazon opening a new Head Quarters in NYC. This plan would have increased Tax revenues significantly and provided 25K plus jobs. Sam Zell, had some choice words on this topic, that pithily summarises the Amazon fiasco. Observe the video, and you will get a laugh from it as this is another one of those hot mike events
Whether Amazon is fair in the way it conducts its business operations is a separate story; in terms of trends, companies like Amazon need to stop some of their predatory practices or risk being suddenly upended. AI is gaining traction at a stunning rate, and it is going to help many small companies take on industry giants at a speed that will stun these dinosaurs. While experts state that it could AI years to compete with Humans; we feel a major announcement could be made within the next 18-39 months that will stun the world. If this announcement is made, then AI will be smarter than humans in less than 36 months from the date of that announcement.
Investing For Dummies: Lesson 4
When uncertainty is running high, the markets are likely to trend higher.
The masses are still uncertain, and we find uncertainty adorable; nothing is more bullish for the markets than an undecided crowd.
The best time to buy is when the masses are in panic mode, and when one feels far from certain about the future of the markets; certainty is the secret word for failure when it comes to the stock markets. Market Update Feb 28, 2019
What is striking is that over the past several weeks the number of individuals in the Neutral camp has hardly budged and is gently trending upwards. Since the last update, we have two sets of new readings. Last week the number of individuals in the neutral camp stood at 39, this week they increased to 41. So far in 2019, the number of individuals in the neutral camp has always surpassed those in the bullish or bearish camps, and this is very revealing. It clearly indicates that the masses are suffering from a long term bias and that the political landscape is messing with their ability to distinguish reality from fiction.
Until we have a feeding frenzy stage this bull market will not end
While you might feel sorry for them, just watch Pluto’s allegory of the cave to see how well the masses will reward you for trying to wake them up. In a nutshell, this development is a very bullish factor for it means that eventually, this market is going to experience what could turn out to be an extreme “feeding frenzy stage”. The crowd will ultimately be so mad they sat and did nothing for so long, that they will double up on this market and their sweet reward as always will be a very sharp guillotine.
Masses will eventually embrace this bull
However, contrarian players will mistake the initial surge in bullishness as a sign that the markets are ready to top out and will end up shedding a lot of tears in the process. At the Tactical Investor, our strategy is different; we will not adopt a position that opposes the masses until the crowd is in a state of ecstasy, in other words, the bandwagon of joy should be ready to collapse before we consider betting against the masses.
As the masses held off for so long, the buying climax could last for an extended period. Remember the equation must always balance. As we are quite far from the “feeding frenzy stage”, there is no point in wasting too much time on it. Suffice to say, this bull market is not ready to die.
This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion. Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one. Market Update Feb 28, 2019
Conclusion
One should remember the paragraph above every time the urge to panic starts to rise; no bull market has ever ended on a note of fear or anxiety. Despite the media trying to create a new narrative to prove otherwise for the past several years; they have failed miserably. And this illustrates that news, in general, should either be treated as rubbish or viewed through a humorous lens.
In terms of the stock market, until the Fed changes its mind, all sharp corrections have to be viewed as buying opportunities, and backbreaking corrections have to be placed in the category of “once in a lifetime events”, provided of course the trend is positive. That is what we are here for; to inform you if the trend is positive (Up) or negative (down).
The world is going to witness a Fed that has decided to make a cocktail of Coke, Heroin, Crack and Meth and take it all in one shot. Imagine what a junkie on this combination of potent drugs is capable of doing, and you will have an idea of where the Fed is heading in the years to come. Market Update Feb 28, 2019
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
Random views on Stock investing for dummies
History has shown that investing in stocks is one of the easiest and most profitable ways to build wealth over the long-term. With a handful of notable exceptions, almost every member of the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest people got there because they own a large block of shares in a public or private corporation. Although your beginning may be humble, this guide to investing in stocks will explain what stocks are, how you can make money from them, and much more.
Have you ever asked yourself, “What is stock?” or wondered why shares of stock exist? This introduction to the world of investing in stocks will provide answers to those questions and show you just how simple Wall Street really is. It may turn out to be one of the most important articles you’ve ever read if you don’t understand what stocks represent. Find out the answer to “What is Stock?” and how it comes to exist …
You probably know that investing in stocks is a way to get rich but very few new investors actually realize how you make money from your shares of stock. Now, you don’t have to wonder any longer. Let’s show you the two ways you can profit from owning and investing in stocks, and some of the factors that determine how fast a company grows. Find out how to make money from owning stocks … Full Story
Investing in stocks is an excellent way to grow wealth. But how do you actually start? Follow the steps below to learn how to invest in the stock market.
1. Decide how you want to invest in stocks
There are several ways to approach stock investing. Choose the option below that best represents how you want to invest, and how hands-on you’d like to be in picking and choosing the stocks you invest in.
“I’m the DIY type and am interested in choosing stocks and stock funds for myself.” Keep reading; this article breaks down things hands-on investors need to know. Or, if you already know the stock-buying game and just need a brokerage, see our roundup of the best online stock brokers.
“I know stocks can be a great investment, but I’d like someone to manage the process for me.” You may be a good candidate for a robo-advisor, a service that offers low-cost investment management. Virtually all of the major brokerage firms offer these services, which invest your money for you based on your specific goals. See our top picks for robo-advisors.
Once you have a preference in mind, you’re ready to shop for an account.
2. Open an investing account
Generally speaking, to invest in stocks, you need an investment account. For the hands-on types, this usually means a brokerage account. For those who would like a little help, opening an account through a robo-advisor is a sensible option. We break down both processes below. Full Story
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